7/25: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan

25
Recap

In my last newsletter, I predicted a bounce from 4564 back to 4580-90, and this played out perfectly yesterday. ES has now put in 5 daily candles stacked side by side, suggesting a large move is incoming. We are now consolidating for the next big move, with the FOMC on Wednesday being a potential catalyst.

Markets Overnight

šŸŒ Asia: Mostly up, China up strongly
šŸŒ Europe: Up a bit
šŸŒŽ US Index Futures: Mixed
šŸ›¢ Crude Oil: Down a bit
šŸ’µ Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Up
šŸ”® Crypto: Down slightly

World Headlines

  • China’s Politburo vows to ā€œadjust and optimize policies in a timely mannerā€ and increase stimulus to jump start economic recovery.
  • Russia attacks Ukraine grain export infrastructure and ports.


Key Structures

The pattern forming now looks like a rough triangle, with 4560-62 support, and 4590-92 resistance. Some core big picture structures and levels I am watching now include 4590-92, 4560-62, 4539, and 4493-97.

Support Levels

Supports are: 4583, 4572 (major), 4560-62 (major), 4548, 4539 (major), 4529, 4523, 4516, 4505, 4493 (major), 4487, 4476 (major), 4460-63, 4448-50 (major), 4441, 4433 (major), 4418 (major).

Resistance Levels

Resistances are: 4593-95 (major), 4604 (major), 4616, 4629 (major), 4640, 4655, 4667 (major), 4676 (major), 4683, 4694, 4703 (major).

Trading Plan

Currently, I am still holding my 10% long runner. With today being a pre-FOMC day, I would not be surprised to see very complex, difficult bi-directional chop. The key supports today to watch are 4572 and 4560-62. If we do get the breakout, I would not be surprised if we run to 4630 before any micro-dip.

Wrap Up

In summary, we remain in complex chop and this should be the case until FOMC on Wednesday. This will be a level to level traders market. I see 4590-4560 as being pure chop. Ideally, we can sell to test 4572ish, perhaps bounce there back up the levels and continue filling out the above-mentioned range and triangle until FOMC, which would favor a bullish breakout. If 4560 fails, its short to 4539.

Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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