Enphase - Wave Analysis

3 Mar

Hi All,

I’ve been looking at this chart for weeks and I can’t help but post a contrarian idea that ENPH may actually be going down, at least from a wave perspective. Now I could be completely wrong and the MACDs point mildly upward (and maybe we are in a wave 3 up which could launch Enph if it ever passed $140 thus invalidating this idea) but from a different wave perspective I can’t help but shake we are going down.

Let’s assume I’m right for a moment which I would take with a grain of salt, but it is conceivable we just completed or near completed a wave 2 at the 0.382 around $130.50 and then we got a small push downward on Friday, I’m considering if we are starting a wave 3 downwards soon if not already. And I’ve watched the corrective motion from late feb from 119ish to now 130ish and it had likely completed a 5 wave motion as seen in many mini C waves of a wave 2.

I’ve also highlighted 3 gaps in the chart which I don’t like and they should be filled in an optimal sense at some point in time. The waves listed would fill at least 2 or 3 of the gaps. It’s hard for me to make a post like this, when sentiment is opposite, but either way we’ll know in a few days likely. GLTA

4 Mar

Catatan

Really beautiful action today showing how wave analysis can be your friend. I’m cautiously optimistic with the current count for now as a wave 3 down until shown otherwise. Notice the daily MACD went back under the signal and the bearish engulfing candle on the daily. I’m expecting volatility with Powell speech.

Please do your own due diligence! GLTA!

6 Mar

Catatan

FYI, I don’t like the short price action so far so I’m exiting my put position for now.

17 Mar

Catatan

I just wanted to update that I feel foolish because I was a week off, which cost me $, I did buy some puts last week for some profit, the Fibonacci for wave 2 went higher than I expected but the general principle outlined before seems ok so far. Here’s an update assuming this structure is right which I’m always cautious:

Busy chart, but I’m thinking our wave 2 ended around the 0.786 at around $134, and proceeded down a wave 3 down which was strong as expected, they typically end around the 1.618 ($100) or 2.618 ($78) or anything in between or longer, I put a rectangle for where maybe it could end. Of course if the structure is right then you would have a bounce of wave 4 before completing the last wave 5. In this scenario, we have not actually hit the bottom for ENPH as we still have a gap to be filled around $80, and potentially the SP could hit the 60s.

Now an alternative theory is that we are actually in a wave C downward which would mean we could end somewhere on the 0.618 or 0.786 around $84-$94 and then bounce for a wave 3 upwards. I don’t think this is my primary idea for a couple reasons. (1) there the gap at $80 that should be filled, (2) I want to see weekly bullish divergence which actually hasn’t been done yet and of course a daily bullish divergence too.

All this being said, busy week with Powell talking this week, so anything goes including a bounce next week although at least this wave theory doesn’t see it sustained. I would be cautious with any ideas including mine, and remind yourself to do your own due diligence. GLTA

22 Mar

Catatan

Here’s my guess of what’s going on, but my wave 3 is kind of short which I don’t like, but we bounced off around the 0.382 which I believe ended the wave 4 in this scenario. We could head down from here in a wave 5.

On the micro scale which I didn’t show here I believe yesterday we completed a micro wave 1 and 2 and now starting down a micro wave 3 of wave 5. The hourly MACD is about to turn bearish again. Again I don’t like how my wave 3 is short in this scenario so I’m cautious and watching closely. If you liked this post give it a thumbs up!

P.S. Do your own diligence as I can be wrong! Also I may be traveling internationally so I can only update occasionally

28 Mar

Catatan

Idea invalidated, impressive strength off of a short squeeze.