#003-2.4 S&P 500 SMACK DOWN (DON'T BE GREEDY & COVER @3750)

16 Mar 2021

THESE TRADE RECO "FOR THE RECORD".

I will post records from time to time. Anyway, what also makes me think gold won't hold 1627 and eventually bottom circa 1540-1550 like this:

... is that S&P 500 LOOKS TERRIBLE RIGHT NOW. SO terrible that I am opening a trade reco. This thing will likely have 2 legs and the second leg go to 3400. This is just trading the first leg. If you need me to explain why a drop in US equity would be bad for gold, maybe some other time (maybe not).

ENTRY SHORT @ 3964.25 AT 1:23 PM ET ON TUESDAY 03/16.
STOP LOSS @ 4025
TARGET @ UNDER 3600
TP/COVER @ 3725

WHY COVER EARLY? BC I DONT HAVE TIME TO DETAIL IT.

BTW, WILL ANNOUNCE GOLD SHORT FOR THE RECORD

ENTRY SHORT @ 1732 AT 1:30 PM ET ON SAME DAY.
STOP LOSS @ 1751
TARGET @ 1627
TP/COVER 1640

17 Mar 2021

Catatan

WED 3/17 10:36 AM, LOWER STOPS ON BOTH TRADES:

ES1!, SL FROM 4025 TO 3985
XAUUSD SL FROM 1751 TO 1741

Why risk more than you have to?

17 Mar 2021

Catatan

WED 3/17 10:53 AM, ES NEW LOW OF DAY 3928, LOWER STOP AGAIN.

ORIGINAL ENTRY 3964.25
LOWER SL 3985 TO 3962

Why? Something wrong?

No. I really like this short. But It is true I dont trade equity often. So lets make sure we dont lose this one.

17 Mar 2021

Catatan

WED 3/17 1:46 PM ET.

COVER ES1! SHORT @ 3934.50.
COVER GOLD SHIRT @1729.32.

17 Mar 2021

Catatan

Why? I am seeing something in volume to be suspicous about.

20 Mar 2021

Catatan

3/19, BTW NOTHING HAS CHANGED OVERALL:

20 Mar 2021

Catatan

My trade notes are more for specific record keeping to be referenced later. I saw something on 12-min bars Wednesday afternoon that looked like a temporary spike (which happended).

25 Mar 2021

Catatan

10.30 AM ET WED 03.25

FLOOR FOR THIS T4ADE HAS MOVED TO 3785 SO IF STILL SHORT MOVE TP TO 3800. IF YOU'VE READ THE NOTES IN (SCROLL DOWN TO VERY END):

IT LOOKS LIKE SPX WILL BOUNCE TO 4040 AND THEN DO MOVE TO 34XX.

25 Mar 2021

Catatan

Otherwise I consider this finished.

25 Mar 2021

Catatan

12.00 NOON ET WED 3.24.

I HAVE CONVICTION WE WILL BREAK 3700 SO LETS MOVE TP BACK DOWN TO 3715 (YES, PAST ORIGINAL TP)

25 Mar 2021

Catatan

12:34 AM

SINCE I DONT' ACTUALLY HAVE AN OPEN TRADE FOR ES/US500/SPX/SPY RIGHT NOW (SINCE COVERING ON FOMC) "FOR THE RECORD", WILL TAKE THIS ENTRY:

SHORT 3877
SL 3904
TP 3715
TARGET UNDER 3700

25 Mar 2021

Catatan

12.54 PM ET.

ITS 3883.5 NOW, MOV SL UP TO 1921.5.

WHY?

BC REGRESSIONS SHOW POSSIBLE PUSH TO 1918 AREA BEFORE SMACK DOWN REALLY HARD.

25 Mar 2021

Catatan

1.46 PM ET. MOVE SL DOWN TO 3894.

ODDS FAVOR SAVING SOME ROOM NOW.

25 Mar 2021

Catatan

4.25 PM ET

SO STOPPED OUT. RE ENTRY SHORT 3905.25
SL 3921.5
TP 3725
TARGET 3700

SO SAVED A LITTLE BIT.

26 Mar 2021

Catatan

FRIDAY 10:40 AM ET

RESHORT 3926
SL 3966
TP LATER
TARGET LATER

26 Mar 2021

Catatan

1ST 3 ES SHORTS LEADING TO THIS ONE:

1. 3964.25/3934.5, +29.75
2. 3877/3894, -17.00
3. 3905.25,3921.5 -16.25

SO RESULT WOULD BE TRADE # 4 -3.5, SHORT FROM 3926

26 Mar 2021

Catatan

FTR 3/25 11:37 AM CT

001-0 LONG 1859.60 CLOSE 1822, -2.022%
002-5 SHORT 1798.16 CLOSE 1680, +6.571%
002-7, 003-2.5 COMBINED SHORTS CLOSE, +8.4%
003-2.4, 003-2.6 GOLD COMBINED SHORTS= +.78%

FOR EASY RECORD KEEPING, THIS WILL BE
003-2.4 SHORT (ES1!) 3922.5

26 Mar 2021

Catatan

03.26 2.00 PM ET

COVER 3918

Q: SO THIS WHOLE EXERCISE WITH ES WORTH 4.5 PTS, IS THAT IT?

A: No, bc the trend has been correct for 8 days. And since I dont trade equoties regularly, wanted to wait for the BIG RR LEG. But big upside volume appearing for bulls that pretty much concludes this projection.