Trend Broken in S&P (ES)

16 Mar 2022

A very strong close in S&P futures today after a drive down on the FOMC release that closed the gap from the previous day. The close significantly above the downward trendline on the daily chart breaks the downtrend.

The close also left a late spike. A late spike is range extension into the close with no time left for the market to show acceptance or rejection of this higher price. Watch the open closely tomorrow.

If we open in or above the range of the late spike (marked on the 30 min chart above), then an open drive and strong trend day should be expected. This would make the opening range trade an ideal trade. Longs should be placed upon price breaking above the opening 1 minute range. Stops should be placed just below the lower bound of the 1 min opening range.

If instead we open within yesterdays trading range, patience should be exercised and no trade should be taken off the open. Wait for market structure to develop.

17 Mar 2022

Order dibatalkan

The market is opening below the late spike, and within yesterday's trading range and value area. Caution should be exercised on the open. We are still significantly above the downward trendline on the daily chart, and this may now provide support to lean on for a trade. It's likely with an open in yesterday's range that we will see a repair day today, where the market trades through some of yesterday's volume profile, filling in the low volume areas.

I use a seperate platform to look at volume profile and market profile because Tradingview is not ideal for this.

Look for the market to hold above the downward trendline today. That will confirm a market state change. Otherwise this should be considered a test and fail as happened on FEB 9-10, and the downtrend is still intact.