Captain Powell "energize"! First officer Tailor "not aboard,yet"
Diupdate
This is the newest publishing for the DXY where I've promised before. A neutral, BTW. ( The first publishing already has too many updates to read it)
Catatan
Pros should've understood that a very low volatile forex market condition has begun in the Euro, Dollar and Yuan too, they're pegging in 10 months maybe longer ... There's nothing big before the FRB's last hike in 2017 (maybe "the last" in 2 years, Dollar hiking cycle has never lasted more than 2 years since 1983). But "The capital must flow." In such low condition, big capitals may run into another market for hunting the profits. Central banks are gonna work for the inflations in 12 months.Catatan
Still exploring a rang where is following the core inflation but not the food/drink.Catatan
Traders should understand that the market is moving with corrections of time and distributions of price. It's very interesting to see scalpers are pilling to short the DXY after the 9 months fall ( from Jan. to Sept.) where professional traders are taking profits area. The speculator sentiment on DXY now is net short at 7 short holdings Vs. 0 long holding.
Catatan
Traders should understand that the market is moving with corrections of time and distributions of price. It's very interesting to see scalpers are pilling to short the DXY after the 9 months fall ( from Jan. to Sept.) where professional traders are taking profits area. The speculator sentiment on DXY now is net short at 7 short holdings Vs. 0 long holding.
Catatan
Source: It will be correcting higher but the EU will be ranging. We may have an whole year double squeezing from gold and stock markets like 2015. finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-drops-abc-report-162508089.html
The chart will be updated later, stay tuned...
Catatan
It seems like every market is down, a pre-hike squeezing into DXY, we may have 1 month DXY rising with the core one, together... We've warned traders the GER30 and the stocks 2 months before the fall. TAX reform s are good for inflations but bad for SPX500 shortly. The stocks are just commencing the correction, we'll see when they bottom and inform TV traders ASAP.
Catatan
commodities almost done, now the virtual assets, yes stock is a typical virtual. GER30 target 10800, SPX500 lower too, risk off, watch out Japanese Yen.Catatan
This hike is a same hike like the first one by 0.7%, wait it was announced by 0.25% in 2015? Oh man, you really believe Yellen's tricks? This's clear, same hike 0.7% like 2015 and this time they announce it by 0.7%. It will scare traders out of the market from stocks and virtual assets, for example coins. Meanwhile investors are collecting real coins, from the bottom......
Catatan
Meet new supply in US 10Y bonds market: US treasury bonds auction sold 20 billion 10 years T-notes by yield 2.384% yesterday. Meet fresh supply in US 30Y bonds market: US treasury bonds auction sold 12 billion 30 years T-notes by yield 2.808% just an hour ago.
See? The purchasing is just beginning, as predicted before. The FRB is doing new QE without telling the market. The USA market condition will be much more better than the Europe market with QE. This's making EU zone into an awkward situation.
Check up the title chart "The QT should've ended here."
Catatan
An huge hike 0.7% which was announced by 0.25% like 2015 did. With this hike beginning and Fed's dot plot showing that the USA is opening the longest hiking cycle since 1982. We're extending the over heat cycle just like it has been predicted, the same Renminbi's devaluation 40 months cycle before. (the Renminbi's inflation shall rise too, by helping from the USA with USDCNY pegging in a range, consider the commodity bigger volatile. if the inflation is too low Renminbi can do a little weak to hold it and this will make USDCNY higher untill the inflation is so high that will cause an hike in it)
Now let's count the cycle:
2015/12+20+20 = 2015+52 = 2015+48+4 = 2019/4, yes we shall end the cycle on April 2019, where the Brexit is decided.
We can also end this hiking cycle earlier by Renminbi's deposit hike but I strongly doubt it with the leader of Yuan Shih-kai in 1916.
If we have the inflation going slowly in 4 years, it's saying that Trump will serve the second 4 years where is making the human culture movements last 10 years since 2014. Yes, I'm predicting his future now. (Normally an human culture movement should last 10 years around the world but China leaders is still against it. They're "meiwenhua". )
In the end of this year 2017, we're looking back our trades and analysis. We'll see the market in 2018.
Catatan
The FRB is doing hikes and doing small QE at the same time, the hike is helping the core inflation but not the food/oil and the QE is helping the US indexes with purchasing US Government 10Y bonds price higher yields lower.Catatan
We will publish new monthly chart on DXY during Christmas! Stay tuned...
Catatan
Source: ( Traders should pay more attention to the Tax Reform bill could be signed during this weekend.)foxbusiness.com
Be careful here, DXY may grow up rapidly.
Catatan
Merry Christmas and happy new year! We're updating some charts as we've promised before!
Catatan
Today I've seen extreme small speculators sentiments where most scalpers are going to short and news about collapsing of US dollar, meanwhile the CFTC report is showing that commercial speculators is turning from net short holding 5685 to net long holding 3868. This is saying that we're looking for US dollar long ( which has been predicted on above chart). As long as the last low 91.01 is working, setup will be at the harmonic patterns convergence ( the Batman ALT and the Gartley pattern around 91.51) where has been mentioned on above chart.
The EURUSD could go to 1.2000- 1.2034 for a good setup too.
Catatan
To be clear, we don't trade news. A RRR ( reduce deposit reserve ratio) cut happens today from PBOC. A 2 Trillion Renminbi liquidity will be released into the market in one month. It will affect China stock market next week end and shall do good for all China markets before Spring Festival on Feb. 2018. US dollar will be bought and Japanese Yen will be weak. Bad for core inflations. ( China is doing QE?)
DXY could drop a little lower before next week end.
Catatan
Our short position on USDJPY has taken profits already. We're going to long US dollar next week or we're going to short EURUSD. We don't like to long XAUUSD now. The US dollar rising could be an impulse where cloud shock the forex market at the first week.
Happy New Year 2018!
Catatan
After checking many US dollar pairs, today we're having more confidence in it. USDPLN, USDSEK, USDCNY are showing the same pattern. USDJPY is strong due to Yen's weakness. USDCAD, AUDUSD, USDCHF are showing the same pattern. EURUSD is strong and NZDUSD will rise a little. We're on the new year holiday, so the market will be awaken slowly till this week end.
Catatan
Very near to our target around 91.51 now, still has a little space to go. Meanwhile We have an extreme condition on EURUSD from the SSI, where's 86% short holding Vs. 13% long holding. This maybe a condition ( nearly 7 times multiple on it) where the market is gonna turn soon. The USDJPY is lagging with XAUUSD for some days, we could still see an USDJPY equal leg to lower level until US dollar is bought at this week end. This capital flow is causing by Renminbi's RRR cut last week end, we usually have 1 week lagging due to the PBOC money policy works slowly.Catatan
To be clear, we are NOT trading signals! The chart way is NOT our trading way!
Scalpers should stick with your own way!
We suggest you to trade small TF harmonic patterns with the trend. We also suggest you to trade hourly EMA after the mid term trend is identified on daily or weekly chart, after contact your analyst.
Catatan
DXY has reached 91.47 on DX1! ( ICEUSA data end of day) Also today we've seen 91.458 on daily forex, we've seen 91.454 on forex street. All met our 91.51 target. For some reasons, the DXY data is hidden, that is suspicious enough.
Catatan
After the FOMC minutes, the DXY just done it like has been predicted before, the news is cooperating with analysis. See? We don’t need to trade news. The way to trade news is called ‘hedging”, which is like a race. We can trade it but chose moral law. We’re not animals and not machines, we do have choices and have attitudes and bottom lines, as human natural... culturallyCatatan
DXY is holding but EURUSD higher, which is the right way to go? Our first try on EU and XAUUSD have been stopped out by BE. We’re going to try it again from higher.Catatan
We are in the spike.Catatan
Looks like US dollar has done its target at 91.01 with 0.618 time window from Trump's war of words to NK. We're waiting for Euro topping with 1.0 time window from Sep. 2017. We have more confidence in this impulse now.
Patience is a key to your trading success. We'd like to try it again and again, with BE or small loss.
Catatan
The White House has announced President Trump second run in 2020, just like we've predicted before. With the news, there're some talks about the inflation target will be corrected to lower than 2%. Our point of view is clear. As long as the 2% inflation target is not achieved, Trump will serve more years. So he would like to enjoy the show from the slowly moving of the inflation 2% target. We have 2 predictions here: The 2% inflation target won't be corrected. He will serve 8 years. We're saying his run into 2020, on 9th. Jan. 2018. China isn't ready for this. Our point of view is that China leader is a coward and stupid and "meiwenhua".
Catatan
This is NOT a trading signal service! Please don't over trade your account! DXY is still struggling before the impulse. Our base order long is in and is safe already, now we suggest traders to re-long it from lower on 1Hr- 4hrs time frames chart for setting up the add orders. DXY has the same rhythm with China stock market and USDJPY with USDCNY as well.
We've seen all across the board US dollar's strong today.
Catatan
Re-long has been triggered, with Yen's tightening...... We should have some where squeezing from the DXY, Yen, XAUUSD rising together. Looks like Chinese Yuan has been removed pegging from inflation stable. USDCNY may have to rise to 7.0 for forming an harmonic pattern top in several months. We're watching China stocks market very carefully now, which direction goes with it?Catatan
Re-long from lower, again we've tired 3 times and 2 orders ST out at BE. It'll be an impulse on the chart. We suggest traders to take profit on short time trade in case of ST out.Catatan
If there's any lower, it should be around 91.455- 91.48 to form a Batman pattern. Macro Fund capital should wait for it. With TAX cut, US dollar and SPX500 both have 10% growth hasn't been priced yet.Catatan
Revived from 91.27 after US CPI data released, as predicted before.Catatan
We've been ST out again, a new low ( 90.93) below 91.01. Now we're looking for the expanded triangle breakout with the core inflation. There 're still questions about this lower.
1, If the core inflation is breaking out we should have AUDUSD ( miners) breaking the Sept. 2017 high too but the problem is that it's not breaking, yet.
2, The XAUUSD isn't breaking too. It's looks like full correlated but not lagging the capital flow.
3, The ATR in AUDUSD is lower than EURUSD, if US dollar dropping lower, the EU zone core inflation will be still weak. We need more volatile in the Oz. and commodities market to confirm it.
Catatan
1, We have a Battle zone in RED on chart. 2, A convergence: expanded flat 1.618, truncated 7 full target 1.0, 0.618 retrace from 2014 connector, the least traded area in this battle.
3, we have no guarantee that the US dollar will win this battle, market will fight it.
4, It should depend on the China stock markets direction.
5, we're more long than short, should go slowly before an impulse happens.
Catatan
Catatan
We may have started dropping from 10 months SMA already. If the BOJ can't help weakening Yen with a small purchasing, let the trend begin. Catatan
According to a FXCM data: The SSI is showing 6:1 net short on EURUSD, 6:1 net short on GBPUSD, 4:1 net long on USDJPY, 4:1 net long on USDCAD, 10:1 net short on AUDUSD, 10:1 net short on NZDUSD. We've never seen this extreme condition from US dollar for many years.
Technically, the price still can move before the extreme level turns. The extreme sentiment across the board is showing that we may have a trending market. All fibs on US dollar is failed now. Fundamentally, the USA hike may have been paused but we have to wait for the Feb. 2018 to confirm it. Yellen is leaving, as predicted right?
Catatan
We're gonna update some very important charts soon. Include DXY, USDCNY, USDJPY, XAUUSD, Etc. in USA and in Chinese version too. We're gonna publish new EURUSD chart after this month ECB's meeting. The core inflations are central banks jobs to do or they'll lose their trust from angry people around the world (We've seen Iran people done that with their wrong money policy).
We're in a period of 10 years culture revolution and culture movement in USA and EU zone ( EU zone members shall turn to right wings) also many countries around the world where has been enlightened from Brexit. It's a main stream now ( China leader is still stupid from lagging, it's the worst country where people will be beaten by "baguolianjun" - G8 countries).
Like predicted 3 years before. ( Our QQ group record can prove that we've predicted it in 2014. We've also predicted Brexit and many geopolitical incidents like NK war before those happens, in the QQ history record too.)
We suggest Pros and analysts looking the monthly charts for more clues. In fact, as an analyst, those monthly charts should've been remembered in your mind, if you look at them everyday.
Catatan
The Battle is wining by USA "great" again... When all Fibs numbers are failed, we should look for political influence and culture influence beyond the technics, right? We're human being after all and this is natural for all good. From the least traded area point of view, an heating knife is cutting butters. Honestly speaking, the breaking is too soon than our expected but it's very very healthy. Thank you! President Trump!
Catatan
We've predicted a "Twilight of the Gods" in the market. 1; Stock market could crash soon.
2; At first, the core one breaks out, then an US dollar bounces off.
3; At the US dollar bounce high point, the core one dips low, then a new QE.
4; DXY has shown an earlier break than the chart which has shown on 23rd. Dec. 2017.
5; Traders should use trend technics ( trend line, supply, moving average, Etc.) for trading, until the market proves its turning.
Catatan
If the stock market is crashing, the DXY could work as the safety oneCatatan
We've warned traders here: "Feb 2 Comment: We've predicted a "Twilight of the Gods" in the market.
1; Stock market could crash soon. "
It wasn't me......
Catatan
Now it's becoming technically "machine trading crash". But human being have predicted it, right? This could be the first stock market crash without squeezing into gold and Yen and US dollar, without geopolitic incidents using in our history. This is an under control crash. We're going to see the future soon, in 2 months......
Catatan
After a panic week, our suggestions here: 1; Do NOT sell your shares, now, traders need to hold for a bright future.
2; Our future depends on the inflation directions, it may fail but less likely.
3; The next week and next month are the key period for central banks actions.
4; We've predicted an core inflation breaking out soon.
Catatan
A better way for China: pegging with US dollar and hike to control the core inflation. It's very very important to follow USA money policies.Catatan
"Race to the bottom" for trade purpose and to the inflation top. Catatan
We've predicted a political shock on March. 2018 here. Be careful traders, be safe. The US dollar, weighted JPY, core inflation, shall benefit from safe heaven , please wait for revaluate the risks after we pass this key month.Catatan
We like Mr. Powell very much. He's very clear and very straightforward, Yellen looks like always has secrets. The markets really need an honest man in chair now because the very painful artificial crisis has been over. If our analysis is right, we''re in post mode already but still need to stay alert.
A social system collapse may happen here.
Catatan
Rule one of trading trend line: "When the trend line is broken, if the rising candle combination appears at first, in most cases the trend should resume. It may go to a parallel channel."
- Jared F. Martinez. The 10 Essentials of Forex Trading. ( ISBN 0-07-147688-1)
Yes, we read books.
Catatan
Traders! RISK OFF mode! Please leave stock market or hedge your shares now!
Please look back 2015 crashing. DXY may go down to 86.50 then rises to receive capital squeezing!
1; VIX above 20 again.
2; EA crossed 1.5800 EU zone inflation may go to -2%.
3; Renminbi's devaluation like the Aug. 2015.
4; China incident on March.
Scalpers in forex market should hold short term. It's enough to avoid this kind of risk.
Catatan
The US10Y yield is showing us a new QE has begun from 14th. Feb. 2018. Yes, USA is purchasing again... We suggests USA investors here: ( please leave EU zone stock markets, strong Euro dollar until ECB hike)
1; nail on the core inflation. ( along with 10 months SMA)
2; USA stocks need choose carefully in sectors. ( industrial, miners, resources, basic materials, inflation sensitive, avoid high tech and food and agriculture, they're growing too but less)
3; insurance company should focus on USA bonds market buying.
4; when everyone is expecting FRB cut, they're expanding, or saying the cut is done.
As independent analysts, we believe in chart but not what central banks fairy tales.
We don't work for PBOC and China banks they're sucks.
"Former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan: the bonds market is at the beginning of a bubble."
March 1, 2018 23:20"
Catatan
Everthing is okay for the future. No worries here, Cohn over reacted, he should’ve stayed. President Trump is a good guy, we have faith in him, he needs more time. Many people misunderstand him but with time goes they will understand.Catatan
We’ve re-entered the market after some profits taken before.Catatan
Even if we've had an second USA over heat phase in an second US dollar interests hiking cycle, doesn't mean we can't use a purchase in the US10Y bonds market, for helping the US equities growth and for pushing the core inflation synchronously. Do NOT misjudge the USA potential, especially China leaders are making huge mistakes by thinking of capitalism has gone to the end. Stupidizing... like predicted before, China is following a wrong guy (EU zone).
Catatan
There 6 meetings without Dec. 2018 hike, the Dec. hike is for a next year. We may have 4 hikes during 6 meetings.Catatan
The market is relentlessly, it wouldn't care if you're right or wrong but to do trend before reaching the reflection targets. After that extreme sentiments where many traders cut stop losses and give up hopes, then it shall rise from there with some corrections.Catatan
Now there's gonna be a trading war. The first world soft war is from 2011-2016, the currency war.
The second world soft war has begun, 2018-202?, the trading war.
Catatan
Summary:1. The USA is not necessarily targeting China in the beginning of the global trade war, but China must be prepared correctly.
2. Monetary policy of Renminbi should raise interests rate and should depreciate to push up core inflation, study the Federal Reserve. Or just pegging with US dollar.
3. Bilateral trade negotiations, abandon the WTO.
Any war has no bottom line and no rules, conquer is the rules, and abandon the WTO as soon as possible.
Catatan
This's showing you guys that we're not only market risks analysts but also strategy advisors. This is saying that from IPDE point of view, we can go the stratigy decision level than many other analysts, they have troubles to identify the first level. To be clear, we're independent analysts and we don't work for PBOC and China banks. They're sucks, right?
Catatan
Here comes the regular squeezing week. All market should bow to the US dollar then the hike.Catatan
Have you guys see the squeezing? it will last to the next week. This core inflation failure will lead to an other stock market crashing after 1 month. The future has a big problem is that we have many currencies in negative conditions, like Renminbi core inflation, it will drag down USA stocks.Catatan
Also the squeezing may be ending soon, after check up some pairs like EU, GU, AU ,NU, EJ, GJ, AJ, NJ, they look all good on 4Hrs chart without dropping into lower, yet.Catatan
The currently market condition looks like the same one as Chinese Renminbi deposit interests hike 11 years ago. Be careful here, traders, if China hikes then the FRB shall pause after the March hike to watch the inflation trending or not. Our prediction is 2-3 deposit interests hikes each one is 0.25% in Renminbi, after that China stocks may crashing, it depends on the speed of the hikes. If the hikes go very slowly, the China stock market may rise with core inflation in China, but still need to watch the interests very carefully.
Catatan
Sorry, wasn't me..."Mar 4 Comment:
2; USA stocks need choose carefully in sectors. ( industrial, miners, resources, basic materials, inflation sensitive, avoid high tech and food and agriculture, they're growing too but less) "
source: BBC news
bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-43481330
Catatan
We’re all good after Powell has finished his first show. Next concern is China hike, the possibility is very high over 80% in this year. If we pass the March then we go to the May.Catatan
Now we're at global trade war. The second soft war has begun, it should last several years with USA culture revolution movement together. "Mar 13
Comment: Now there's gonna be a trading war.
The first world soft war is from 2011-2016, the currency war.
The second world soft war has begun, 2018-202?, the trading war."
Traders should focus on China hike, very soon...
Catatan
The ECB is controlling Euro implied volatile, the EURUSD ATR may go down from here and it could effect the DXY. Technically, it maybe turning.Catatan
Congratulations traders! After President Trump has changed White House crew and has forced China come back to the negotiation table, the forex market shall be regulated again. If you guys can see the market, there're so many opportunities.
It's very important to make China follow the USA strategy, because from our point of view, China leaders are pointlessly and Renminbi's money policy is following wrong guys (the EU zone and Switzerland). China is more like USA than other economic zones.
For the USDCNY tight range, PBOC money policy should've done the same hike 2 years before, but for now, they're still delaying it. With core inflation breaking out in 2018, China hike will be inevitable. Because it's too late, China stock market will suffer the crashing after 2-3 deposit interests hike, each one is 0.25%. If they don't hike, Renminbi will be appreciated to balance the hyper inflation from US dollar (US dollar core inflation should go to 4% from currently 2%), China outport will be destroyed.
China is a loser already, in the coming second world soft war (the trade war) from PBOC's wrong money policy.
Also as always, we give the strategy here. China should hike slowly and devaluation, study the FRB, or just like HongKong dollar is doing well.
Catatan
An important low at 88.15 (ICE data) on 12th. Feb. 2018 may have been set. From now, we're bullish US dollar in 6 months, this effects the Euro dollar too. We're bearish XUAUSD in 2 months, this effects UJ too.
We have the chart but this time the publishing shall be delayed.
To be clear, this is NOT a signal service.
Catatan
On 4Hrs chart, DXY should go to 90.48 -90.68 inflection zone. This's saying EURUSD should go lower to 1.2200 -1.2238 area.Catatan
Comparing with the 2004-2006 FRB hiking cycle, from 1.25% to 5.25%, 16 hikes, each one is 0.25%, during 24 month. We calculate a same cycle but within 8 years. So from 2015 hike, we have 16 hikes, each year only has 2 hikes, on June and on December. Of course the March hike is a "disappointed" one.
Catatan
The risks for FRB are here: ( I don't think the FRB is seeing those risks and they're not prepared for them)1; There're only 2 hikes, each one has been divided by 6 months, this is not "ready" enough.
2; If the market crashes from some high risks events, like North Korea, trade war, Brexit; etc... They will pause the hike.
3; For an example, last real hike is on Dec. 2017, we've seen a fake hike on March, on May North Korea negotiation. If market crashes from there...
4; If FRB pauses there, the last hike will be where?
The last hike will be last year in 2017...... This is very lagging, the market will very very disappointed.
Now you can see the risks, right?
Catatan
“Mar 29Comment: On 4Hrs chart, DXY should go to 90.48 -90.68 inflection zone. This's saying EURUSD should go lower to 1.2200 -1.2238 area. ”
Our targets haven’t been met yet. Don’t be fooled by the April 1st.
Catatan
The question here is: why President trump (one of the smartest presidents since Roosevelt) is doing this? Here are some keys...1; An true hero looks lonely, but after a while people will see the truth.
2; America's tariffs are being negotiated as long as it lasts. (for USDCNY pegging)
3; Core us inflation will breakout in months, with the renminbi's together.
4; China will raise interest rates this year.
5; The fed should pause.
6; Thank you, President trump! Like always!
Catatan
For USA traders: ( Our analysis are always different)1; The history of the 301 survey to China suggests that the U.S. tariff negotiations will last as long as it can.
2; The current tariff is only a list, and the execution time is pending.
3; Because exporters fear tariffs, they tend to export before the tariffs. That is to say, as long as the negotiations are lasting, exports to China and the United States will have the opposite effect: a rapidly expanding trade volume and a huge U.S. export to China.
4. The dow Jones industrial average has formed a buying point, a low point for long-term trends. Boeing aircraft company should be bought.
Catatan
“Mar 29Comment: On 4Hrs chart, DXY should go to 90.48 -90.68 inflection zone. This's saying EURUSD should go lower to 1.2200 -1.2238 area.”
Now we’re at the 5th. swing, the 7th. swing should reach 91.40. Our point of view is seeing 6 months recover in DXY.
The problem is that EU zone core inflation is too low now. There 2 ways, 1; ECB do a real QE until Sept. 2018 (they’re tightening in negative before, in 3 years) 2; JPY rising, but less likely. Because Yen will hurt stock markets.
Catatan
Believe it or not, The ECB can push US core inflation breaking out too, with a good preparation for Brexit shock, yes they can play it again. ECB has warned U.K. companies to be ready for that condition.Catatan
This is NOT a signal service! Trading this may blow your accounts! Scalpers should use simple technics here. Catatan
Source: Fx street ( As predicted before, exporters should take this chance as long as the tariff is talking)marketwatch.com/story/kudlow-trump-taking-moderate-approach-to-china-tariffs-2018-04-06
Catatan
Source :BBC news ( Us investors should understand that Mr Trump's way of approaching to information is different, he sees opportunities in "chaos").bbc.com/news/business-43708119
We have predicted two futures:
1; China food inflation will be weak as a result of the "pork inflation cycle" fading.
2; Harley Davison motorcycle exports to China will be boosted, helping American auto workers and the auto industry, where have been hurt in years of weakening Yen and the cheap Euro. China will remove 20% of us car taxes, and Xi has promised to remove tariffs on imports.
Catatan
As long as the previous low 88.53 (ICEUSA) is holding, the 7th. swing should reach 91.44 before more dropping.Catatan
Source: ( News in Chinese) Guys, Renminbi's hiking on the way, as we've predicted it before. wallstreetcn.com/articles/3279558
"PBOC will remove the informal guidance on the ceiling of deposit interests rates for China commercial Banks."
Let's see what happens next week in China markets. We're watching forex market carefully too, This condition will be evaluated after a week.
Catatan
The US dollar will receive capital flows from EEM stock markets. When food inflation fading, negative interests will be over. Now many currencies are facing very low core inflation of 0%. Those lagging currencies hikes should cause their country's stock markets fall after the first hike. The us markets are volatile too.Is it revenge? It's going to be a thousand cutting? Like the previous 2011 cycle? We shall see ...
Catatan
Looks like everything is going well, just like predicted before.Catatan
Now we're witness that the EEM market is squeezing into US dollar. How high the DXY goes and how long it'll last, it depends on the capital flow out how strong. Because the EEM market has many countries, so this could be lasting very long time, in many months.Catatan
The key is that we only have 2 hikes a year, on June (works on July) and on Dec. (works on Jan. for the next year. Those fake hikes are obviously “disappointed” like the one on March. Pull backs in core inflation is gradually and inevitably. Get on the bus at every station and remember to get off at the stop top. The trend will make USA healthy economic growth in 8 years, stocks and inflation rising together.Catatan
Wait for the FRB on 3rd. May, the G8 forex market is alright for our prediction. We're now watching at the 10 months SMA and the trend should resume soon, as long as the rising trend is holding in the Iron ore.Catatan
US stocks traders should sell in the May and getting away now ( choose your sectors wisely). Because many risk in this Summer and commodities are rising, we suggest stocks market make correction from here and should re-entre on the Sept. low.Catatan
We're warning stocks traders now and before... Again, sell the May and getting away. Expecting a same drop like the Feb. to a new low from stock market soon. The DXY and the core one should receive capital flow soon.
Catatan
The DXY is in an extreme condition soon, short term pull back should happen before the next leg higher. ( we're not sure that there's a next leg nor not, maybe drop form here )Catatan
Some conditions are turning here: 1; The European Union imposed tariffs on the USA, and many EU countries are talking about support today if Iran's nuclear abolition undermines the EU's interests. (France, Belgium, Austria, Sweden, Finland, Luxembourg, Germany) The NHK news showed that Japan's tariffs on the United States at the WTO. There are serious problems with the us-china trade agreement. (President Trump wants to export agricultural products to China in an exchange for no ban on ZTE, but China has already grown soyabeans in the North-East. China is a bad player. In fact, it doesn't want to play at all...
2; We now predict that the global trade war will break out in June 2018 (within weeks) and should last for many years. We predicted a trade war in March. Ten days later, things happened:
"March 13: there will now be a trade war.
The first world war was the currency war of 2011-2016.
World war ii began, 2018-202? Trade wars."
"March 23: now we are in the midst of a global trade war. The second soft war has begun, and it should last several years with the American cultural revolution."
3; Risk off can increase DXY and core inflation together. We have advised stock traders to leave the market ASAP.
4. Please pay more attentions to the commodity market. We will soon have the import inflation. If iron ore futures and core inflation collapse from the DXY squeeze, the FRB will pause the hike and release market controls from commodity prices. If all markets default, new QE may soon start.
5; We are very satisfied with the present market, there is no worry. Prepare for the worst, and expect the best results. (interestingly, looking at the Chinese stock market)
Catatan
From iron ore futures cycle point of view, the DXY corrections ( a 3 waves flat has lasted 9 months from Sept. 2017, the flat can do C wave lower ) maybe over soon. It looks like Chinese Renminbi is gonna devaluatie again, but this time it’s monthly pegging with US dollar, they could drop together.Catatan
Traders should avoid thinking about correlations here, Us dollar and commodities may rise together in a risk off mode. Please pay more attentions to the "Dodd-Frank" amendment. Just like predicted, the second crash in the stock market has begun.
Catatan
We’ve known that it’s not gonna happen 2 months before... now risk off. Be careful here, market may break key levels, in core inflation. Looks like the predicted trade war will begin, soon.
Catatan
The SSI is showing us a net short 10:0 in the DXY, this's saying that US dollar can go higher. The FRB is concerning that the EEM market squeezing will drag down US core inflations to make the hike failure. They will devaluate US dollar again but not now. Catatan
Thank you for your likes! We can go to 98.8 before June's hike with less EEM market squeezing. We also can go to 102.68 before September's hike, for a worst case.Catatan
The US-NK first talk in Singapore can happen now but need to watch carefully. The horizon around 95.0-96.5 may form a new top where the Euro has pulled back 50% in its famous Fibs.Catatan
The core inflation is being watched carefully now in case of trend is a failure. The market condition now looks like in the summer of 2016 where the Brexit happened, in that case, US dollar will rise with the core one, stock market risk off as a compensation. Told you sell in the May, right?
Catatan
This's the best way we can get. Once NK problems are solved ( President Trump is working hard on that for his political assets) we should go back to EU zone risks and trade war, like predicted before, the second world soft war has just at its beginning stage, the soft war should last in many years. 1; We like Trump (an true hero acts like a bad guy, Buffet says) very much.
2; China situation may have touched the bottom, it can't be worse at its worst.
3; A signal for picking China stock market bottom has been sent 2 days before, now we've seen a good start today. (Traders should look at it)
Catatan
Catatan
Source: fxstreet fxstreet.com/news/us-commerce-sec-ross-even-if-eu-and-others-retaliate-impact-on-us-econ-wont-be-much-201805311426
fxstreet.com/news/eus-juncker-will-introduce-counterbalancing-measures-immediately-201805311414
Now the war happens as predicted before... ( The second world soft war, trade war, will begin in hours) We think Us-China trade deal is a good one for both side, in fact it's USA saved China.
" May 17 Comment: Some conditions are turning here: 2; We now predict that the global trade war will break out in June 2018 (within weeks)"
Catatan
If we break 95 level after a little weaker, then up to 102 with more squeezing from stock markets. Too many risks here.Catatan
Let’s see if 95 will be broken up or not, 88- 95- 102 maybe a good one. Many EEM currencies have not raised their interests yet, the lagging hike will make their markets crashing down one by one, and the leader one, the US dollar should take benefits from risk off and the core inflation should rise too. The SSI is showing a net short on DXY and XAU too. This’s saying that they can move together during the EEM market squeezing sequence.
The FRB hiking cycle can last many years from yesterday’s decision broadcasts. They may pause it silently but the hike should last as long as the inflation is rising... The IMF is wrong.
How many people think the US economic growth is on the top? Like China PBOC? They’re wrong, like always.
Catatan
Let it be... the trade war should give us import inflation soon, to save a lot from the paused hike. Yes, it has been paused since this year’s beginning... 2 years hike, 1 year pause, then 2 years, one year, 3 cycles, totally 8 years to fit President Trump Presidency and target 6% inflation, more GDP growth. If you misjudge USA economy growth then you’re with PBOC.
The market condition now looks like 2015 the Renminbi’s devaluating again. But it should be limited by DXY top around 102, in the EEM market squeezing sequence. This is good for US dollar pull back.
Please wait for the signals from President Trump’s Twitter ^^
Catatan
Looks like this chart now but higher to 102 from the Renminbi’s squeezing. Catatan
Sorry, my bad, it’s 98 not the 102 after redrawn the fork line. More like around 98. It’s very hard to get that high level because the market will crash after that.Catatan
NO panic here, the new range should stay in 2% inflation for several months before the FRB restart the new hiking cycle. Our point of view is that the FRB paused hike since Jan. 2018 for a while and watch the inflation cooling down also the US stock markets have been over bought where they need to pull back.
We should restart the second cycle for 4% target inflation and more US GDP growth. It's slow but strong, please remember it's an 8 years hiking cycle for Trump's presidency.
(2-1-2-1-2) we're now after the first 2, between the first 1, should go to 6% target in 2024.
How poor the Chinese people will be ? if there's no hike in Renminbi's basic deposit interests? God bless my people.
Catatan
We've said that "sell in the May and getting away", right? It's delayed by 1 month from US-NK talk and the trade war. Now. please leave stock market before it's too late. If the western stock markets are crashing down after the EEM market squeezing and all capital flows into US dollar to make it rise, if we fall to the 2008 low and DXY around 102 level, then the market should default. Then we will stop the hike and purchase again, which is a best way for us all good.
But we still have more possibility at 98 level to hike again from the FRB.
Please remember, the Inflation, stock market, DGP growth, one by one. If the first one fails then all fails, the inflation is leading our way, slow but strong.
We have 8 years to go, no rush here.
Catatan
Please be patient and be positive here, even if we have a stock market dropping into September doesn’t mean this’s the end of world, right? Wait for the capital squeezing is over before many central banks turning on the commercial currencies hiking cycle one by one to hurt the DXY. The USA-China should devaluate their currencies like crazy, in a condition where trade war has begun.
We’re more looking for the core inflation pullback than buying US dollar. They will devaluate it again. A better level 98 on the pitch fork line or level 102 at the worst scenario.
If we get 102, it looks like the FRB will stop the hike and the PBOC will hike in the basic Renminbi deposite interests which is too low at 1.5% now.
Catatan
There’s no right or wrong here for the technical analysis. We’re waiting for President Trump’s signal from his Twitter. It’s all about politics, since Jan. 2018, remember that?Catatan
Incoming dropping from equity markets, as predicted before, a little late... We made this call here 1 month ago.
Catatan
Thank you for your likes! For your supporting, we're showing your guys Renminbi index here...chinamoney.com.cn/english/
Please click BIS and SDR (CFETS is weak maybe due to currency basket difference ) to see the Chinese Yuan strengthening is over soon. It looks like that the PBOC has been against the FRB hikes and China has "WON" and Chinese people are getting slaughtered, money is losing, poor my people (you've chosen wrong guys result in this disaster...)
1; for equity markets, please come back after September.
2; for DXY, a little higher (98) and will drop to fight the trade war. (102 maybe)
3; some opportunities here, be patient and take profits after the higher.
4; holding positions too long will cancel your profits like now, trend is your friend but this is a channel, strong but slow.
5; trade war is just beginning, it will last many years, don't be stupid like PBOC.
6; TESLA and HOG are investing foreign factories, they're smart, because tariffs will bring import inflations and they have to play along with the trade war. How they can win? The only way is to build foreign factories. (TESLA shanghai will build 2 factories, an assembly line and a cell factory 18650/21700 cell core. HOG will find a way to build an assembly line in China soon, a prediction here for HOG). They're all rated buy in shares after the lower bottom is set.
7; Amazon... please sell, too high, and TAX...
Catatan
Please wait for the EEM market squeezing is over, it may last longer but USA can’t afford it soon, if the DXY reaches 102 then the US stock market will default.Catatan
Poor Germany, champion lost, money losing... one thing is pretty sure, the gambling company should win this year’s World Cup of FIFA.Catatan
Seen many talks about China bear market. We’ve predicted that before. Because of the PBOC don’t hike in basic deposite interests in Renminbi, the China market is against the core inflation trend in 8 years.
Same thing in EU zone.
Catatan
We're showing you guys the DXY measured China market, the 7th swing looks like will be completed, may be in 8 years during the trade war, slow bear. All war has no rules, USA may quit WTO soon. China should quit earlier, like we predicted before.
"Mar 13
Comment: Summary:
1. The USA is not necessarily targeting China in the beginning of the global trade war, but China must be prepared correctly.
2. Monetary policy of Renminbi should raise interests rate and should depreciate to push up core inflation, study the Federal Reserve. Or just pegging with US dollar.
3. Bilateral trade negotiations, abandon the WTO.
Any war has no bottom line and no rules, conquer is the rules, and abandon the WTO as soon as possible."
Catatan
Please remember that the trade war has broken out in June, we've predicted it 3 months before it happens. Also we've warned some top authors on TV, about the equity market the Feb. crashing and the May crashing (delayed by 1 month from NK talking).
now they're all fulfilled...
Catatan
To be clear, we don’t work for the PBOC, we’re independent analysts. If you ask them for the news (like today’s news) truth is they don’t know. We believe in that the China money policies are always wrong and always late. Because they’re blinded to the G8 forex market mechanics, who often drag down the market and often make squeeze into risk off. The funny thing here is, they think they’re always right......
Catatan
The IMF suggest the FRB to speed up the hike. We should have an huge hike like the first one in 2015 to start a new inflation cycle soon, after everything will be settled down. Just like retired board member Mr. Fisher’s saying, the EEM market should have hiked quickly to follow up or they will be squeezed. Traders must understand that in old days, the commercial currencies deposite interests are higher than the US dollar to maintain the inflation level. Now the old days are coming back and they’re still in the dream.
Wake up, or get beat...
IMF is supporting our prediction for 2-1-2-1-2 total 8 years cycle, we’re after the first 2 between the first 1. We should get the huge hike very soon, or the equity market may be dragged down by China crashing.
Catatan
We will see if 10 months flat correction (from Sept. 2017 to July 2018) is enough for the DXY to receive EEM market squeezing. From our point of view, the market condition isn’t at extreme. We may have a lower price of core inflation to force the FRB announce the hike pause to release the inflation and re-hike again after the higher inflation, if the US equity market crash after the China market.Catatan
The first strike from the predicted trade war just hit both of China-USA lands today. This isn't over yet, this's just a beginning... Stock market should drop more before the Sept. For Chinese people, you must be prepared for the worst scenario where the Renminbi's deposit interests won't hike for 8 years, and USDCNY drop to 5.0 to 6.0 range. Yuan is pegging with core inflation but not the US dollar. China may be in a seriously stagflation in 8 years, from 2017-2025.
Catatan
We will publish a new article about the Renminbi to talk about its price is too high or too low, and we're going to open that question to everyone in Chinese version. We are going to talk about why China may be fallen for 10 ten years losing in the future, in a philosophy way.Catatan
here come the joke: Can you image the US treasury biggest support, China treasury, who is holding the most of US foreign debt, just got fired?
Catatan
Here is a prediction for 2018 World Cup champion, guess what, the U.K.Catatan
Source: Yahoo, Dalio, trade war, US-China, global, inflation, risk off finance.yahoo.com/m/7609c899-5bf9-38a9-ab71-c864ffca2c03/founder-of-world’s-largest.html?guccounter=1
Too late, we've predicted it several months before, and China government is just acting foolishly as we've predicted it. ( Chinese people will take most hit from this war, not the politicians. Those politicians are selfish and wrongly elected by blinded people. For this reason, China maybe fallen in 10 years, in a trend of 40 years, this is a pull back until we change it back to the right tracks. Or China maybe follow the way of Soviet Unite...)
Traders should be preparing the worst scenario where China will sell off US 10Y bonds price to make its yield higher, and 2Y/10Y yields will be flatten, as the ultimate weapon. ( Also this is a mistake from PBOC, because USA is doing a QE with hiking simutenously. This is saying that China holding US 10Y bonds will be exchange to other countries, could be the Japan and other allies)
This is just a beginning.
Catatan
Source: Brexit, hard quitting, half quit, risk off finance.yahoo.com/news/sterling-reverses-gains-fresh-brexit-172100675.html
Now they’re going to play it again. Should be like the same thing in 2016 but limited by 98 area. Told you not over yet.
Catatan
Since our human history, there’re many injustice wars and many justice wars. From our long term point of view, the trade war is an injustice war to the innocent people. The truth is lying there, to wait for your discovery. Also if you believe in the God and have an honest heart, you will realize that, sooner or later.
Catatan
Boring, just like predicted before, Tesla do it, Harley-Davidson will follow. The big cities in China have banned motorcycle for many years, we predict this market will be boosted very very quickly. The family cars will be replaced by new energy vehicles, where Tesla Shanghai risk should be reward hugely. Populist has the characteristic of a speculation sentiment which is always wrong.
The truth is lying there to wait for your discovery. Victor.Y.F
Good has good karma, bad has bad karma, everything is gona be paid after all.
Catatan
England team go home, looks like they're too young to be ready fro the champion. This fits the half quit condition where has happened 2 days before...Catatan
Source: FxstreetFormer U.S. Treasury secretary Jacob Lew: trade tensions are a major concerns. Trade issues slow down the economy, but the biggest challenge for the U.S. economy is not trade. Don't use defense security as a false excuse to tax. It is worth that the yield curve has been a good predictor, and there are reasons to worry about the economy. Some of the dollar's volatility reflects policy chaos.
Catatan
It is very clear now that the FRB didn't hike since 2018 Jan. That is why the US CPI is calling down and holding there. 1; the US hike is a yields of US2Y bonds, it's a mature period after 2016-2017.
2; China should've hiked in April, they did it but failed because PBOC did it wrongly.
The market is out of control now.
Catatan
"Jul 8 Comment: Traders should be preparing the worst scenario where China will sell off US 10Y bonds price to make its yield higher, and 2Y/10Y yields will be flatten, as the ultimate weapon. ( Also this is a mistake from PBOC, because USA is doing a QE with hiking simutenously. This is saying that China holding US 10Y bonds will be exchange to other countries, could be the Japan and other allies)
This is just a beginning."
Now this is becoming truth. US commercial officer said that they will sell all stocks to buy US treasury... China is threatening to sell off US 10year bonds......
Catatan
This is our ways to see the market reactions:1; we put ourselves into it.
2; it is NOT a cause-because, it is a self cause.
3; for example, the US-China trade war and the China treasury holding US 10Y bonds; it is a test: the USA put a trade war to test Yuan Shih-kai (1859-1916) is friendly or not; put more pressure on the China treasury holding to test the friendship.
5; it's a strategy holding from China, if China sell off, it's saying China is NOT trusted any more......
Unfortunately we've predicted that China will be fallen under Yuan Shih-kai (1859-1916) ruling. Chinese people will take the most hits from this war maybe 10 years, we can see it but we can't change the history, until we change it back to the right cause. (don't underestimate people's power of China to change it, time will tell)
We don't work for PBOC, we're independent analysts.
Catatan
BOJ injected 2Bn Yen into the market in a condition of a floods in Japan. Watching weighted Yen very carefully now. 1; China falling is squeezing into Yen to make Japan core inflation failure
2; BOJ self-defence will be against Trump's will
3; western stock market can benefit from this weak here, EEM markets too.
Catatan
In case we're eyed by CIA and MI6, in a trade war, they're getting seriously. We will comment less on the story but we will stick to the market. (Even a joke about President Trump can get a ban soon, a culture revolution, like the populist do) 1; From a perspective of the devaluation Yen, the weighted Yen may depreciate to 5.8, like the end of year 2014, to form a double-bottom harmonic pattern.
2; China stock market may be a safe place, after the lowest point.
3; The shows begin with the United States and China competing to see whose stock market will be higher and who can devalue badly.
"A bottom line show, race to the bottom."
From now on, the trade war has been upgraded into a financial war. The extension of the previous currency war, the second world software war, has broken out, just like the one in 100 years before.
Catatan
Here comes the story: We shouldn't have this divorce now, because the USA-China are in the same condition where our economics have been heavily hit by the ECB and the BOJ money policies from 2008 and 2011. We're having this, because we're in the populist culture movement, believe it or not, China has a populist movement even earlier than the USA. Bad money drives out good money. So we're here to call people, to be honest, to be wise, follow your heart but not the anger. To be independent, to be individual, follow the good guys. Especially to be strong on holding your good positions, rights, resources, fight for the good don't let it down. Don't give up good. These are our ways to fight for the populists. (believe it or not we've been trough this before and now we're gonna fight it )
The truth is lying there to wait for your discovery.
Catatan
The city of Chicago went to Beijing's arm, think about Boeing aircraft company, HOG should come quickly, before it's too late. The door is closing soon......Catatan
We repeat the Shanghai Composite Index 2200 target and DXY higher to 98 or 102 target. From the leading index point if view, China term of trade will be worse. It looks like a ban trade to China around world will happen, the door is closing, from inside and outside. Crazy stagflation in Renminbi, and Chinese populist in charge the power. Stock market should drop to September before the FRB, could be worse, slowly drop into December and US dollar hike again.
Catatan
On chart, from a trend-based fib time point of view, the September is a key month for the DXY. It looks like the FRB pause the hike, or huge hike, or the ECB cancel negative. Catatan
President Trump shouldn’t have met with Putin. This is too much. He might’ve taken it for granted that he could do whatever he like but the politics don’t work like that. There’re three powers in the system, they administrate each other. Traders should understand that there’re so many people still think Russia is an enemy, especially those older people.
If the DXY rises up to 102 to make the USA core inflation failure again, believe it or not, some risks events will happen again and he might lose his supporting. We predict from here, his power may be limited soon, by the other two powers.
Catatan
Playing Brexit again, like predicted before..."Jul 10 Comment: Source: Brexit, hard quitting, half quit, risk off
Now they’re going to play it again. Should be like the same thing in 2016 but limited by 98 area. Told you not over yet."
1; For the stock market, this is the last dropping before the BOJ action. We've predicted a money policy window on Oct.
2; The most important news today is the BOJ has built a basic interests committee, an huge turning of ECB is "German ready" too. They will cancel the negative interests at first, the market should crash into a good place for the future buying.
Told you guys not over, yet......
Catatan
It looks like China market is turning around, we’re gonna watch it very carefully.Catatan
Source: FX street, US economy, President Trump, GDP growth fxstreet.com/news/us-pres-trump-we-are-on-track-to-hit-highest-annual-average-growth-rate-in-more-than-30-years-201807271347
Good point is that the DXY can go higher but limited, bad point is that this is usually a top of the market, the DXY and the US stock market should meet profits taking soon.
Catatan
Warning: EU and US market bigger corrections soon, this dropping is bigger than the Feb. 2018. Stock traders should quit all your positions now and wait for the Oct. 2018 BOJ and ECB money policy windows. Source: FX street, SPX500, EU market, risk off, stock market crashing,
marketpulse.com/20180727/ubs-says-us-china-trade-war-erode-20-sp-500/
1; Focus on the Brexit shows play out, this is a last dropping before Sept. 2018, should bring better opportunities on Oct. or later on Dec.
2; US-China trade war should be worse but the impact is slightly on both countries GDP, this's saying it's limited. But be careful guys, after USA published 2017 personal deposit interests as high as 6.7%, the PBOC may have realized it now. Renminbi may raise basic deposit interests soon.
3; As we look back 2007 China top of Shanghai Composite Index is 6124 points, it was beginning at the place where Renminbi quickly raised the basic deposit interests. So this can happen again by PBOC catch up the USA steps and may cause the FRB pause the hike. The FRB don't need hikes because the inflation should go higher with the collapse of the China market.
4; Yes, we will see how high it can go and how it will collapse, before not raise yet.
Catatan
Prediction now is supporting a raise in the Yuan's basic deposit interests ( 1.5% annually) in August to catch up with the fed's personal deposit rate ( 6.7% annually) : possibilities is more than 50 percent by now) See? China has lost already, inflation too high, Chinese people are poor by 5.2% now. 1; Yuan's 1Y interests increases 5.2% total, by per month 0.25%, plus 20 months, an overheat phase; Yuan's 1Y interests increases 5.2% total, by per month 0.5%, plus 10 months, kind of fast. For 20 months or 10 months, 5.2% has exceeded 6124 ( 2007 high points)in quantity.
2; Time window for an raise: from August 8 to August 16. The twenty-seventh day of the sixth lunar month is on August 8th; the lunar Autumn festival begins on August 7th and lunar valentine is on August 17th.
3; China raise may cause a big panic in the forex market and the western stock market. In fact, PBOC should've done this 2 years before, they're too old to do it. PBOC do have the resources to follow the FRB steps but they didn't, why? Please ask Yuan Shikai (1859-1916), leader of China's northern warlords.
Catatan
Source: Bloomberg, US-China trade war Breaking News: US & China to seek restart of talks to defuse trade war - Bloomberg
fxstreet.com/news/breaking-news-us-china-to-seek-restart-of-talks-to-defuse-trade-war-bloomberg-201807311333
This's important, guys, we'll see who is representing China to talk with USA. China is getting more seriously on the trade war and the US-China longterm relationship, then it's better.
After check all major US dollar pairs, it looks like the market is turning around in the DXY. SSI is showing some changes now. We don't know if US dollar is topping or not, but there's a chance.
Catatan
Source: market watch, China stocks, US stocks, correlation, opportunity, risk reward marketwatch.com/story/what-if-they-gave-a-bear-market-and-no-one-came-2018-07-31
Be careful here, the Renminbi basic deposit interests hike (lagging by 3 years) is fitting this scenario of opportunity. The hike shock to the market should fit the risk off mode, in 2 months and should fit the Brexit tail effect too.
Catatan
To be clear, like always, we do NOT trade news ( if you really follow up closely) Technically speaking, we insist that the DXY will go to 98 level or higher to 100-102 from a stock market squeezing till the September. Currently the DXY daily chart is showing a rising triangle where should burst out to complete the 5 wave to the higher target and then the fall.
Catatan
Surprisingly the US hike may have paused “before” China raise the basic deposit interests, just like the year of 2006 where the FRB paused the hike and waited for China market fireworks completion.
China can crash lower before the turning bull comes, please remember that the 2015 rising was an unhealthy negative in Chinese Yuan.
Will it deserve a second chance? We shall see...
Catatan
Alert! Global stock markets crashing on the way after the BOJ couldn't control JP10Y yields, weighted Yen rising as predicted before, the DXY should be squeezed into predicted area around 98/100/102 too. There's no safe egg after the bird nest fallen, not only the bird nest but also the tree is fallen soon. Please quit all your positions in equities......
Catatan
Boring...... The DXY is going higher, just as predicted before... meanwhile the EUDUSD now is breaking lower below 1.15, from the mathematic negative correlation with the US dollar.
Catatan
"Feb 2 We've predicted a "Twilight of the Gods" in the market." "Jul 27 Warning: EU and US market bigger corrections soon, this dropping is bigger than the Feb. 2018. Stock traders should quit all your positions now and wait for the Oct. 2018 BOJ and ECB money policy windows."
Now the crashing is coming. We call this is a "Midnight of the Gods" before the dawn. The FRB soon will face a situation of "do something", they may have to ask the PBOC to raise Renminbi basic deposit interests soon. But who knows, China is a dead walking now...
Catatan
O.M.G... darkest nights before the dawn. Hope you guys have quited all positions in equity markets, just like predicted before.Catatan
PBOC missed personal deposit interests hike window again, and the Consumer Staples are rising in China, people will be getting poorer and poorer. There's very few people can understand what's happening in China now...... God bless my people. (even they don't believe in him)
Catatan
Trade weighted US dollar is the one of the most concern by the FRB. Catatan
Guys... here we are... The risks are too high for the USA to afford now. ( Turkey things, Trump losses, very dangerous here to go up, time to trade with China. ) This is NOT a trading signal service, scalpers should trade on your own ways.
Catatan
Previously...now...
Apex of an new expanding triangle...
Catatan
As you guys can see, we're technical analysts, we don't trade news. As you guys can see, we're political analysts too, we're risks analysts.
We are forex traders too.
Catatan
Please open your monthly chart to see where is the DXY monthly candle will be closed. Of course, scalpers don't look month because it's no use... Be careful guys, the equity market is too good to be true. The trade war shock hasn't reached capital flow turning point yet. We have warned you guys several times before the collapse, like always do.
Catatan
President Trump’s twitter has showed the negative long signal to the market where will be more fortunate at once. We take this a short. After one year pausing, since the Sept. 2017 to the next month is over. FRB is gonna hike again. Please leave stock market ASAP. Check your chart on the first hike, the market has corrected 3 months and rising 2 years later.
The DXY second wave correction is coming soon, hope you guys can catchup with the waves in this month (September). Check the chart after the first hike, please.
Catatan
Source: Fox news A real hero... a real patriot. "America is always great" needn't to be great again...
video.foxnews.com/v/5829993308001/
Catatan
At this point, we only have a view of the DXY limited by 98, this may rise a little to form an head soon. The FRB will reboot the hike on Sept. ( there’s no meeting on Oct. )There’re also some conditions beyond the market to consider. The hurricane “seagull” has struck the Japan island, this may develop into the BOJ intervention on Oct. 2018 by the permission from G7 group, in an excuse for the rebuild in Japan, just like the tsunami many years before.
Catatan
Midnight comingCatatan
Speculators are heavily longing US dollar now, that’s saying, DXY is hard to go higher. Our technical chart support this index will form a down trend channel slowly. Looks like US10Y yields will be bought from the top soon. The new QE should begin with the second hike cycle together.Catatan
We believe the G8 forex market is benefiting from an hybrid condition, where the money policy and the deficit policy are working together. China market has no deficit policy and no money policy, that’s why my people are getting poorer and poorer, the suicide is slowly killing Chinese people with negative interests now. This is very unhealthy comparing with the USA triumphs.
We see nothing good in China until the personal deposit interests raise changes the Renminbi’s negative condition. All investments in China will be failed due to the stagflation.
Catatan
The DXY will show some spike candles after a Brexit deal suddenly achieves in following weeks. The BOJ money policy window will be on Oct. 2018, with Yen weakening the US dollar may bounce a little but limited, after that we should receive President Trump twitter signal. We will follow his signals but not blindly, identify them, then follow the market chart.
Catatan
Catatan
We know the stock market should correct during the first hike from the second cycle, because we understand the first hike in 2015 is an huge one, about 0.7% is almost 3 times of the basic 0.25% interests in US dollar. So this one is a same one maybe even better than that one. Give it a kick start, then working in 3 years. We agree with President Trump but not with Damon, because we understand the key of the market, weighted Japanese Yen is too strong. Yen now has some space to ease, it may form an harmonic bottom around 5.8 in 2 years. Please remember that Tokyo Olympic Games 2020, Japan should rise to be a “normal” country soon.
Catatan
Seen a lot of “end of the world ” talking, Damon and the Professor end of world Etc. We don’t agree with that. Investors should have more confidence in Trump, as we always say, he is a good guy and you’ve misjudged him. There’re corrections but we see all good from USA market rising with the core inflation. Some analysts have seen the same things happened in China market,like 2007-2008, then they think the USA should collapse in 1 year. They’re all wrong, because they don’t understand the negative.
We’re looking for a new bull market in China soon,
Catatan
Source: TV realmoney.thestreet.com/articles/09/18/2018/shanghai-composite-indexs-technical-patterns-arent-uplifting
2200-2400 fits our predicted area. China government has changed the daily close price mechanism since 20th. Aug. 2018, they may have stepped in already. But with a 200 Billion tariffs, this could crash into a scary game then rise. We prefer Shenzhen index because the Shanghai has to much food inflation like Mao-tai in it.
Catatan
Source: WSJwsj.com/articles/yellen-recommends-fed-formalize-lower-for-longer-guidance-on-rates-1536940808
Alert! traders! please leave stock market now, we will buy them back in later months. This's fitting our August prediction but "on retard".
We received Yellen's signal and immediately warned traders before the Feb. 2018 correction, very accurately. Now she's talking again...
Catatan
Source: CNBC They're gonna buy them cheap... what will you do?
cnbc.com/2018/09/21/mario-gabelli-wishes-stocks-would-drop-so-he-could-get-bargains.html
Catatan
Daily chart is good from here, it's forming shoulders.Catatan
In a risk off mode that the Brexit no deal quit, market may go higher to our pitch fork target around 97-98 for forming the candle spikes. For now the head is at 96.98 where the stop losses should be set. It's possible that the big players collect those stop losses then turn to go down quickly.Catatan
It looks like they let it be, the hike may have been ended...Catatan
"Oct 2Comment: In a risk off mode that the Brexit no deal quit, market may go higher to our pitch fork target around 97-98 for forming the candle spikes. For now the head is at 96.98 where the stop losses should be set. It's possible that the big players collect those stop losses then turn to go down quickly."
With USDJPY rising, the DXY is going higher to help big players collect small traders stop losses now. At the worst scenario, breaking to 102 after stock market crashing. We've warned stock traders many times before.
Catatan
Seen a lot of analysts calling for market top and financial crisis, we don’t think so. The stock markets pull back have been predicted before but very lagging, it’s doing the same thing like core inflation has done. The hike, the core inflation, the stocks, one by one followed by capital flow in and out. We’ve observed the hike should’ve paused already for 1 year, so the core one now is lower, then the stocks should be lower. The key is the BOJ. We’ve watched weighted Yen for many years, it’s too strong now, comparing to the Japan inflation. This’s saying that after the Brexit done, the weighted Yen weakness should be following, just like 2016. For the USA inflation good, the hike pause should be announced, they will let the market go and all risk is ON.
That’ll be the beginning of the crazy risk loose. The Kraken of crisis will be released soon.
Catatan
Please ignore IMF brocasting, they’re nerds, they don’t understand the forex market. Because they don’t understand the China stock market and the weighted Yen has a space to use money policy. The global risk on sentiment should push the stock market into dangerous high with China stock market higher.Catatan
Stock markets are doing just like have been predicted before ( spoiled too much ), now it's complied. Brexit now is a no deal quit ( 85% deal done and risk should be controlled) just like predicted before. After the 55 months SMA tested (TSL has tested it already) and the weighted Yen rise around 7.2, all risk should open by green lights.
Knowledge is power, knowledge is productivity for nowadays. But in China it's going into a wrong way.
Catatan
Bloodly... hope you guys have quit the stock markets already. We’ve warned many times since August, too lagging, not over yet. Wait for the Brexit done and wait for the BOJ money policy window at the end of October.Catatan
“Aug 2Comment: Alert! Global stock markets crashing on the way after the BOJ couldn't control JP10Y yields, weighted Yen rising as predicted before, the DXY should be squeezed into predicted area around 98/100/102 too.
There's no safe egg after the bird nest fallen, not only the bird nest but also the tree is fallen soon. Please quit all your positions in equities......”
Wasn’t me... told you many times during 2 months.
Catatan
Technically speaking, the core one is revenging the markets by very strong growth here. But if the stock markets drop quickly, then the pain will be less, the core one may go higher than expected by Brexit done. Then the China raise should follow up.Catatan
Goldman Sachs predicts the FRB will hike 5 times in 2019 which will be much faster than market expected, we agree with that, but consider the US10Y yield has reached top and US bonds purchase has begun already just like IMF suggested. If the US dollar's 3 years personal deposit interests (6.7% now) hike before is an arrangement, then the China Renminbi's personal deposit interests hike after that should be arranged for following it. That''ll replace the US dollar and Renminbi will do it very quickly to catch up the Greenback. We've predicted China stock market's running in 12 months to go up where is fitting the Goldman Sachs prediction. FRB may announce the pause soon, traders should be prepared for that.
Catatan
Worried about Chairman Powell now. If you’re in the culture revolution, you should’ve understood that you’re expendable for politics and populists. We’ve seen the USA hike has paused since last year but people wouldn’t believe and President Trump can’t afford the SPX500 failure anymore. In this case, we suggest Powell to admit the pause as soon as possible for keeping his safety here. Good people should stay in the chair. It’s very common to see bad money driving good money out, in human history.
It’s very sad to see Swedish Krona is still keeping negative, please don’t aim for China market it has an huge problem and it’s hidden. Western countries should’ve worked on the domestic inflation long time before. Don’t follow China, it’s really for your own sake.
Catatan
HSBC predict the FRB won’t pause the hike because of the SPX500 dropping. We disagree with that. The US dollar hike has been paused 1 year and no one would believe it. We’ve predicted the China hike should replace USA soon, maybe 5 times in 2019 just like Goldman Sachs predicted before.Catatan
A midterm major top may have been set, after Brexit no deal quit, just like predicted before. Since 2015 we've predict DXY very accurately, hope this keep going forward. We're closing this article, it's too long to read and for the next publishing on DXY (also EURUSD too, EURUSD has a mathematical negative correlation with the DXY, so we don't have too update EURUSD)
Stay tuned....
Catatan
Be careful to chase 98 spikes area here. The CME observer is showing 69.7% possibility of US dollar hike on Dec. 2018, could be lower within 2 months. Global stock markets need to wait for the Brexit process done before the 21, Trump and Xi will talk about the trade condition on 20th, hope you guys are okay with the forex market.
Catatan
DTWEXM US dollar trade weighted index has no new highs, DowJones FXCM US dollar index is ending the 5th. wave, EUDUSD has a major 3rd. wave of the 3rd. on the way if the first wave low is set, DXY is making fake new highs. Be careful guys, if USDCNY breaks to 7.1-7.2 area after Brexit, it's an hook...
Catatan
President Trump is gonna play his wild card soon, guess who? the house of China. In a point of view the historical characters, we shouldn’t use simple good or bad, we have to put them into the condition in that period and at moment. What they do and who they choose and why they have to do.
Politicians can’t turn the history back but just follow the way...
Catatan
Now the EURUSD 1.13 has been broken, inflation is failure by stock markets rising around the world, the DXY should make spikes like predicted before...Catatan
The Brexit has been priced in the China market, looks like the Sterling is making a show to prevent speculators betting on it. The weighted Yen will show us the way and the China market is leading to the rising. Good news is big fund ETF managers are weekly scalping in China market now, big banks are selling FAANG for profits to invest China, for example the SNB...
Catatan
Please do NOT chase the DXY top here, traders should wait for the confirmation of the Brexit then follow the trend. Weighted Yen should be weak, very weak.Catatan
USDSEK may show you the situations here: the Swedish Krona should've hiked long time before but they're following ECB for negative and aim for China import, now the consequence is coming. Catatan
For remembering George HW Bush, we're publishing some updates today. 1; President Trump is playing cards now, as predicted before.
2; The Ukraine problem is a new hot point. (It's very dangerous)
3; The trade war halts in months.
4; The stock market should rise when the speculators sentiment is extremely sad.
5; FRB will pause in 2019 to wait for China recovering and all risks will be set to free for feeding the pre-crisis monster.
Catatan
The stock markets are rising right? We’ve predicted this correction several months before now we’re gonna go higher, and speculators are sadly selling here. In the other side, the core inflation is rising too, consequently the currency should pay as the compensation. After the Brexit deal done, we may have weak US dollar.Catatan
Good news is that the Brexit may pull back after they repeal the deal, focus on the Dec 12th. . This could provide us a very good opportunity or very bad, meaning that this's an hedging time. Traders should avoid to trade GBP, in case of risk off. We shall see the DXY will break the pitch fork upper channel or not, and after that what the FRB may react.Catatan
It’s very interesting to see the weighted Yen hasn’t been squeezed after China stock market collapse this year. This’s saying that Japanese capital hasn’t pulled the money out of China, they’re not ready yet. They’re in the middle. The analysis are showing that our predictions are flexible. Because it’s based on the chart evidence but not the imaginations. Also the current Brexit deal may be repealed and Europe has lend a hand to the U.K. After the repealing, the market should drop then we should have an new 3 years hike cycle in the USA.
Again, the hike, the core inflation, the GDP, the labor market, and the last one stock market, they should rise one by one from capital flow in and out.
It looks like nothing can pause this hike here.
Catatan
A little risk off here, markets should be ready because the Brexit and the FRB hike are fully prepared. There's no B plan for the Brexit deal, because the repeal vote is the B plan itself. See? guess what is the A plan?
Catatan
Guys! The possibility of US dollar hike just dropped into 64%! Also the US10Y bonds yield dropped into 2.84% from 3.0%! Be careful here, we may have an good hedging in the hike, huge hike or the pause!
Catatan
To be clear, the US dollar real hike has been paused 13 moths, that’s why in market collapse to here. Now the FRB is gonna announce it to let go or hike huge to open the second cycle.Catatan
Can go higher with gold. This Christmas could be a very cold one. Even though, we're preparing some charts for traders.Catatan
The Japanese government (after Huawei is fired out of Japan market like we've predicted) is considering a stimulus package of about 2 trillion yen due to a consumption tax hike next year, the nikkei reported this morning. BOJ is the only one who has some space to perform money policy among those major central banks. Central banks should've hiked 3 years before, now the poverties are spreading from China into France and Italy who is against ECB negative policy too.
We shall have a meal time soon. Weighted Yen should form a harmonic bottom (around 6.0) in 20 months.
Catatan
Global stock markets are buying now from the lower. Please check our analysis, we don't give a shit on TV. We've predicted right about many actions, usually several months before they happen.
Be careful here with Renminbi faking a break into 7.1- 7.2, then the PBOC may hike gradually in the personal deposit interests from 1.75% and cut the 1 year short term loan interests from 10.0%, which should've narrowed many commercial banks profits in China.
The DXY may go higher too, with weighted Japanese Yen weakness.
Catatan
If this breaks then it should go to 100, we have no bias here. Catatan
President Trump twittered about FRB hike yesterday, again. For the Chairman Powell, there're 2 choices: one is an huge hike like 2015 and the same 3 years cycle; two is an announcement of the pause.
The FED decision is a vote, it's very possible that they may manipulate tickets among those chairs. We know that President Trump wants to trade with China for the best of US stock market which is dropping hard now. The political correct is the SPX500 in the USA but not the dollar, no President can afford the failure here, especially Trump has lost the U.S. House of Representatives.
So at this condition, professionally speaking, here we have an opportunity of hedging trade. Hedging is a two way trade, which is usually to trade a clearly big volatility and a certainly big uncertainty. It's very technical and need team working.
BTW, this publishing has 1068 viewed and only 15 agreed, on this accurate chart and the before chart, what're you looking for? Bitcoins or any fancy coins?
Catatan
Now be careful guys, would you believe that the US dollar may cut rates here? Today commercial banks in Shenzhen China has cut the first home house loan rates from 15% to 10%, which has been predicted before. This should affect to the 1 year loan rates ( at 10% high) soon.
Chinese poverty has affected the French people already. Because the ECB money policy is an export leading policy, with the trade war and global culture revolution movement and the Brexit, European has big problem now and the ECB has done nothing to change the negative interests.
The yellow jacket revolution movement in France is the beginning sign of an energy revolution of human being technology upgrade. It could last months and years.
The negative policy and the poverty, they’re squeezing the new innovations from the expensive energy and the crazy price of food. This will lead us to a new future. After many disasters, humanity is still blessed with God.
The history shall move on, follow up or against the future, it’s your choice.
Catatan
Traders should understand that we don't believe the hike unless the forex market shows US dollar weakness clearly and the core one closes above 10 months SMA. For this moment here, we ain't see nothing. It's Christmas holidays soon, markets are boring, the yearly profits should be taken, nothing big.
Catatan
Breaking news: Source Riksbank (the Sweden Central Bank) riksbank.se/en-gb/statistics/search-interest--exchange-rates/repo-rate-deposit-and-lending-rate/
Finally, Swedish Krona is dragging down US dollar now. A good start. Think about the mathematic negative correlation from the Euro dollar, if ECB hikes... one day
Catatan
Wish you all have a Merry Christmas! and Happy New Year 2019!Looks like they really don't care the SPX500 but the core inflations.
This is what we've predicted before:
"Sep 19 Comment: Source: WSJ
Alert! traders! please leave stock market now, we will buy them back in later months. This's fitting our August prediction but "on retard".
We received Yellen's signal and immediately warned traders before the Feb. 2018 correction, very accurately. Now she's talking again...
"Sep 22 Comment: Source: CNBC
They're gonna buy them cheap... what will you do? "
Now we're waiting for the 2019 market open, for the "buy them back".
President Trump is losing patience on the SPX500, we've seen he've pull out army funds from Syria to support the market. The weighted Yen should be weak soon after a top.
Traders should understand that no president can afford this failure. Trump is capable of doing anything to support the market, he's a little panic here, where he may have made wrong decision of releasing the risks to let all market go for free, in 2019.
Catatan
Source: CNBC cnbc.com/2018/12/28/trump-administration-asks-investors-for-advice-on-stock-markets.html
Interestingly, guess those investors maybe Buffet and Soros. We here again to say buy the cheap, as many speculators selling stocks we do the opposite. Just like predicted before.
BTW, we suggest scalpers avoid trading CHF because the SNB is not a reliable bank since 2015.
Catatan
Finally Jack Ma says something make sense publicly in Shanghai. After his retirement, with verything let go, he should've given up a fighting with President Trump and he becomes very objective which makes him a better man. We have more confidence that China market could be better in 2019, after 2018 disaster and collapse into a bottom. It's very hard for us to understand that it takes 3 years waiting befor they just realize it now. For Huawei, they may go down lower before they change the attitude.
FRB should've hiked sept. 2018 but they've delayed that, so the market has 3 months struggling, same 3 months should be there, after March 2019 we buy it back after the core one topped. Maybe the US-China trade deal will be done.
We suggest traders to avoid buy Yen strength here, the BOJ should do something soon. We've predicted Yen will perform the last money policy befor the Tokyo Olympic Games 2020.
Catatan
Breaking news: the BOJ nd Japan treasures and financial department are gonna meet Tokyo Time 13:00 (Beijing Time) 12:00. In 1 hour. This fits our predictions before. Be careful guys, BOJ may have an intervention soon. Because of global stock markets crashing and Japan investment lost, they should perform the last money policy before 2020. They're not ready, yet. In 2019 March, Japan will have a new Empiror, we shall see.
Catatan
"Speculators don't know they're speculative, this is called the double ignorance." Traders should buy the stock market low here, it's landed on the moon. BOJ will perform an intervention directly. Rumors are coming, just like predicted before.
Here's the joke:
China just landed on the moon yesterday, on the back. The target was destroy transformers base, it's failed because there's nothing on the dark side of the moon. It looked like transformers had hided.
Catatan
The USA has downgraded relationship with EU zone yesterday. Qualcomm has got the forbidden law of the Apple sale in Germany. Looks like we're really in the second soft war now ( just like predicted before), the trade war. In 2019, the trade of USA and EU zone may have huge problems. From 2011 BOJ intervention to 2015 negative interests of Euro, for many years USA and China suffering great stagflations and enjoying the purchase power of their currencies. Now this has been turned.
With FRB's pausing the hike and observing the core inflation, now the China is on the show. We've predicted China QE has begun like the USA purchasing 2008. They let the prices in all markets go for free soon.
Traders should've looked for opportunities in Renminbi now, just like governor Carney's said.
The core one should have more growth before it's topped.
Catatan
Some chairs in FRB are speaking. ( They will observe for at least 6 months, they've regretted the last hike has a little "risk" to harm the market. They say market should have no more expecting from the hike. )We've predicted that the SPX500 will struggle for 3 months before the rising, people may not have that patience, especially President Trump can't wait that long. Chairman Powell may announce the pause before the April 2019.
Interesting to see some Chinese scalpers expect yields higher in US10Y here ... speculators double ignorance.
Catatan
The Brexit deal votes in parliament soon. The Japan government repairs budgets 2019- 2020, they may do the last intervention after the core inflation topped, of course with a permission. Many people believe in the free market but we're people after all, the FRB now facing political pressures not only from the President but also from the people.We believe that everything is under control in the forex market now.
Catatan
The USA hike is never wrong but the time window is the key of the art of control. They should have hiked on Aguest 2018, last year summer, but they delayed it by 4 months. This delay should cost 3-4 months struggling in the SPX500 where may cause the mistake intervention from BOJ to push the stock market into historically dangerous highs... the last meal.Catatan
Again, the hike, the core inflation, the labor price, the stock market, capital flows in and out, one by one. If one delays, next one delays too. This is old way and for the long run and for the healthy. But in present days, people don't have the patience to wait, they want to the high quickly. This is a culture revolution movement, please remember that.
Catatan
Hong Kong levels personal salaries 8.7%, shall affect 1st. May. An huge hike In Hong Kong dollar. Seeing huge core inflation growth there. Good for all assets in there. But China... disasters can go on unless the bank law changes from law makers, during yearly er-hui meeting...Catatan
Some questions about the Apple: 1; each time OS X and iOS upgrades, some applications force consumers to buy new version, do Apple know that? or Apple should pay that for us?
2; the battery last shorter after the "upgrade" or saying "downgrade"? it that honest or cheating?
3; Chinese poverty did Apple know it? now, a little late.
4; why the i Watch has to be connected to an iPhone? is this another trying to force consumers buy iPhone?
Think about Microsoft.
Apple must change now, do it slowly and be honest from here.
The spoiling is over.
Catatan
Grandma Yellen, "we may have experienced the last hike during this cycle", "the very low interests should have kept very long time." Now what? Now is the China show.
Populisme PBOC is doing the opposite of the FRB, so if USA pauses then the Renminbi should hike, instead of the USA. Or they will purchase the QE but Chinese version, anyway it is the same way. We suggest traders to look China stock market for the last meal, after the harvest shall follow the collection and the slaughter , an huge crisis is in the future awaiting us after the China top.
Catatan
Brexit public second vote has been predicted before, but predicted in our QQ group. Now it's confirmed. The Brexit is correlated with China 2015 top, this's saying that China should've the second topic months. Again, We suggest traders buying the lower from stock markets, the core one will top soon. The weighted Yen should move by BOJ into 2014 low.
If you short the stock market here, then you've proven yourself a "speculator". The Hong Kong HSI(Hang Seng Index) strongly moving 500 points from the huge hike of 8.7%.
Catatan
A second season of Star Trek Discovery, looks good. But the first episode is a little complicated for the newbies, and guess those aliens should be some kind of shape shift type. Keep it simple and the viewer experience flurence is the key.Catatan
Source: fxstreetGerman chancellor Angela merkel: monetary policy must return to normal as soon as possible. Global institutions ( central banks) must do all they can to ensure that another financial crisis is avoided; Global institutions need to be reformed so that they can deal with a change.
Guys, negative may cancel soon... too late, the deep cut in the culture movement has been starved, the hatred has been spread... last meal guys.
Catatan
FRB is pausing, right? like predicted before. After the last hike, the inflation is still leading the market. Now it looks like the stock market has a little too low and the core one is too high, the later one is topping.
Some kind of money policies should change the situation, the stock market shall catch up and leading the inflation again, for 2 years.
The US dollar pause will be 2 years, fitting the Tokyo Olympic Games and the China market rising and, of cause the second vote in Brexit, after the China collapse.
The new Emperor of Japan will take place in 2 months, it will decide the weighted Yen and the market. (weak of cause)
Catatan
The EU is considering a new tax about TESLA, after APPLE received forbidden law in Germany, the US- EU relationship has been downgraded last month. We've seen a soft war of trade war since last century, 100 years cycle. We're predicting EU zone now is making huge mistakes here.
The human being energy revolution is happening in USA. (believe it or not we've predicted it before and we're making this device) We've noticed President Trump's report has something very very important. This technology is going to lead our new future. Which is the revolution of space travel (anti-gravity) and many scientific fields are gonna change.
Again, China had himself lost in the culture...
Catatan
Please focus on China market in 2019-2020 before the profits taking happens. The DXY may go a little lower and it could break the 2 pitch fork upper channel lines with the last using of BOJ money policy and the ECB following it.
Please remember, we still have 2020 Tokyo Olympic games there.
Catatan
previously now
Catatan
It looks like in the first half year of 2019, there's an other hike in US dollar. The core inflation isn't high enough to pause here, unless no deal quit, but it's less likely now. The second vote has more than 50% possibility said Tony Blare. ( previous PM of U.K. ) After the July, core inflation tops and may fall to next year, April 2020 ECB shall hike.
Catatan
With core inflation going automatically higher to 14, the Treaty of Lisbon ( 2009) is extending, there's no need to hike from USA and no need to no deal quit for now. The core one may have a blow up top, then the pull back. ( it more looks like the China hike )The Brexit is delayed and the second vote is realizing (like predicted before ).
We believe the risk and the market correlation chart, we don't believe superstitious and we're against de-modernization. An history lesson, China republic was born in 1911 founded by Sunzhongshan(ROC) a leader of Xinhai revolution, enhanced by Maozedong (PRC) in 1949, now it's pulling back.
Catatan
Brexit delayed by at least 6 months and the second vote is for sure to us. We can predict Brexit in 2016, before thhat, we can predict China stock market top in 2015. Consequently we can predict them again and again. Once everything's on the track, you just wait the market run itself.
Catatan
Recently the movie Forest Gump (1996) is showing again. Still one of the best 10 movies among all. It's a little purposely but still good for early film. It's shame that Jack Ma has so much money and he hasn't an ideal to film this kind of movie to show the China contemporary history where is from 1949-1990, the history dramatically turns and people survive. Hard to find an especial one who can make it right but not sad, just like Forest Gump.
We're closing this chart, it's too long to read already. We'll publish an new DXY.
Stay tuned......
Catatan
The PBOC may precious the Chinese Yuan ( China RMB) for 10%, and the XAU/CNY may drop 20% from here.
We don't know how the ECB and FRB is gonna do, or saying we don't know the US dollar will follow the XAU and keep it high or not.
It's not high enough for the USA core inflation but the data is worst from this year's beginning, so the pause is true. Then we shall go to the squeezing way.
Catatan
The news is that Huawei is gonna charge USA government and Canada too, typical stupid. It's not the law but the culture. They have cognation disfunction, or saying they're the populism itself.
Catatan
The right way is to call President Trump, he's hinted them already. Just make one call can be harder than a stupid law processing? Which is must be failed and meaningless.
Stupid, very...
Catatan
The question is WHY? We have been talking about this unhealthy for 3 years...think about ECB money policy... the negative is always "negative" to EU zone from cultures to economics.
Source: Fx street, Reuters
Reuters reports the recent comments from the European Council President Donald Tusk, with the key quotes found below.
“There are external anti-European forces, which are seeking – openly or secretly – to influence the democratic choices of Europeans, as was the case with Brexit and a number of election campaigns across Europe.”
Catatan
The Boeing 737 MAX accident is an historical event. We see it as a culture return. From here, there shall be more humanity in the automatic control system, it should be the main control in the loop, the AI is discarded. If the system fails, we should have human to take responsibility but not blame the AI system. Which is like the movie "Terminator", machine kill human, the AI is more like the sky net itself.
The Brexit, blah blah, blah blah...... many speculators are trading it as a "risk". For us, it was the past, right? There's no risk anymore if you're ready for it, we see it a stock market buying signal after March.
Catatan
Source: yahoo financialCatatan
investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-current-stock-market-rally-apple-stock-microsoft-stock-boeing-737-max/The Intel and the Microsoft are good now, looks like the chips and the electronic parts are leading the bull now. Other sectors are still need more weeks. Anyway the shoulders are forming by the core one rising to the top.
Catatan
Pulling capitals from oversea. Catatan
The Huawei CEO "Kylo" Ren: said "Trump's strategy is wrong" on CNN. ( He even doesn't know who is his friends, cognation disfunction)
said "Huawei technology is more advanced than western world" on BBC. ( typical populism, and publicly humiliated himself. )
The most dangerous thing is, Ren is risking his daughter's future for his own imagination, which is no humanity in his thinking. He's going into wrong ways , very desperately. Huawei may be ended badly...
Catatan
This month March 2019 is a key time window for Japanese Yen and the forex market also the global stock markets. The new Emperor, now we're look at his taking place. The 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games in summer should bring more weakness from BOJ. The Brexit is going to our prediction accordingly, appearently 1 year delay, at least.
Catatan
The data is showing China industry collapsingSource: China Government data
"China's industrial enterprises the annual profit (YTD) in January and February: -14.0% before: 10.3%"
With 2018 whole year 10% interests in loan but the 1.25% interests in deposit, negative is going deep from PBOC, which is causing Chinese comsumers poverty and industry productivity crashing from lagging investment effect.
We've talked about this wrong money policy for 4 years, USA is good but China culturally going to the opposite, which is making this crashing finally.
Catatan
We're NOT "the best macro analysis" on TV, we're more technically on chart and watching the market like a case investigation by the physical evidence from eyes. We're NOT superstitious, we needn't looking stars on night to see the futures (like a few Chinese is doing now, de-modernization).
We do NOT do "logical" deductions without evidence.
Catatan
Fed's Kaplan: "Modern currency policy is NOT a theory but a political philosophy". See? Now our followers may have known the philosophy is important, which most of Chinese have never been educated in the high school. The education flaw in China is making the present disasters.
So for an whole generation education failure consideration, this should last 10 years collapsing, at least. The culture revolution and the de-modernization.
Catatan
After many guesses, the new title of Japan reign is announced today, acts on May. This is very very important to China, from our point of view, this new title looks quiet familiar to the old title 100 years ago. Where the WWII happened.
Chinese characters metaphor is showing the old title means the "peace dead", this new one is showing the "peace is forced".
So why the China collapsing is so important to the USA national security? Think about the Japan, they shall rise without China balance the peace. This's why National security adviser Stephen kudlow worries about, after we updated the philosophy education problems and the de-modernization in China.
We don't work for the government but we still care about people.
Catatan
What is the "political philosophy"? It's about justice( law) and equality( right) and the publicity, they are the foundations of modern country.
v.youku.com/pad_show/id_XMzQwMjcyNDYw.html
Catatan
The USA punished the Airbus and the Euro zone food import for 10 billion. Interestingly, China government looks like picking up the wrong side of this soft war, just like 100 years ago. The Yuanshikai picked up German Empire advices to restore the Qing dynasties and ended badly... The real "great trade war" has yet to come we may see a currency race, into the bottom.
Catatan
Central banks feel like enough of playing games, we've predicted BOJ should act in this month for welcome the highest wave of Nikkei to the Tokyo Olympic Games 2010. Watch out Germany policies, EBC may cancel the negative interests to enjoy the BOJ money policy or they will suffer a negative rising.
It's a time to turn to positive, the second wave corrections in the DAX are ending. If the major third wave of the last wave comes, it will crash because of the negative interests.
Catatan
We hope that traders can understand the negative. We know it's difficult. Believe it or not the FRB are still misunderstanding.Catatan
Boring days in the forex market and the stock market has been rising again. Just like predicted before, we buy it back after March, the 2019 whole year rising probably. Now the BOJ will act or never. The problems are the core inflation and the XAU also the virtual reality is coming back. We don't think the 2015 low will be broken in the gold market but there should be better choices in the miners sector, than the precocious one.
At this moment the USD could break out by a BOJ intervention, within the G7 group's permission, the last meal is serving now. Or the crashing but not likely.
Please remember the 2020 Tokyo, Japan will show the power.
Catatan
HOG is a buy BTW.Jun 26, 2018
Comment:...
6; TESLA and HOG are investing foreign factories, they're smart, because tariffs will bring import inflations and they have to play along with the trade war. How they can win? The only way is to build foreign factories. (TESLA shanghai will build 2 factories, an assembly line and a cell factory 18650/21700 cell core. HOG will find a way to build an assembly line in China soon, a prediction here for HOG). They're all rated buy in shares after the lower bottom is set.
7; Amazon... please sell, too high, and TAX...
See?
Catatan
The German Government Bonds 10Y yield has gone to negative since April. We've observed dramatically turning in the gold market, during 2016 Brexit period.Simply saying, the massive rising has been turned into dropping, negatively. A secret weapon.
Traders should keep buying in the stock market, we're in, when it dips.
The DXY can go any where from this condition, what's the most matter is the SPX500.
Catatan
Ironman should be recovered from the audience demands, sorry for spoiling the plot...Catatan
Let's clock it today.For US dollar
2015/12+ 40= 2015/52= 2015+48+4= 2019+4, it's time to begin a reflation cycle this month. The FRB(FED) may adjust purchasing 10Y Bonds soon.
SPX500 is dipping, remember we buy the lows. Technically speaking, closed above 50 months SMA after the dip.
For Chinese Yuan
2012/4+ 80= 2012+84= 2019/1, including 2015/8+40= 2019/1. The whole cycle completed on January, but the Renminbi is still in a negative interests, it's hard to say which clock is it now. They always do it wrongly, until they realize it, then they move it aggressively which always causes China market rise rapidly and crash more quickly. We hope that people will solve this problem once and for all, in the future, after China joins the forex market. Once that goal achieves, then the core inflation is a real problem.
Catatan
News is President Trump was thrown a phone by a supporter and missed. There're still some US people think he's cheated in the election. We don't think so. He's a good guy, supporting by workers, farmers, and military, he's a benefiter in the USA culture revolution. He will make 8 years, just like we predicted in 2017. Traders should be careful to chase the higher DXY, it looks like the FRB( FED) may cut RRR in the meeting. A reflation cycle should've begun.
The Japanese are in a culture revolution now. It's reported that two knives has been shown on the desk of Emperor's grandson, a power fighting. We've predicted Japan incidents in our QQ group before. It's just a beginning in Japan. An 100 years cycle.
Catatan
Market is an human creation, so culturally they're the same thing, especially it's connecting with the human being emotions and spirits. So let's show you guys what we have seen beyond the market. On this chart, we again show you the mathematical correlation between the US dollar and the "German dollar" called Euro. Sometimes people couldn't identify which is which, can the FRB ( FED) identify? We really don't know.
The Iron man cycle is ending.
Catatan
Catatan
To be clear here, we're warning traders on trading US dollar, DXY can break out before the cycle is confirmed. The market correlations with the SPX500 and the commodities can be turned massively, the capital may flow out into EEM market, where is the lowest water level. In that situation, the DXY could be a compensation, after the extreme reached and the positions washed.
This can go to 100 and plus...
Catatan
Like this...... Catatan
Please remember how good we're at the technical chart analysis.Catatan
FRB( FED) cut RRR from 2.40% to 2.35% as predicted before and hold interests to admit the core inflation is lowered than expected. The US-China trade deal will be announced before 10th. May. This will give the forex market assurance to move, but after we've checked up some other Asia countries currencies like Korean Won, the squeezing will happen some cycles later.
Catatan
Like this,...Korea still wants to devaluate the currency for gaining output attitude, in the trade war, small countries could be harmed more than vast land countries like USA and China, because their resources are limited.
If China is stabilizing in months, Asia countries may have some more cycles to wait for the squeezing coming again. It will happen later.
There is NO "time" at all. Einstein told us, time is human culture, it doesn't exist in the universe.
There's only cycles and no time at all.
Catatan
Sell in the may and getting away? Please ready to pick up the lows, with China market collapsing again, the BOJ intervention is still on the desk, President Trump will call Anbei tonight. ( Tokyo time) Or the PBOC hike... too late, including RBA hike, RBNZ will cut for sure.
Catatan
Traders, Please be careful to chase the highs here. If this is a breaking point, it should've a pullback already, but we've seen nothing.
Technically speaking, this is an unhealthy growth.
previously...
and now...
Catatan
For our followers clarities, if you could see it, we've adjusted the pitch fork lines. It looks like we're still at the 2008 mirror line where the lowest DXY point 70.698.
There is an heavy mirror line at the upper edge of the big black triangle.
Simple rules here, we go to 94 after the hidden trend line is broken, where is the dashed black line, then we jump.
The question is jump to where?
Catatan
To be clear, we're not saying the USA growth is unhealthy, we're saying the currency is too strong. In a condition where the core inflation and the SPX500 rising together, the forex market is working well in 2018 from China's compensation. But it couldn't last forever, right? if it stops, then the compensation should be the currency itself. We've pointed out 2001 pre-911 DXY top and 1985 DXY top on the chart already.
For FRB( FED): The thing is that you should've paid more attentions to your currency strength, it will always lead to something bad, even before that happens the market has made a top already. Think about New Zealand... We've said the Kiwi is too strong for 3 years...
Now the key question is, do FRB( FED) know which currency are you using now?
Is it Euro or the US dollar? in a negative way?
Truth is boring. - Denis.Y.Y
Catatan
The VIX rises t0 40 with China stock market rising in a negative way, which is dropping hard, the SPX500 is following it. Global risk sentiment is all in one market, the forex market. In this condition, the DXY and the weighted Yen and the core can rise together.
We still insist on an BOJ intervention is on the desk.
Catatan
Wait for the entries in the stock market, the second leg lower will happen. The US-China trade deal should have some weeks to make. We may have to wait for the June to confirm it. China may hike in 2019 summer. Capital could flow out from western market into EEM market, where's the lowest water level. The last meal and the squeezing again after that.
Just focus the lower buying, stock market rising may last months into 2020 Tokyo summer.
Catatan
Finally China fighting back, which is too late, we've been saying this trade war for 3 years. Chinese people individuals have suffered huge losses during 3 years and the PBOC laughed about them last year. This time it's ready, with loser. A little history here, (a lesson for people don't respect history and people who don't care) 2019 is 100 years of 1919 where Xinhai revolution started the China republic and an new era began, since Qin dynasty, 2000 years the old Dynasties fallen.
2019 is 40 years of China open borders since 1979.
It's 30 years of 1989.
A 70 years birthday of new People's Republic of China.
All history shall be measured and counted in this year, no matter failure or succeed.
Catatan
We're having some problems with visiting internet, before we may be shut up, here's the thing. It's more looks like the Renminbi interests hike is on the way. With the USDCNY pegging tight, FRB (FED) needn't rise at all.
We don't suggest buying gold at this point, the stock markets have more rising and the miners should be better than the metal.
Catatan
Catatan
Looks like the market cycle has been delayed by months, it's very unhealthy now. From our point of view, there will be bad things happen in the USA or in the EU zone soon. The market is always turned before that happens. This could happen in China, but China is at the worst scenario already, can't be worse.
Due to the negative interests, we couldn't predict it's where.
If in the USA, could be JFK, be careful here a remind to President Trump.
If it's in the EU zone, could be the ECB money policy turning.
Catatan
With China market rising negatively again, the squeezing has pushed the DXY higher to test higher long term pitch fork mirror line from 70.698. The weighted Yen rising again to test Jan. 2019 high. Funny thing is the PBOC don't know the negative in the Renminbi. Be careful here, the USDCNY may go to 8.0 with stupid money policy.
The DTWEXM trade weighted US dollar is showing the way soon.
Catatan
Source: yahoofinance.yahoo.com/news/options-market-suggests-china-edge-090009952.html
Catatan
Usually we don't pickup the knives from falling prices but hey, look at the TSL please, this one should close above 50 months SMA soon. Also HOGS should close above 10 months SMA, the automobile sector is undervalued from the US dollar stagflation.
Catatan
Interesting to see that many Japanese officers are saying the rising of consumer tax which equals to the Yen's hiking will act without delay on Oct. 2019, but prime minister Anbei is warning the credit might be risky. Or saying the weighted Yen strength which is dragging the market should be temporary. The forex market is a manipulation, please remember that. Major central banks could not act without permission of the G7 industry group. They do it by turns. There's no independent money policy among G7 where's the single market is working.
Catatan
Now the second vote risk off is coming, very boring, as predicted many months before. A second chance has been given and still quit with China top. Look, it's still at the bottom, right? With this kind of risk off, the core should be weak, for maintaining US dollar core inflation the currency will follow. This's saying the USDJPY can go higher slowly.
We don't know how long this will last, in 2019 the stock market should rise all year long. The trend might go to 2021 after the Tokyo Olympic Games, until BOJ hike cycle.
Please remember to catch knives in TSLA and HOG, last chance.
Catatan
Source: Daily FX South Korea finance minister HongNaJi: South Korea don't consider about the South Korean Won to re-evaluate.
Source: Bloomberg quoted forex operators
“Foreign investors are selling US dollar to push South Korea Won higher.”
This's hinted that USA asked South Korea if they would like to devaluate Won but South Korea denied.
The weakest Won may show us the way of DXY, it can go higher.
Catatan
Now the triangle could like this. The triangle always burst from the Apex line, if it goest to the edge, then it not a triangle or extended into 9 points. Also the RSI should like a triangle or it's not an one. Catatan
A technical truncation might happen on the DXY with a China hike. The news should look like the bank loan cut. The cut should narrow the Renminbi deposit interests and the loan interests to bring back positive interests back slowly.
The PBOC money policy has been in a sick way during the negative period, which is harming banking system for many years. The right thing to do is to recover the normal deferential between the deposit interests and the loan, after that is done, it should hike together. The deposit and the loan deferential keep steady and go higher together, with the core inflation.
The USA 10Y bonds yield should go to negative in the future, from our long term point of view.
Catatan
Italy is making France and Germany to change the EU rules from here.Catatan
To be very clear here, traders please 1, Do not buy gold, UK second vote is an huge risk off, good for stock markets.
2, The weighted Yen should be weak, US dollar for maintaining the core inflation should follow, it could be a little stronger than the Yen so UJ is up slowly.
3, There is no obvious short time correlation between gold and US dollar.
We're not teaching this but forex pros. should understand its value.
Catatan
Everything is fitting for our predictions, after we've checked up President Trump's visiting Japan, the macro situation should have enough of space for BOJ do more and should last as long as the market can rise. It could last longer than after the 2020 Trump second run is succeeded. Of course, before the China top comes. The Brexit second vote will be delayed for many months, risk off.
Chinese Yuan should be stronger since now, USDCNY should be back to 6.2 soon.
Catatan
Last call for BOJ and ECB to act or all down. Tanos is going down.Catatan
Thanos can go down negatively. It's backwards to 40 years ago. When speculators have given up or have piled up to something, the forex market is reaching an extreme and turning.
Catatan
Thanos' risk is very high, global stock markets can be tortured longer, it might have to force BOJ and ECB act if the dropping continues. Central banks usually very lagging, they're bureaucracy. Image if your action before the crashing and save it, who would like to thank you for your action? or if it doesn't't work, people are gonna blame you on that action, right? That's our crazy humanity part. Truth is boring. No one would like it.
"Ideals are peaceful, history is violent."
Please wait for the geopolitical signal clarity, then we go.
Catatan
It seems like that the BOJ has stepped in the forex market to stop the weighted Yen growth today. This month close in the Yen pairs might have been limited by the 2019 Janurary close. Good for global stock markets, need more waiting.Catatan
It's possible that the global core inflation, including all countries, are breaking the triangles or breaking the horizons. The US dollar midterm top is setting up. The gold pitch fork line is around 1400, multiple lines are pressing down the price there. The miners and the silvers are good here. With weighted Yen weakness, the global stock market should rise again but some sectors should've topped already like food sector. The core inflation in Japan is rising in this condition.
So everything looks like rising together, the idealism's dusk is coming.
In an extreme open fire condition, the VIX is rising with SPX500 too, believe it or not, this has happened before. Our followers should've understood that our analysis is flexible, we're open minded and we're doing very carefully with the charts.
Catatan
Emm... everything looks fits our predictions here, including the VIX rising with the SPX500. ( We don't trade the NPF, FYI) The ATRs of some currencies are at the lowest level in many decades, where're is the historical low, which is suppose to rise soon. This could bring some big waves, in cross pairs, the rising will be zoomed out and the dropping will be abysmal as well. The most interesting thing is that the negative in the Euro, it looks like the negative can turn Euro dollar into US dollar on the historical chart, in some cross pairs, the hedgings are huge.
We've observed good things, look at those 90's future generation of China very brave and bright...
Catatan
A little bit history here, since the 1949 new China had been founded, schools had taught Russian due to the ideology till 1970's... then it's turned. Think about it, the future, the olders and yourselves. The bet on and the cut loss, look it in a 100 years cycle, then you have something.
Catatan
The G20 meeting in Japan is a key to the market. OECD calculated 1% dropping from global economic growth during the trade war. Meanwhile Germany export and industry productivity situation is getting worse, by negative way, they're getting better.
Truth is boring, the forex market is a manipulation. It's an arrangement since 2008 until the 2015. The first central bank unreliable strike has happened from SNB shooting fire publicly. In 4 years, with global economic damages and the USA inflation top, without supporting from more hikes the final arrangement shall be on th way.
The weighted Yen and the Tokyo Olympic Games 2020.
Catatan
Source: fx street The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kuroda is on the wires now, via BBG TV interview, with the key comments found below.
"We have to strengthen stimulus if price momentum lost.Would mull ways to reduce side effects if extra action.Bank of Japan still has room for big stimulus.Japan’s economy does not need extra stimulus now."
Normally BOJ time window appears on October each year, it seems like China negative rising is still squeezing the US dollar higher here, until the July party's gifts.
The gold price is interesting to us that which neck line is being broken, after pitch fork upper edge reached, we should have a very big pull back. We're insisting on the 1400 is a fake break, it should go down again. We should've had the neck on an horizon but not like this one.
The market moves much more slowly than 2011, after we've counted the wave swings very carefully, there's another lower point has yet to come in the gold market.
Catatan
Again we're warming traders, do NOT short the stock market now...... The garbage bonds could rise with the weighted Yen weakness, like coins, China stocks, there's no guarantee that the gold price can reach 1400 after 6 months capital lagging since the last year hike has been paused already.
Technically speaking, many things are bottomed now.
Catatan
Source: yahoo "Chinese workers are protesting at a significant rate, despite government repression, research shows"
We've tired of talking about the PBOC money policy mistakes, by keeping saying this collapses for 4 years since 2015. The problem isn't the USA hike, the FRB ( FED) is doing well, the problem is not hike in 2015.
With 4 years beating, finally China is facing something seriously, from inside and outside.
Let's see how the market reacts here, we don't want to talk about it too much.
Catatan
Source: Yahoo"President Donald Trump aimed his latest criticism at the Federal Reserve on Friday, ahead of the central bank policy makers’ meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday, and said he predicted an eventual trade deal with China."
Everything fits well to our predictions, the trading conditions should be better but still administrated by USA, in every 3 months cycles.
Over 400 major USA companies asked President Trump to seize the trade war with China in a letter, Americans can't afford the inflation anymore, SPX500 can't afford the risk anymore. After the risk topped, stock market will turn to higher.
Yes, the trade war is paused here soon. The loser is very clear. A lesson has been taught but is this over? We have the answer but can't tell you now, maybe later. People really like dreams but not the truth, for us everything is simply beautiful but humanities are complex......
Catatan
This's a key month to the global stock markets, if we can close above the 10 month SMA then we might've a chance to go higher, or with having correlation of the US inflation top everything will crash quickly. Only BOJ action can save the markets now, after the Japanese peaceful delivery is failed in Iran, two oil transport ships attacked by sabotaging peace is fading away now. The peace can be forced, remember that? The new Emporor of Japan?
We understand that Japanese don't want a war before the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games which is gonna show Japan power on the world, or saying they're not ready for the weighted Yen rising and the Nikkei crashing here, they should have done it months before. Now the consequences are coming. Central banks are lagging, remember that? Crazy human being......
Catatan
We're warning traders to be careful with the FRB (Fed) meeting. The hike last Christmas may have been repealed, Chairman Powell has been challenged already, he might have to say something different. The US dollar could cut rates, which is an huge turning to the forex market.
Catatan
Everything looks fitting into our predictions now, be careful with the gold price, where has already been very near to the 1400 (1393.93) this morning Asia time. The BOJ is on the show today, fits the intervention of Yen and ECB should follow it soon. The stock markets last meals should have begun.
Catatan
The gold price target has been fulfilled now. The Norwegian Krone has raised deposit interests from 0.25% to 1.24%, which is good for the Krone healthy. Central bank who is hiking will gain a control of the currency. Who is doing QE will lose the inflation control quickly, again, the QE 2008 in USA has been proven a failure to control the inflation. Basically they let everything rise, which is using out the future of their children, one generation has been wasted.
If you don't respect history, history disrespect you too.
Catatan
The careful with the gold fever, we're suggesting traders to enjoy the last meal in the global stock markets, a dusk of idealism, the miners should be better and the silver.Catatan
If there's no hike in the Renminbi and the FRB (Fed) would not cut immediately, it's possible that an intervention is on the way. Trump may have to play card of Japan now, with the peace deal of US-China trade, the US treasury department is capable of making a dollar liquidity for following BOJ action to maintain USDJPY rising slowly. We still insist on that the gold price in US dollar should have another lower point.
Catatan
After we've checked the USDNOK chart, the extreme before 1985 square deal and the top before the 911, it's showing us something bad in USA could happen soon or the trade condition should be better from now. The US dollar devaluation is a compensation, it must be useful to Americans.
Catatan
Last warning for speculators of gold fever, the 1400 target has been reached, price is turning lower will be an impulse wave which is a 5 wave strong decline. For maintaining US inflation in USDJPY the DXY may follow it which is making it rise slowly. We don't trade correlations FYI, there's no short term correlation between the gold and the US dollar.
Catatan
Card of China has been playing beautifully by President Trump on G20 meeting, card of Japan will be played later, on the end of July. Double risk on mode in global stock markets and forex market should've begun as predicted before. Gold...... cool
Catatan
Source Bloomberg, from Citibank, " EEM market investors prefer high yield bonds, worries about USA depression."
Our point of view:
1; US bonds 10Y yields should go to 0% or negative soon, no matter FRB (Fed) cut or not, the yields in 2 years and 10 years have already dropped aggressively many months before. We don't believe central banks, but we believe the market.
2; EEM market most likely would go down first before the USA market, if there's a depression, believe it or not there will be the night after the idealism dusk.
3; it's wrong to buy the gold top now, the global stock markets are breaking to historical highs with head shoulders patterns, and Yen weakness.
Catatan
Source: FXCM, ING, “These are confusing times for the eurozone. With divergences between GDP and survey data and an ECB on the brink of taking action, it is all the more important to look at hard data coming in. May’s retail sales will therefore be taken as an important indication that consumption growth has slowed significantly in the second quarter.”
“As the industrial slump in the eurozone continues, it’s the service sector that's keeping GDP from contracting at the moment.”
“With so much dovishness in recent speeches, it is clear that the ECB is ready to act if necessary. With 2Q weakness in the retail sector, the importance of industrial performance only rises. Next week will see May’s industrial production figures for the eurozone. If very disappointing, that could sway the central bank to go early.”
Congratulations ECB, your consumer confidence is rising negativity, this's our joke of course.
Without money policy supporting, the service sector data is showing that the consumers are using their bank saving to spend, after several months spendings by lagging from ECB people are getting poorer and poor. So this's basically what is happening in EU zone after Chinese poverty is predicted successfully.
Catatan
The deep diving vessel accident of a Russian strategy nuclear missiles carrier submarine almost triggered the judgment day situation. The highest risk condition was met. There's some strange things happened in the White House too. After we've done a risk analysis, it seems like Trump has the box and Vice President has the Bible, it's vefy strange to call back Air Force 2. We usually have the Air Force 1 on air with President Trump. This back ground story has enough secrets to make a movie.
We cut a lots of information here, they're too sensitive.
So the gold bounce has limited by the highest risk.
Catatan
Source: fx street, FXCM, The central banks bought 700 tonnes of gold in the first five months of 2019, up 73 per cent year-on-year, according to Citi. With Turkey, kazakhstan, China and Russia the biggest sovereign buyers.
Please don't follow those central banks, they usually hold assets for many years. For those above banks they may have predicted US dollar weakness but they may not have enough of analysis to understand the midterm inflation top has been set.
Speculation sentiments are piling into buying gold, saying 1500 and 2000 US dollar per Onz, This's typically a meat on the table for FRB( Fed).
Catatan
The market is waiting for Powell testimony, we're watching at the Sterling's crashing. The question is how politically is wrong with the US dollar, who is hurting the U.K. economic and British confidence, as a friendly currency? President Trump has Twitted that the FRB (Fed) don't know what they are doing, reminds them to repeal last year's hike, he's talking about the political right.
Central banks are still thinking they're independent, that thought is wrong.
Catatan
Catatan
Sterling is recovering slowly after testimony. Powell mentioned the trade war, Brexit risks, said Thanos mistake would effect USA, warned the core inflation could be weaker than expected.
The CME is showing 0.25% cut with 73.9% possibility now.
Our point of view is that:
1; cut 0.25% for sure, but the real cut maybe an huge one, depends on the market.
2; the hike ended by gold rising cut should be opposite.
3; US dollar may follow the inflation to maintain the USDJPY rising slowly.
4; EEM market and global stock market should rise till the end.
5; trade condition should be better, Brexit second vote.
Several weeks later the market should rise again.
Catatan
The difficult days were past in Sterling. Scotland will prevent UK from no deal quit. It would be delayed as long as it could, then the second vote after the Thanos market collapsing. They still quit. Focus on the strong side, all across the forex market pairs.
Catatan
The risk is the Japan- Korea crisis now. Let's see if USA can make them obey, in one week. We bias the gold short, BTW. The USA has made an very bad example for those followers. Japs are learning fast, right?
Catatan
Sterling strong, no panic here, it's undervalued.Catatan
The Japan foreign minister and Korea foreign minister will hold a meeting under the USA's force, a "forced peace" of course, after the Japan made a digital free trade deal with USA. Japs are always on to something, they're not stupid like Thanos, right? So everything is going well, our followers should understand the value of our analysis especially top authors on TV...
Catatan
Cut as predicted but too late, it's a big cut for the stock markets topping cycle, the final meal. We've biased the gold short already and guess what, the US dollar can follow it as long as the stock market rising. We do NOT trade the correlations. Traders should use technical ways to trade forex market, there's no obvious correlation between the gold price and US dollar in a short term cycle.
Catatan
The two houses have delivered a forex rates control law before the FRB (Fed) decision which is telling us the central bank has lost it's power here. Be careful traders, the interventions are on the way, the BOJ's warning and pushing the DXY breaking to fake higher. The US dollar should follow it but the UJ should go higher slowly for trade purpose.
Catatan
The forex market is a manipulation. We have to remind naive traders now. For very long term cycles, it has a function of currency stability. When the extreme condition comes it's always turned, which hasn't come yet.
Catatan
Interventions among BOJ, FRB( Fed), Thailand, Korea, Indonesia, RBNZ, are on the way. More central banks will follow them soon. The stock markets are collapsing, the extreme conditions become true. The BOJ is the key, they will do it by G7 industrial countries rules. The USA should follow it by the US dollar rates control which we've mentioned before where has just passed to White House to make it a law, but a little stronger for trade purpose. Which should let UJ rise slowly.
Catatan
After checked out some charts by using time based fib cycle, with traditional BOJ time windows Oct. the actions may be delayed 3 months to Nov. 2019. Within 3 months, the market could be tortured. Nothing to say here, central banks always late, they do not act before the crisis even they know it would happen.
This's a philosophy question and an humanity dark side, of course the negative side.
Catatan
We know that technical nerds are drawing 5 waves, but what if you are wrong about this chart? The oral intervention could make the fifth wave lower than the last third wave, believe it not, this's just a technical chart not a signal. Catatan
The Sterling is almost there, about 50 pips away by looking at some cross pairs. The Pound has an habit which it's strong all cross the market so this is it. The DXY couldn't close above the pitch fork line upper edge, although it has broken the line in this week. More down is coming in the US dollar, traders should look for your country's currency to find a way to protect the assets, if you're holding too much of the US dollar. Capital should flow into EEM market sooner or later.
Catatan
What would happen in the USA or in the EU zone? Something huge... FYI we persist in the gold short, the US dollar should follow it to maintain the core inflation target.
We're here in long term point of view.
The weekly zooming here.
Daily's view here.
Catatan
We are warning the gold fevers again, in a midterm cycle, it may have topped. The Chinese Yuan devaluation cycle is ending now, since 2013 Dec. to 2019 Aug. this cycle has lasted for (2018+12+ 8) - (2013+ 12) = 5 years + 8 months = 12*5+ 8= 68 months. It's not a 60 months cycle because of last years struggle in the US- China trade war. It should have been ended 8 months before, or could be early if Thanos has more wise than his little smarter.
Catatan
The news is that the US-China trade negotiation team has made a call today, we don't know what they've talked about but we've seen the cycle is ending here. It seems like that the Thanos can't afford the inflation higher anymore. Please focus on the capital flow into EEM market now, it will be squeezed later.
Catatan
Sterling is shining soon, it will hurt the DXY in the weighted combination. The EURGBP should correct here. The Australia dollar should rise to against the core inflation in Australia soon, we suggest traders paying attention to those undervalued currencies in forex market. In some countries people should buy back your own currencies until the stock market topping cycle is over in many months.
Catatan
Source: fix street."In an interview with Fox Business Network, White House adviser Navarro said that the biggest problem the United States was facing was the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Navarro further argued that falling Treasury bond yields were another sign that the Fed should lower interest rates."
If this fighting is won by President Trump, the FRB may lose the independence. This winning explains the future interventions.
Catatan
The ECB may have to announce a real QE in September, at the same time to cancel the negative interests. Wait a minute but is that the negative has the QE already? The answer is NO. The ECB and central banks are cheating your people, and they still do, like RBA does.
Please remember that the negative is a tightening, which has gone far too wrong way, where has no returning without the global economic crisis.
Ti be clear, we're NOT in the crisis, yet... it will happen after 2020. If we can access the internet, we will inform traders before that happens.
Catatan
Today Germany central bank has admitted that the economic is facing a risk of recession. If they could roll the time cycle back into 2015, they may have regretted that the negative interests already.
We disagree the negative interests since 2015 and after 4 years they admitted it...... everything is too late now, in the past 4 years people's hearts can change into hatred and soft wars have begun, populism ghost are spreading all over around the world. President Trump's Twitter used far too late, indeed.
Catatan
Source: Bloomberg "USA consumer confidence dropped into 6 years low."
The DXY is forming harmonic patterns against Australia dollar here.
Traders, be careful, the predicted interventions are on the way. Meanwhile US-China trading deal is expected for a good solution and the Brexit will be clear on Oct. All risks are fading away soon.
Catatan
Today's condition is showing DXY has more upside to the full target 100- 102. The truncation may have been avoided already. Also the China market is still helping USA for good. Again we are taking profits from the gold market and turning into looking at the stock markets here, the miners should catch up with the price of metals, by sold the price lower.
Catatan
By using "fight for" the core inflation but not using "fight to" it, it is saying, the core inflation would drop about 30% at last. For "maintaining" that uneasily fulfilled target here today, the measuring currency should go weaker to follow the core one. So eventually, major country currencies are still weakening 30%, resulted in helping stock market rise more into ridiculous highs until the China collapse at first.
Catatan
Source: FX street, "We are going to act as appropriate to maintain the expansion," Powell said.
See? the word "maintain", right?
We hope our followers can understand that our point of view is at a very advanced level.
Catatan
Not high enough? Be careful guys, President Trump's Twitter is always followed closely, the US-China trade deal should have a solution soon. Catatan
There's an harmonic bottom is building in the EU, where's the DXY maybe topped here, check out those smaller time frame charts.Catatan
We suggest traders to buy EU against DXY here, US-Japan trade deal and US-China trade deal have been done now. Looking forward to a good old days. All risks should be on the stock market rising soon. We maybe too optimistic in 2017- 2018, now we are too pessimistic.
Catatan
After the previous lowest point has been taken in the EU, the DXY may go to 100.15 where is the full target, just as the same as 2015 high point. We haven't seen the Oz. dollar closed above 10 months SMA yet, but the pair hold the lowest rates, meanwhile the Sterling holds the lowest rates too.
The gold fever ended by breaking 1493 with double top, just like predicted before.
The core inflation in the Australia dollar and Sterling may have been topped in midterm cycles, which are monthly cycles.
Again we're going to look for the stock markets for more opportunities, until the China collapse first, it's not rising yet right?
Catatan
The Germany industry data and consumer confidence dropped to the lowest point today, where's the lowest since 2013. We talked about ECB negative mistakes since 2015, but yesterday Chancellor Merkel still said politicians shouldn't interfere central bank's money policy. This's clearly a political philosophy mistake.
This is very very disappointed, culturally speaking, German lack of action may not end well. We now believe the EU zone may be the next crisis breaking point but not in the USA, the USA as a new world has shown the bright future already.
Catatan
USA is punishing EU aircraft exports and food exports with higher tariffs here, good move, this punishment should have happened 4 years before. If China hasn't come between the cross fire, it's very stupid. As our followers can see, we've predicted a lot of things successfully, carry on.
Catatan
It looks like the Tax cut is losing the steam, for "maintaining" the core inflation, US dollar may have to follow it. The forex market is a manipulation, central banks do it wrongly since 2015 ECB negative, the worst part is that they're lying to the people for cheating Thanos to be a compensation.
It's ending soon......
Catatan
For the Brexit, the U.K and the EU are pushing each other to an extreme level today. This's a very common fighting condition before the deal is made. Again, because we don't think the market will go down before the Tokyo Olympic Games 2020 summer. The BOJ has always been ready for the action now, they can use an excuse of consumer Tax raise failure or something like that, just to devaluate weighted Yen for all good.
The USA stock market will rise in 12 months, at least before the Trump Winnings, everything is ok.
Catatan
The Brexit will be delayed as long as possible, it's maybe delayed by 5 years, depends on how long the China market can last.Catatan
Source: daily FX "ECB member Holtzman the negative interest rate of the ECB is a risk to insurance companies and pension funds. Negative interest rates are the wrong thing to do. We need to check monetary policy in the past 10 years."
Seriously, now? After we disagree the negative policy 5 years? Too late.....
In the past 10 years USA people have been changed, in the past 5 years Chinese people have been changed too, soft wars are spreading around the world and people have become to hatred, the "generation struggles" are everywhere. Thanks to the uncharted money policy which is destroying mathmaticlal model of commodity price, human civilization is pulling back every year. History must be respected but they don't.
The truth is, they don't care.
Who cares right? "as long as traders are trading" right? Now the consequence is showing.
Be careful traders, the forex market is at the extreme condition now, something is gonna move aggressively. The non-US dollar currencies may hike together soon, especially those commodity currencies.
Catatan
After the FRB(Fed) have cut the rates 3 times in a row, the lagging capital, which is meaning the cash has been deposit in commercial banks should flow into stock market now. The core inflation may be "maintained" but we doubt that can last long. In a risk on mode, the inflation should go weaker together with weighted Yen.Catatan
Again we long the stock market from 2019 into 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games. It's very stupid to call the top of any stock market now, including HongKong or any of EEM market like India, Russia, Thailand and so on.
The global markets are sharing the risk on mode together, they're correlated by the lagging capital flow.
Catatan
We have observed western people publicly against traffic rules by riding bikes in China, also we have seen foreigners publicly talked loudly and laughed at children in China too. These bad behaviors are signals for us to show the extreme market conditions have come. It was in 2001, the 911 happened day, where we had seen those muslims publicly against traffic rules by riding bikes in China.
So the speculators are typically wrong, they're very late, right?
Catatan
Source: Daily FX, The news finally comes out that the Japan Prime Minister Anbei has ordered Japan treasure department to make a 15 months plan for rebuilding and helping economic but the amount of the plan hasn't been decided yet.
This fits our predictions before, in fact it's very late already, the normal BOJ money policy window is on Oct. and they act on Nov.
Because the TV removed date from updates, we're moving update to comments now.
Catatan
2019/11/09 Beijing time 3:45 We've decided to keep our old way of updating comments here, by adding the timeline on each update. Yes, we're fighting for the standard, from here we say no to the nonsense innovations which are destroying our all human history.
You see? the innovation wants you stupid more and more, by removing all complexity from your humanities, they treat you like animals, but we will never do that to our followers.
"the simple the better? or the simple the stupid(er)." - Victor.Y.F
Catatan
2019/11/09 Beijing time 4:00 below is a copy from reply.
"Source: Daily FX,
The news finally comes out that the Japan Prime Minister Anbei has ordered Japan treasure department to make a 15 months plan for rebuilding and helping economic but the amount of the plan hasn't been decided yet.
This fits our predictions before, in fact it's very late already, the normal BOJ money policy window is on Oct. and they usually act on Nov.
Something out of markets:
In a negative period, everything lost its standard, the TV removed timeline without any warning. We don't know why, the question is do they know why? or they just change all standard carelessly. it's been 5 years we post articles on TV, our followers should've known the value of the macro analysis, although nowadays most analysts have no enough of the education and have no knowledge to do it well. The education system has been ruined for many years, people have lost the culture continuity already, this's forming a whole new generations struggles just like the classes struggles 100 years ago.
If you don't understand what we're talking about, please watch the Netflix show "the Kominsky method", you will find the way there.
"So what is the acting?"
Our point of view, the acting is a kind of sympathy.
1; It's a very deep and complicated culture form.
2; It can be an emotion copy from the true life, the more experience in your true life the more your acting is better. (could be worse too)
3; It can be a simulation too, a fake condition but very like to a real one.
Reply
Victor.Y.F 8 hours ago
Just after our last posting, the ECB release a news, said by an ECB member Vasle that: "ECB decided to continue the maintenant money policy."
This fits our predictions before, Euro has no more room to do it here, it's because the RMB and US dollar is too high now. The BOJ is the only central bank in G7 has the room and the condition to do it, because the weighted Yen is in the middle where will do lower to form a 5th. wave underway but may not have a lower than the lowest point in 2014.
The 15 months has covered the Tokyo and the Trump second run already, the April meeting next year of G7 will make an arrangement for the next 3 years util U.K Brexit is done, of course a second vote."
Catatan
2019/11/11 Beijing time 15:55 Source: Yahoo
"Hong Kong's Hang Seng index led the losses in Asia, down more than 2%, after police fired live rounds at protestors on the eastern side of Hong Kong island. Cable TV and other Hong Kong media reported at least one protester being wounded. Video footage showed a protester lying in a pool of blood. "
The Hong Kong society suiciding is settling down, too late and too much adolescent spoiling. When those things are put down, the risk is on.
Again we are looking forward to see the stock market rise to ridiculous high.
Catatan
Comment: 2019/11/14 Beijing time 9:50 We've checked Yen correlated cross pairs, it looks like since 2018 Dec. the Japanese Yen has been too strong for 12 months. Considering the 15 months plan, the BOJ shall act on Dec. 2019 to weaken it.
It will be a quickly fall, it could end the weakness before the summer 2020, maybe last longer but apparently we are buying the stock again.
Catatan
2019/11/15 Beijing time 14:01 Source: FX street,
"South Korean defense minister: South Korea and the United States will continue their intelligence cooperation with Japan."
This's fitting our risk on prediction.
Our analysis is:
Till this year end, the cooperation of Intelligence sharing between the us and South Korea will be expired, USA and Korea should've extended it. But the Japanese have attacked Korea with electric parts embargo by trading control, the Korean have taken it as an attack to prevent the growth of their economy. Korean have decided to cut the sharing.
The geopolitic situation in east Asia is very complex, usually the USA plays a key role between Korea and Japan. But after USA pull back to second islands ring, there's a empty space needs to be filled, geographically and militarily. China should've played it but it looks like China has gone wrong ways in many fields. So Japan is taking the free meal now, this's why Korean have to make decision.
Catatan
2019/11/15 Beijing time 14:25 We've never said we're always right, we've made several technical mistakes. In a bigger picture, most of our predictions are catching up the train of forex market, some of them are advanced before the market. Our followers should've known that already. The prediction to rig Hong Kong was in 2017, now it's fulfilled and it's ending so we can speak.
Catatan
2019/11/15 Beijing time 23:03 Source: daily FX,
'White House economic adviser: the first phase of trade agreement negotiations is in its final stages."
So this it, Trump is playing wildcard now or never, he doesn't want to lose the second run next year. The investigation is a must but it won't work, as long as the trade condition bundle with him, he will get what he wants.
The thing is that giving China a second chance, giving Brexit a second vote, giving Trump a second run, they're correlated.
Catatan
2019/11/19 Beijing time 16:38 After Kissinger's speech at US-China relationship club, he warned Trump the consequences of US-China trade war, it looks like our prediction is fulfilled again.
The risk on mode may have to wait for Christmas but now the possibility is getting bigger.
The AAPL and TSLA have extended higher as predicted before, but the HOG is still follow the Australia dollar, a same close above 10 months SMA is carefully being watched here.
Morgan Stanley is looking for more US dollar devaluation in next year here, a little late, right?
Catatan
2019/11/22 Beijing time 15:55 HOG and AU are correlated, the HOG is pulling back 10 months SMA here but AUDUSD couldn't break trough it, yet.
We suggest traders to look for more opportunities in auto stocks, with GM motor strike, the USA trade condition has done enough of harms to the blue collars now. The HOG drop has last for 5 years and now to the 6th year, shameful. Blue collars may have regretted to support Trump already, but Trump still has his time to correct it. We remembering our Japanese analyst's saying here, "the forex market always go to the extreme condition." The drop may be ended soon, but the trade deal may have to wait next year.
When it's getting personal, nothing is gonna go well.
Catatan
2019/11/22 Beijing time 16:19 Catatan
2019/11/22 Beijing time 18:59 Source: FXCM,
"According to yon-hap, South Korea told Japan they wouldn't cut the intelligence sharing, for now." The conflict is holding here, with "forced peace", by whom? The USA.
We've analyzed the new Japan regime name before, it's meaning a forced peace, just like 100 years ago a "peace dead" led to the WWII and the atom bomb in Japan. If They rise again guess who's the first and who's the second?
FYI, Japan has announced building 65,000 ton class carrier already, they've abandoned the peace constitution to reclaim defense rights now.
It will get worse in east Asia geopolitic situation but it will be soft.
Everything goes soft due to human being is weakening, human civilization is fading by negative growth. This is what we're seeing but not feeling, we see the market is an object as our followers should have understood that already.
Everything is too late now, ECB is wiping the ass and abandoning the ships, with "replacing old loans by lower interests loan".
That is the funniest thing we've ever heard, who will repay the lower loan?
Catatan
2019/11/22 Beijing time 23:42 Source: FXCM,
"It's very near to have a deal with China." says Trump.
We're more concerned about the RMB rates now, with a deal made, USDCNY should have a tight pegging. But the PBOC may not follow up. If we look back the same situation in 2008, the USDCNY is pegged after the QE.
It's more looks like the rates will go down and squeeze again.
Catatan
2019/11/28 Beijing time 18:58 Source: FXCM,
"Deutsche bank sold assets with a book value of about 50bn to Goldman sachs, November 27, 2019."
See? "ECB is wiping the ass and abandoning the ships" right?
Many reporters are saying:
"The U.S. President Donald Trump signed legislation in support of Hong Kong protestors. " the stock market is falling after that.
Interesting, but we din't think so.
Traders should've known that the USA is in a culture revolution movement, now the divide is deepening. The Democracy party intends to sabotage the US-China trade deal which is a wild card of the most matters to Trump's second run, remember the second chance to China and the correlations?
The trade deal may happen earlier now, with an extreme speculator sentiment, before the Christmas.
Catatan
2019/11/28 Beijing time 19:15 This is what we're looking at.
The news is " an Asia central bank wants a model of QE from RBA." See? the RBA is lying, the Australia QE is over soon, guess who is asking the RBA?
Catatan
2019/12/05 Beijing time 17:24 ( we insist on using timeline despite TV recover it or not. The software problem is a huge mistake since Microsoft. The software is NOT a science but an one of humanities) Something about the China stock market, it's a garbage bonds market running like commodity supply. In a long term point of view, it's a bear market due to RMB is a bull. The properties may not change until the RMB join in the forex market for forming a G8 group exchange structure to lose its independence.
Because on the TV the data is limited, so we've pulled out a typical electrical stock from domestic trading platform and we've checked its full history dada in SZSE market. By using the bear market theory above, it looks like since 1992 the first dropping wave has been bottomed in 1995, lasted 3 years. Then since 1995, following with a complex 7 wave corrections has been ended in2015, lasted 10 years. ( with a bear market theory, the 2007 top and the 2015 top are two correction waves) There is a second dropping wave since 2015 to 2019, if it is ending, then it has lasted more than 4 years which should've been ended in 2018.
Be careful to choose the right sectors in China stock market is very important. There're sectors are getting topped here.
We may have a small bull wave( a new correction wave fits the Tokyo Olympic Games and Japan 25Trillion plan announced today), like the one in 1996, which is only lasted for 7 months. What's happened in PBOC in1996 is to cut deposit rates from 10% to 2.25% till the year 2002. It may look like the PBOC cut loan interests from 10% to 2.25% for narrowing the deposit difference.
Catatan
2019/12/05 Beijing time 17:45 Source: daily FX,
"Japan announced 26Trillion plan today, including 13Trillion financial plan."
Fits our prediction, right? A traditional time window and action on November, and covering the Tokyo too. They have to do it now because the SPX500 still wants to go up, It may reach 3700 with helping the Trump's second service we've predicted 3 yeas before, a 20% growth again. Turns out last week's low point is the best buy.
Catatan
2019/12/06 Beijing time 14:28 Source: FXCM, Reuters, twitter,
"Nancy pelosi: the house of representatives will draft a bill to impeach trump."
"Jared Kushner, Trump's son in law, takes bigger role in China trade talks."
"Trump doesn't mind to sign a deal after his second won in next year."
Our analysis is, there'll be no signature but let it trade, as long as Trump bundles with China talks he will get what he wants.
Trump now is more focusing on the impeachment, Kushner got full trust by him, as a dove the trade talks should be better. In fact, the first deal should be done before the Christmas.
Again, we don't trade NFP, the data is only for a scalping trade. We're scalping too, but in a different way.
Catatan
Happy new year 2020! The phase 1 US-China deal signs on 15th. Jan. before that happens, the market should be very volatile for trading. We don't trade during the first several weeks in a new year, until everything is settled down.
Catatan
The time line 2020/1/1 Beijing time 15:56, we don't use TV time line any more.Catatan
2020/02/12 Beijing time 16:00 The fake plague, east Asia patient, dead cat bounce, market squeeze, Trump's second term.
First of all, the influence cycles. Here we're showing you 2 links from CDC and Bloomberg
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/4/05-0695-f2
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-09/flu-caused-1-in-10-american-deaths-last-week
Apparently the fake plague is a normal winter influence which has its cycle of the death peak line. That's all we want to talk about the purge......
The weather is changing in China, since 2018 to 2019, there're too much rains (because our solar panels has worked poorly in 2 years) and the inner Mongolia is too dry for cattle, farmers have to buy grass to feed them. It looks like the warm period is ending with the El Nino phenomenon. The cooler winters ahead should bring the oil and the energy market rising soon, energy inflation is coming.
Now, let's do a correlation check, the China market crash 2015, the capital squeeze, Trump's winning 2016, there're correlated. For him, the USA people have a very high standard which the best employment data can't guarantee his second term, so this is simple to see. Trump can not win without China market collapse again. The problem here is that China market is still in the bottom, how Trump could win the second run within 10 months? There're some possibilities here:
1; If the fake plague is over, somewhere the price will surge. After 2003 Beijing SARS, the price of local residential rising quickly, if this time the government controls the price of residential, then more likely the stock market or bunds market or the inflation should rise rapidly. "a dead cat bounce" should come with a rising of the optimistic sentiments.
2; if the stock market rises then it'll crash before the Oct. then the squeezing, then Trump should win his second term, or he can't win.
3; if China market has no "dead cat bounce", Trump may have to use extreme method for his winning, a hint, Iran willing to pay an huge amount of money for his head. So why not play "an hero" with using populist people blindness by social media madness, just like Taiwan did before?
4; We''re not trying to be ass hole, also not trying to be hero now. A lot of analysis can't be spoken, even on TV.
Catatan
2020/02/15 Beijing time 13:33 The DXY can go higher and can go lower here, with China capital fleeing, US dollar has broken the monthly trend line also multiple long term pitch fork lines have been breached. But please be careful with the EURUSD. Especially EURSEK and EURNOK are on the all time high already. Those cross pairs are showing the US dollar weakness ahead. In fact, the FRB(Fed ) may do a new QE if the data is going south.
It seems like after the fake plague, China government will allow the housing accumulation fund to be released for stimulating the dead cat bounce. The last breath before a total collapsing is coming... fits our prediction.
The poverty is a living style, the pessimism is a mental disease, some people some where they're born to carry these problem which is called "unfortunate". That is too old to evolute.
Catatan
2020/02/16 Beijing time 16:40 We're living in a all risk world and everyday, everywhere people are taking huge risks for real. Even eating can choke to death, usually we have 3 meals a day. Not avoid the risk, but to trade it, right? Our followers should've known what we're talking about.
Think about the amount of the GDP has been lost in last month , what an huge fortune. Think about the risk, that is such low. Just because few people may or may not have a normal influence, it doesn't mean the whole country can stop running. OMG...... is that a modern country?
We're really doubting about it now. Watching the people that they're doing, misleading by social media, human rights taken, grounded by stupid order, force used by "chengguan" and so on, such many crazy things.
The quality of a country is decided by the quality of the people.
We're taking this incident as a very rare opportunity to see what is the level of past 70 years education. Let's see where they're going.
Catatan
2020/02/19 Beijing time 17:50 Traders should learn what is an investment and what is a speculation. Previously, on TSLA. Last year May the 21st. We said "Please remember to catch knives in TSLA and HOG, last chance." Now, we're taking profits and speculators are eating hooks.
HOG still has many potentials. Buy now or never.
DB is forming an huge round bottom with EU zone banks revolution. Please wait for the higher low.
The China stock market negative dropping is coming, which means a quickly rising and falling, "the dead cat bounce".
Catatan
2020/02/21 Beijing time 11:40 We focus on the G7 industry group meeting for the BOJ action permission. The fake plague has affected Japan, because the Tokyo Olympic games is very important for them, they eager to do it only need an excuse.
We're not saying this isn't an cold influence disease, it is. But a predictable normal cycle with very high observed death reports among old people those who have major disease history. Obviously natural, the God rules, humanity shouldn't have played God. Right?
On the DXY, can go higher and lower here a choice, the USA will decide to help Chinese people or let them down. This fate will be decided in G7 group meeting.
Catatan
The new QE has begun already point of view, but this one without holding US bonds from China. Catatan
2020/02/24 Beijing time 17:40Equities are dropping hard today, with risk off mode, the gold is recovering with more damages in the global supply chain from east Asia patient.
The gold price shall rise more until BOJ action permission by G7 meeting, where we've mentioned before. Stock markets will drop more until weighted Yen will be weakened. Central banks are acting too late, BOJ should've act on Oct. 2019. Those central banks problems are very seriously, because money policy should've advanced to the inflation, but they're too late.
If you look at the USA hike in 2015, the XAUUSD rises after the huge hike, then that hike led to the lowest unemployment ever in the USA history, till today.
Which is, of course, the right thing to do.
Catatan
2020/03/04 Beijing time 17:49 Everything fits our predictions after FRB( Fed) cut 0.5% for coronavirus emergency, the DXY may be truncated at the 6th. wave from manipulation, but the 102.00 target still can be reached technically.
Watch out China market and OZ. dollar correlated forex market, capital may squeezing back into EEM market soon.
Catatan
2020/03/04 Beijing time 19:33 Since Dec.19.2016, this DXY analysis moving forward to the 4th. article slowly. We have a new publishing on DXY, please look at the article "All about the fake plague ".
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