USA Midterms Elections - What Should We Expect?

8 Nov 2022

Hello traders,

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

I) Historical returns for the SPX following mid term elections

On average the SPX has had a 15% return on a 12m basis.

This bear market is rapidly approaching the average lifespan for such a market.

Remember, the average bear market lasts 11+ months and the median is 7+ months.

II) Average Bear Market Duration

This bear market is nearing the 11-month mark, and so it is nearing the average lifespan for a bear market.

The US Treasury pumped $165 billion into the economy since the start of Oct, just as we head into midterms.

III) Midterms elections

Fully canceling out the Fed’s $90 billion per month “QT”.
By a factor of nearly 2x.

Right on queue, as soon as elections are done, they plan to reverse course.

Removing $175 billion from the economy from mid Nov through year end.

Yes that's "manipulation" happening at every midterms election.