Long term strength of US dollar to remain

22 Okt 2019

Falling interest rates may not have a significant effect on weakening dollar strength because foreign purchase of US treasuries only make up a smallish entry in the dollar trade balance. Other stronger forces have been taking action on the dollar over the last 8 years. Growing oil production and green initiatives such as hybrid and electric vehicles and solar continue to add strength to the dollar as less energy imports are necessary. As can be seen on the chart, the dollar strength has gained ever since US oil production started to ramp up which has acted as a huge dollar strength over the last 8 years. Goods imports from China may grow much less as improving robotics efficiencies may start to replace the production line worker for much smaller products and encourage in country production in the near future. Overall green and factory disruptive solutions will be powered by advanced nations with the capability to invest and absorb the social impacts of change. Longer term I expect the US dollar will continue to dominate as the defacto world currency and continue to rise.