Fundamentals. The second day of active sales amid wildfires in California.
Technical analysis. Daily chart: Level 64.56 is ahead, which is formed by a trend break in April 2024. Premarket: Low activity. Trading session: After an attempt to grow from the opening, the price bounced off the level 70.50 and went below the opening price, where it found support and began to tighten to level 68.00. We are considering a short trade to continue the downward movement. The stop will be too large If we enter aggressively into the breakdown, so we wait for a retest after the breakdown to open a position.
Trading scenario: #breakdown_retest (#tightening_retest) of level 68.00
Entry: 67.55 below the low of the retest.
Stop: 68.03 we hide it behind the level with a small reserve.
Managing the Trade: After a confident downward movement from the moment the position was opened we observe a pullback at 10:45 a.m. occurred in the form of two long candles. At the same time, we pay attention to the fact that the volumes for purchase are rapidly decreasing during the pullback. We watch the reaction to the level 66.50, if the sellers hold it, then we continue to hold the position, otherwise we close part of the position.
Exit: Close part of the position before the daily level of 64.56. Close the remaining part of the position at a price of 64.57 when the structure of the downtrend is broken.
Risk Rewards: 1/6
P.S. In order to understand the idea of the Stock Of The Day analysis, please read the following information.
Catatan
A few comments on the trade.
1. Managing the Trade: After a confident downward movement from the moment the position was opened, we observe a pullback at 10:45 a.m. occurred in the form of two long candles. At the same time, we pay attention to the fact that the volumes for purchase are rapidly decreasing during the pullback. This is one of the signs that this is a pullback, and not a change in trend. We watch the reaction to the level 66.50, if the sellers hold it, then we continue to hold the position, otherwise we close part of the position.
2. A major player. Pay attention to how smoothly the price moves and how technically the levels are worked out. This is a sure sign that there is a major player who has been getting rid of shares for the second day already. We can get additional confirmation of this by reading the tape and monitoring the time and sales data, which displays real-time trade executions. By reading the tape we see how the algorithm of a large player works: several orders of 100 shares each appear with a step of 1 cent with a frequency of approximately once a minute.
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