ES1!: Longer Term outlook
Hey everyone,
Just looking at the ES1! chart since our October low and how it compares on Z-Score.
Kind of kicking myself because this was a perfect rejection of 3 SD's and now we are pulling back and I didn't even notice.
Ah well, anyway, this is just a larger timeframe look.
A healthy pullback would be to +1 Standard Deviation which corresponds to a futures price of 4211.21 (purple arrow).
Under normal conditions (absent extreme bullish pushing), this would be a normal and healthy retracement.
A retracement to complete neutrality from our October Low till now would be at 0 standard deviations or a price of 4046 (green arrow).
If you read my post, SPY Boom or Bust, where I talk about the bell curves, we actually did flip over to a negative kurtosis after today. Not like dramatic tanking, panic sell negative kurtosis, but something I am watching closely.
As such, I will probably be entering into a tentative short position on this with SPXU. The R&R is there for this type of setup for me. But this is not advice and please don't follow me because it is what I am doing. Make sure to do your own due diligence.
Here is the chart for SPY:
Safe trades!
Just looking at the ES1! chart since our October low and how it compares on Z-Score.
Kind of kicking myself because this was a perfect rejection of 3 SD's and now we are pulling back and I didn't even notice.
Ah well, anyway, this is just a larger timeframe look.
A healthy pullback would be to +1 Standard Deviation which corresponds to a futures price of 4211.21 (purple arrow).
Under normal conditions (absent extreme bullish pushing), this would be a normal and healthy retracement.
A retracement to complete neutrality from our October Low till now would be at 0 standard deviations or a price of 4046 (green arrow).
If you read my post, SPY Boom or Bust, where I talk about the bell curves, we actually did flip over to a negative kurtosis after today. Not like dramatic tanking, panic sell negative kurtosis, but something I am watching closely.
As such, I will probably be entering into a tentative short position on this with SPXU. The R&R is there for this type of setup for me. But this is not advice and please don't follow me because it is what I am doing. Make sure to do your own due diligence.
Here is the chart for SPY:
Safe trades!
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If it actually works out, I will post an idea of what I am seeing. Otherwise, I will be wrong and we continue up and so it becomes a none-issue.
Safe trades everyone!