SPX - Surfing Big Waves
Diupdate
The major indexes all trade together, but have different types of patterns. NASDAQ has been crazy bullish, and will be crazy dumpish, because retail likes to lose money buying call options on tech stocks because some 20-year-old wearing a baseball hat on TikTok told them to, and because tech stocks are cool.
More seasoned professionals like to lose money buying the kind of stocks found on the S&P because they're practical.
Either way, we head into a week where 4,200 is a major target, but CPI comes out on Wednesday. This magic number, which is inherently skewed and underreported to begin with, is alleged to tune the Fed's hawkish-or-dovish paradigm, because the central bank claims a target inflation rate of 2%.
We posted 9% back to back in the last two months.
I anticipate everything will dump, and hard, in the next two days, and make themselves quite a fine buying opportunity, although it'll probably be so scary you won't want to do it until you see "confirmation" of a retracement. Also, if you do it too early, you'll just be holding bags. Trading is hard, man.
What I want to say is this: after the shakeout comes, you're going to see a 4,300 SPX. When you see a 4,250 SPX, get out of the market and take your profits.
The move that is coming afterwards, heading into September and October, will make everyone's head spin. To buffer the impact, you want to have yourself a nice cushion of profits before it starts, lest you end up buying the rip and selling the dump and having to take money out of your retirement fund to buy back higher in November.
Be careful, and remember, getting rich is not important in life. Take a long term approach, and focus on your principles and values.
More seasoned professionals like to lose money buying the kind of stocks found on the S&P because they're practical.
Either way, we head into a week where 4,200 is a major target, but CPI comes out on Wednesday. This magic number, which is inherently skewed and underreported to begin with, is alleged to tune the Fed's hawkish-or-dovish paradigm, because the central bank claims a target inflation rate of 2%.
We posted 9% back to back in the last two months.
I anticipate everything will dump, and hard, in the next two days, and make themselves quite a fine buying opportunity, although it'll probably be so scary you won't want to do it until you see "confirmation" of a retracement. Also, if you do it too early, you'll just be holding bags. Trading is hard, man.
What I want to say is this: after the shakeout comes, you're going to see a 4,300 SPX. When you see a 4,250 SPX, get out of the market and take your profits.
The move that is coming afterwards, heading into September and October, will make everyone's head spin. To buffer the impact, you want to have yourself a nice cushion of profits before it starts, lest you end up buying the rip and selling the dump and having to take money out of your retirement fund to buy back higher in November.
Be careful, and remember, getting rich is not important in life. Take a long term approach, and focus on your principles and values.
Catatan
You might see numbers as ugly as like, 3,8xx, to be blunt.Scary, yeah?
Catatan
Price action today, I found strange. Generally, I would like to believe that the low of the week is made tomorrow after CPI prints, but it seems like the lows are about to come stronger and faster than before, which probably means lower and for longer.SPX has really been rather strong during this week's dumps, in contrast to how weak it was during the previous upswing that saw Nasdaq go so high.
Either way, I think the bull impulse isn't over despite all the incoming chatter about recession. But getting to the next wave up will be impolite, it seems.
Catatan
And by low of the week, it was likely the high of the week.Although SPX Futures still remain strongish as of time of writing, other assets such as Silver and Ethereum have shown topping patterns.
Careful buying the dip. It may come strong, with ferocity, and last into late next week.
PPI released tomorrow morning.
Catatan
SPX hitting 4320~ was the last target I had, not displayed on this chart. Combined with the big dump at end of day, followed by futures only trading a 50% retracement, it seems this bull impulse is down. Now to seek out sellers...
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