ES/SPY Weekend Levels (Feb6-10)

5 Feb 2023

The S&P 500 showed a 1.55% gain last week and closed above the 9/21/55 moving averages and the 200 simple moving average. Despite closing above the long-term downward trendline, it remained below the December 12th pivot high. The S&P 500 is currently 17% higher than the October 13th low and 13.67% below its all-time high. The strongest sectors last week were XLC, XLK, and XLY, while the weakest were XLE and XLU. The earnings season continues this week with reports from companies such as ENPH, RCL, UBER, PEP, LYFT, and others. This week will be light on economic data, but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak on Tuesday. The bullish momentum may stall as the price has run into resistance at the December 12th high and a pullback into the trendline or 200 moving average is possible. There is potential for hawkish talk from Fed heads this week which may dampen the frothy market.

SUMMARY
• S&P posted a 1.55% gain last week after trading in a range 202 points
• Price closed above the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma again
• Finished the week above the long term downward trendline but below the Dec 12th pivot high
• The S&P is now 17% above the Oct 13th low and 13.67% off the ATH
• SPX 50 SMA closed above the 200 SMA (Golden Cross)
• Strongest sectors last week were XLC, XLK & XLY. Weakest were XLE & XLU
• Earnings continue this week including reports from ENPH, RCL, UBER, PEP, LYFT, NET, HTZ, UA , ABBV & L
• Light week for econ data but, Fed’s Powell speaks on Tuesday.
• Bullish momentum may stall as price has run into resistance at the Dec 13th high
• A pull back into the trendline or 200 sma is possible
• Potential hawkish talk from Fed heads this week to dampen the frothy market

WEEKLY EVENTS

Monday Nothing Notable
Tuesday US International Trade & Fed’s Powell Speaks
Wednesday EIA OIL Inventory, Fed’s Kashkari & Waller speak
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims
Friday University of Mich. Sentiment

NOTABLE EARNINGS

Monday ATVI, L, LEG, PINS, SWKS, TSN, TTWO
Tuesday CARR, BP, ENPH, FTNT, HTZ, KKR, RCL, WU
Wednesday BAM, CDAY, COTY, CVS, DIS, EMR, ETN, HOOD, GT, MAT, MGM, TEVA, UA, UBER, XPO, YUM
Thursday ABBV, AZN, BE, BN, DOCS, EXPE, HLT, K, LYFT, NET, PEP, PYPL, QLYS, RL, THC, TU
Friday ENB, FTS, GPN, MGA, NWL, WPC

BULLISH NOTES

Above 9/21/55 emas
Above 200 sma
SPX completed Golden Cross
Above LT downward trendline
Potential 618 Fib RT price magnet (4293)
Possible positive reaction to Powell’s speech
Continuation of short covering
Rotation away from defensive sectors
Dropping USD & yields

BEARISH NOTES

Potential rejection at key resistance (Dec 13th high)
Potential negative reaction to Powell speech
Pull back possible after large run up
200 sma & trendline likely to be re-tested
Stoch (5,1) is overbought
Potential reversal higher in USD & yields
Potential negative reaction to earnings
Global shock event (Tension with China + Ukraine war)

5 Feb 2023

Catatan

Look at the Golden Cross on SPX.

7 Feb 2023

Catatan

ES has been trading very similar to NQ just off different levels. The initial Powell pop has been sold into and price came back to re-test the 9 ema. Still watching the trendline support. A re-test of the line is likely.

9 Feb 2023

Catatan

So like the NQ the ES traded down after then initial Powel Pop and then back up to close at the high on Tuesday. Wednesday price retraced more than 50% but is now bouncing overnight to start Thursday. So thats 5 swings back and forth in a battle royal between the Dec 13th high and the 9 ema below. Given the strength of these moves I would expect a large follow through move when one side breaks. Impossible to predict which side will win at this point.

10 Feb 2023

Catatan

The 9 ema could not hold at the bottom of the consolidation and the ES flushed down to the 21 ema overnight. Price is now re-testing the breakout point at the trendline. Support should come in this area. If it doesn't hold look to the 618 (orange line) and 200 as potential lower targets/support.