Channel Hold or Channel Fold? Emini SPX
Diupdate
Tested channel after 8:30 numbers. A hold today and rally would be very bullish a fail underneath and a retest of the channel from underneath would likely be bearish. No decision until after cash opens and even then expect a lot of trickery. PUT/CALL is bearish so another swing up would not surprise me but I'm going to let price action decide.
Catatan
Starting to lose the channel, cash session may come up to test it if it's much lower. Catatan
Sort of a picasso like head and shoulders, if it plays out (BIG IF) then the target is around 3650 - also a support level Catatan
at open, I expect another test of the neckline. Above 3750 again and it will start to look like a bullish reversal. Catatan
shouldn't have said "expect" in the last chart - but rather "watching out for"Catatan
Trying to hold onto the channel, I still think they will move up to surprise shorts before a larger move down, but that can be wrong. Just waiting here, still short aapl and spy but not heavy. Catatan
Channel lost, they couldn't hold it and make a rally first. Technical traders will see this as very bearish. Catatan
On SPX cash we really haven't broken the channel trendline and it bothers me that this is the case. It is very possible this is just a B of an ABC and so I want to urge caution. It looks more bearish on futures, but when I see discrepancies like this I get cautious. Catatan
SPY looking similar - a close today above 368 on spy and I would urge caution for shorts into next week. Catatan
IF they recapture 3730 today on futures the daily candle will look like a false breakdown and we go higher likely next week. I will update if that happens. Catatan
SPY looks like it lost trend. lower into EOD would be good for bears. A recapture by EOD would be good for bulls.Catatan
Catatan
SPY at a support level and the .618 fib - typical buy zone for many. I'm taking some profit here in case something weird happens and they reverse it. Catatan
bear flag continuation to 3580 likely. Will reevaluate once that level is reached. Going out for the day - good luck! Catatan
head and shoulders target reached 
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