ES-mini Futures - (SPX) Analyses for Sep 25

Market drivers for Thu, Sep 25 (ET)
• 8:30 — GDP 2Q (Third estimate) + Corporate Profits (annual update). Official BEA release.
• 8:30 — Durable Goods (Advance, Aug). Census M3 advance report (release time 8:30 a.m. ET).
• 8:30 — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly). DoL weekly claims (standard Thu 8:30 a.m. ET cadence).
• 10:00 — Existing-Home Sales (Aug). National Association of Realtors, scheduled for Thu 10:00 a.m. ET.
• Fed speakers — Vice Chair Bowman: 9:00 a.m. (Economic Outlook) and 1:00 p.m. (Approach to Monetary Policy).
• Treasury — Multiple bill auctions scheduled for Sep 25 (4-, 6-, 13-, 26-, 52-week). Watch rate/curve reaction around midday.
• (Context) Atlanta Fed GDPNow next update Fri, Sep 26 (used by markets for GDP tracking).

Risk windows to respect: 8:30 (data cluster) and 10:00 (housing). Avoid fresh entries ~5m before/after these prints; expect liquidity gaps.

Overall bias & PA projection (overnight → tomorrow)
Structure: Uptrend on higher timeframes, but near a weekly/4H supply cap ~6,76x–6,78x with a fresh H1 pullback printed.
Bias into NY: Balanced-to-slightly-bullish if 6,67x holds. Below that, rotation toward the extension cluster 6,66x–6,64x likely before buyers try again.
Overnight projection: Asia/London likely to range 6,68x–6,70x. A London stop-run under 6,678 that quickly reclaims sets the stage for NY bounce. Acceptance below 6,672 opens 6,659 → 6,640 → 6,619.

NY session — A++ setups (Level-KZ Protocol 15/5/1)

Management rules (as usual): TP1 = next opposing MAJOR level; close 70% at TP1, leave 30% runner → TP2/TP3; hard SL = 15m trigger wick ±0.25–0.50pt; time-stop 45–60m; max 2 attempts per level.

ES SHORT (A++) — Rejection Fade at 6,735–6,750

Trigger: 15m rejection close back inside the zone → 5m re-close down with LH → 1m pullback fail to enter.
Entry: 6,740 ±2 (within zone after the 1m pullback).
SL: Above the 15m signal wick / hard cap 6,768.
• TP1: 6,700 pivot.
• TP2: 6,678–6,672 shelf.
• TP3: 6,659–6,640 ext cluster.
Invalidation / maintenance: Two whipsaws or a 15m body-through ≥1.0pt above 6,768 → demote/stand down; acceptance >6,768 flips bias to longs toward 6,78x.

ES LONG (A++) — Acceptance-Continuation from 6,658–6,642
Context: High-prob “flush & reclaim” at the extension cluster before/after 8:30 data.
Trigger: 15m full-body close back above 6,652, 5m HL + re-close up, 1m HL entry.
Entry: 6,650 ±3 after reclaim.
SL: Below the 15m signal wick / hard cap 6,637.
• TP1: 6,700 pivot.
• TP2: 6,724–6,735 supply.
• TP3: 6,760–6,770 (weekly cap).
Notes: If the 8:30 print gaps price through TP1 immediately, manage fills but still honor runner plan; no trailing before TP2 per protocol.

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London session game plan (02:00–05:00 ET)
Base case: Range 6,678–6,700 with liquidity sweeps. Reclaim of 6,700 during London often fades back into the range; prefer patience for NY AM.
Alternative: London sell program to 6,66x–6,64x → if quick reclaim above 6,652, that’s the Tier-2 bounce that feeds the NY long setup.
Bear path: Acceptance <6,640 in London → prepare for a trend-day lower toward 6,619 unless NY reverses on data.