10/20/2022 Trends Showing Healthier Formation into a Rally
First, like I say in the video, I again want to show my appreciation for the overwhelming support yesterday after I made Editor's Pick. It was both humbling and an honor.
So, if you just want to know how the market is trending and don't care for the video, here are the trends;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3715 Downtrend (10/20/2022) Higher Low
1Hr - 3708 Downtrend (10/19/2022) Higher Low
2Hr - 3700 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High
3Hr - 3682 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High
4Hr - 3680 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High
6Hr - 3759 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High
12Hr - 3606 Downtrend (10/10/2022) Lower Low
Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
Realize the 30m change while I was doing the video, so I hadn't moved the line over yet, but it basically is paralleling the current 1hr line staying about 5 points lower.
Overall, I still want to see that 2hr Downtrend signal. Especially after we touched it 3 times yesterday. I do see we are currently have a small mini rally, I just can't quite get into that long sentiment until we have a small movement down.
I do believe that ultimately overall on the day we could see a positive for the day, I just think we have a quick dip before we get that. It may be TESLA that leads us lower in the opening of the US Markets, as while they beat Earnings estimates, it was only due to increased price hikes and they appear to be suffering from shipping and manufacturing issues. Elon did make statements about the company doing a buyback on the stock, however, knowing Elon, that was likely just him attempting to inflate the stock price of TESLA before he has to do his major sell off to gain the money he needs for the Twitter deal.
So yeah, I wanna see us briefly run lower, snag the 2hr downtrend (I'd prefer we grab a 4hr downtrend), pause and see how the market reacts to those movements, and then look for long positions to get into a rally that could last the remainder of October.
On other areas -
Earnings; These are your big ones, again with emphasis on AT&T I think driving their sector sentiment.
Danaher - BTO
Phillip Morris - BTO
AT&T - BTO (Big One)
Union Pacific - BTO
Economic Data;
Jobless Claims and Philly Manufacturing Data will be the ones I keep an eye on.
Geopolitical Issue;
I forgot to mention in the video, but allegedly Putin is having a meeting about launching a Tactical Nuke in the Black Sea region. Will he? I doubt it. However, look for his saber rattling to cause some caution in the market.
Overall my sentiment is;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Bullish
I'm fairly cautious at the moment on getting into anything, I'll update as the day goes on if I see good signals for an entry.
As always, remember your risk management plan.
Long Term - Bearish Neutral
So, if you just want to know how the market is trending and don't care for the video, here are the trends;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots
30m - 3715 Downtrend (10/20/2022) Higher Low
1Hr - 3708 Downtrend (10/19/2022) Higher Low
2Hr - 3700 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High
3Hr - 3682 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High
4Hr - 3680 Uptrend (10/13/2022) Lower High
6Hr - 3759 Uptrend (10/17/2022) Higher High
12Hr - 3606 Downtrend (10/10/2022) Lower Low
Daily - 4041 Downtrend (8/26/2022) Lower Low
Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low
Realize the 30m change while I was doing the video, so I hadn't moved the line over yet, but it basically is paralleling the current 1hr line staying about 5 points lower.
Overall, I still want to see that 2hr Downtrend signal. Especially after we touched it 3 times yesterday. I do see we are currently have a small mini rally, I just can't quite get into that long sentiment until we have a small movement down.
I do believe that ultimately overall on the day we could see a positive for the day, I just think we have a quick dip before we get that. It may be TESLA that leads us lower in the opening of the US Markets, as while they beat Earnings estimates, it was only due to increased price hikes and they appear to be suffering from shipping and manufacturing issues. Elon did make statements about the company doing a buyback on the stock, however, knowing Elon, that was likely just him attempting to inflate the stock price of TESLA before he has to do his major sell off to gain the money he needs for the Twitter deal.
So yeah, I wanna see us briefly run lower, snag the 2hr downtrend (I'd prefer we grab a 4hr downtrend), pause and see how the market reacts to those movements, and then look for long positions to get into a rally that could last the remainder of October.
On other areas -
Earnings; These are your big ones, again with emphasis on AT&T I think driving their sector sentiment.
Danaher - BTO
Phillip Morris - BTO
AT&T - BTO (Big One)
Union Pacific - BTO
Economic Data;
Jobless Claims and Philly Manufacturing Data will be the ones I keep an eye on.
Geopolitical Issue;
I forgot to mention in the video, but allegedly Putin is having a meeting about launching a Tactical Nuke in the Black Sea region. Will he? I doubt it. However, look for his saber rattling to cause some caution in the market.
Overall my sentiment is;
Shorter Term - Bearish
Short Term - Neutral
Medium Term - Bullish
I'm fairly cautious at the moment on getting into anything, I'll update as the day goes on if I see good signals for an entry.
As always, remember your risk management plan.
Long Term - Bearish Neutral
Catatan
Earnings so far;Danaher - Beat Revenues and Earnings estimates
Phillip Morris - Missed Revenue but beat Earnings
Union Pacific - Beat Revenue and Earnings
AT&T - Looks like they beat Earnings estimates, but their revenue seems to be a bag of mixed all over.
Not sure how many here pulled the "Walmart Effect" of tossing in really low expectations on the back of other bad news, then beating those estimates later to look healthy. Based on the revenue aspect, could be that AT&T and Phillip Morris both pulled that trick, but I don't watch them like I do other companies often enough to have seen it myself.
Catatan
Some caution on those looking to be long at the open, Tesla shares are REALLY down in premarket trading already. If this isn't looked at like a "buy the dip" oppurtunity, I'd expect that to hit sub 200 levels (for the first time all year) and cause some panic selling. Tesla is a heavyweight in the S&P, and could pull the S&P and Nasdaq down with it, bringing in poor sentiment across the IT sector overall.Catatan
Initial Jobless Claims surprise to the downside. The labor market continues to be healthier than expected. Bad for the Federal Reserve. Was to be 230k (an increase from 224k last week) and it came in at 214k.Surprise downside to the Fed Manufacturing Data also. Was to be -5, up from -9.9 the month prior, but came in at -8.7. Still an increase, but not the increase that was being looked to come in.
I'd think these would be driving factors to lower the market for the day, especially in the growth stocks (mostly IT stuff) but... it could be overshadowed by Earnings reports since we are in Earning season.
Catatan
Woooow... Truss just resigned from the UK Prime Minister. That will rock the UK markets hardcore.Catatan
Healthy open volume but directionless whipsaw for the most part. A hint of bearish mentality, but certainly in the midst of a battleground.Catatan
Went short at 3732... I still believe we go down to snag some lowers before we can really go higher.Catatan
Eh, bailed when it came down here to 3731. Lunch MoneyCatatan
Short again here at 3636Catatan
Bleh, knocked out at 3735 =\ more lunch money.Catatan
Short again here at 3745Catatan
Bleh, jumped out again at 3744... might go take a break for a bit.Catatan
Took long enough...Catatan
This 2 Hour bar will finish at 13:00, be nice if it finally hit the downtrend I've been waiting a day and a half for.Catatan
I can only laugh... lol... cause this downtrend is inevitable... but everyone keeps fighting the descent, haha. Just let go... be free =)I might just cash out. I'm went short at 3740 after the market wanted to toy with my emotions while I tried to catch the thrown knife. I can be satisfied with $2000 on the day... I still think though we are heading to get that 4 hour downtrend. If you look at a 4hr chart, you can see how everything is closing to head down further.
Catatan
There it is... pinging in at 3678. I would have thought it would have started to signal higher because of that push up before we came back down here, but it doesn't appear so in the end. Have to hold 3678 or lower until 15:00 EST to get the signal. Then it is all about seeing how it looks to keep heading to the 4hr.Trading ditutup: target tercapai
I cashed out my short from 3740 at 3670. $3500 is good enough for today. I still believe we push further down to around that 3650 range, but I'm satisfied with my trade at this point. I'll still check in.Catatan
It's official. We have a higher low 2hr downtrend.I will be really fascinated on our next move here.
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Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.