Penjualan

Where is that next correction?

Diupdate

I am a stubborn man and I remain extremely bearish on the market.. now more than ever. eye on that volume. I think we're in a rolling topping pattern.. it could stay in this range longer than I expect but I do not think we're going to have another 2017 run straight up.. Economic data I predict will soon display a slowing. There's a lot of room for concern over the next 12 months.. not to mention an election.

Catatan

Catatan

I'm eyeballing this area now as a potential pivot down. I'd be thrilled to see a 8-10% correction from here

Catatan

at the close of last weeks weekly candle the volume was exactly on that volume trend. However, it doesn't reflect correctly now because we've started a new weekly candle and that volume appears to have fallen below- it will not be this low at the close of the next weekly candle print- it will probably be very similar to the previous week's candle.

Catatan

volume was brought right back onto trend with today's action. It will be interesting to see if we trade sideways for a week or two in this range

Catatan

I had an old SPY/ES chart on renko that I wish I'd payed more attention to. I had an outrageous target of SPX 3300.. I didn't think I'd see the day.. I'm not sure if market goes straight down or makes another go up around 3300. I think a good target for a correction would be around the 297x-300x range.. I think it would find some support there for a bounce but I cannot be bullish on market up here.
I ultimately would love to see a 30+% correction this year.. I may turn bullish down there:

Catatan

..a little messy but take a close look at the vertical yellow lines. I drew those to emphasize the importance of those two sine wave/price cycles aligning with one another. These were significant events where we had a 10% drop in early 2018, a 20% drop in end of 2018.. and now what lies ahead? I'm not suggesting this will be a 30% drop.. It might be a 5-10% drop.. or just a minor bump on this uptrend but it is ahead.. Let's enjoy the ride either way:

Catatan

ism manufacturing pmi came in better than expected but this also happened in june 2008 before the ugly drop. Many (for some reason) believe we're staging a recovery but I'm leaning bearish towards something ugly. We will know in the next couple of months...

Catatan

cleaned up version of what I think could be happening

Catatan

not much has changed-I think we're on the verge of something big. I keep expecting to wake up one morning with a 20% drop in the market.. It's certainly possible but I also would not be surprised to see spx/es at 3500+ Tops are extremely difficult because of the large size and rolling nature. Market bottoms are very different with very sharp moves and retracements.. HOLD FAST because we've all had fair warning

Catatan

significant and historic opportunities upon us. Did we top? I'm holding longer term put options on market with a heavy position in vix call options. Today paid back a great deal but is this a dip or the start of something BIG? A 20% overnight drop in the market wouldn't surprise me any more than a continuation of this rally to 3500-3600. Below is an interesting price/fractal I've been following for a little while with a similar path.

Catatan

wow.. could it be happening?

Catatan

I wish I'd paid paid more attention to this ascending triangle and the measured move!

Catatan

I've remained net short market through the drop with puts on spy and calls in vxx. We *might* (might, might, might, might) be in a bounce zone.. but I'm not dependent on that. I've added some calls in spy to to cushion any upside rally and would consider adding to short position if spy managed to rally to new highs again.. again, I'm not dependent on that.. we could just keep sliding down the slope.

Catatan

4hr chart on es. I've been short from the very top- eased out of some positions slowly. I have no idea where the bottom is..

Catatan

WHAT A WEEK! I stayed short market and long vxx calls.. I had to bite my fingers off not to hit the sell button. I think a low is forming.. I don't know if that's NOW or another 10% drop. But I expect a rally of some kind into april-may.

Catatan

You had plenty of warning

Catatan

we lost 50% of the 2019-20 gains in a week

Catatan

I'm not convinced we've dropped far enough. I'd like to see ES land on that lower moving average around 261x-263x. I would consider some meatier call options if we dropped in that range for a rally into spring. If we do not hit that level I'll wait until april-May to short the index again and go long vxx (vix etf) options. a 15% drop in the market last week was not just a rogue panic/flush. I believe this is the tip of the iceberg in a complete trend change for a while:

Catatan

We could see a strong reversal for a bit

Catatan

I think we could be near a short-term bottom. Perhaps a rally into spring (april-may) but then something worse going into June-August):

Catatan

259-261 was my low target.. we need to see this bounce and have some relief for a while or we're looking at a hard crash and not a civilized and orderly correction. There is a difference

gghsusa

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