7/21-7/24: Weekend Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan
Recap
Over the past 1.5 weeks, we've seen a significant long trade from 4420 on June 10th to 4585 this week, thanks to the market’s 8 straight days of higher highs with nearly no pullback. However, on Thursday, we lost the first major support in 1.5 weeks, triggering the first short in the same time period for ~30 points, before bouncing. We're now in what I call post-trend conditions, and it's time for complex, corrective action.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down a bit
🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Down
World Headlines
G20 Energy Transitions Working Group Meeting in Goa India ends without agreement on phasing out fossil fuels.
Key Structures
Some core big picture structures and levels I am watching now include 4590-93, 4533-37, 4493-97, and the large rising uptrend channel in white. These structures drive the broad trend and provide context and orientation to the daily price action.
Support Levels
Supports are: 4564, 4552 (major), 4545, 4533-37 (major), 4523, 4516, 4497-93 (major), 4487, 4467-70 (major), 4454 (major), 4441, 4431 (major), 4420, 4408 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistances are: 4572 (major), 4482, 4490-93 (major), 4603 (major), 4619, 4627 (major), 4640, 4650-55 (major), 4664, 4672(major), 4680, 4691, 4700-05 (major).
Trading Plan
For today, I’ll be focusing on pure reaction at the levels. If I had to provide a coin toss guess, I’d like to see something like bounce from 4564 back to 4580-90, perhaps dip then 4533-37, but we could easily sell to 4533-37 there directly. I’ll trade whatever path it takes.
Wrap Up
We're now in complex, corrective action after a 190 point rally. Days like Thursday and Friday will be the norm, and they will punish those who are trying to “predict”. Take it level to level, one move at a time. After a big trend move, I am always on the lookout for the early stages of classical chart pattern formation on the 4hr chart. When do choppy conditions end and trend conditions resume? When a pattern forms and breaks out.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Over the past 1.5 weeks, we've seen a significant long trade from 4420 on June 10th to 4585 this week, thanks to the market’s 8 straight days of higher highs with nearly no pullback. However, on Thursday, we lost the first major support in 1.5 weeks, triggering the first short in the same time period for ~30 points, before bouncing. We're now in what I call post-trend conditions, and it's time for complex, corrective action.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down a bit
🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Down
World Headlines
G20 Energy Transitions Working Group Meeting in Goa India ends without agreement on phasing out fossil fuels.
Key Structures
Some core big picture structures and levels I am watching now include 4590-93, 4533-37, 4493-97, and the large rising uptrend channel in white. These structures drive the broad trend and provide context and orientation to the daily price action.
Support Levels
Supports are: 4564, 4552 (major), 4545, 4533-37 (major), 4523, 4516, 4497-93 (major), 4487, 4467-70 (major), 4454 (major), 4441, 4431 (major), 4420, 4408 (major).
Resistance Levels
Resistances are: 4572 (major), 4482, 4490-93 (major), 4603 (major), 4619, 4627 (major), 4640, 4650-55 (major), 4664, 4672(major), 4680, 4691, 4700-05 (major).
Trading Plan
For today, I’ll be focusing on pure reaction at the levels. If I had to provide a coin toss guess, I’d like to see something like bounce from 4564 back to 4580-90, perhaps dip then 4533-37, but we could easily sell to 4533-37 there directly. I’ll trade whatever path it takes.
Wrap Up
We're now in complex, corrective action after a 190 point rally. Days like Thursday and Friday will be the norm, and they will punish those who are trying to “predict”. Take it level to level, one move at a time. After a big trend move, I am always on the lookout for the early stages of classical chart pattern formation on the 4hr chart. When do choppy conditions end and trend conditions resume? When a pattern forms and breaks out.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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