DXY Bearish Orderflow into Sellside Liquidity

19 Jun 2023

If DXY goes Lower, Foreign Currencies, Stocks, Commodities, and other asset classes will Rise.

Price is coming off of a Bearish Orderblock. That should push price lower.
As price entered the Bearish OB, we had a 3-stage consolidation run into it (MMSM). To complete the model, price needs to drop down below the original consolidation (the blue shaded box above "Sellside Liquidity").

The Sellside Liquidity contains of two equal lows. Lots of orders are placed around this area, and the market will look to seek down into them to manipulate positions that are resting here.
Therefore, I'm looking for a run down to them and through them.



As of where DXY is currently, it is in Bearish Orderflow.
Every Premium PD Array is being respected to the downside as every Discount PD Array is being disrespected.

Price is currently testing C.E. (Consequent Encroachment) of the daily SIBI FVG + Inversion Orderblock. We could trade lower from here...

I will allow for price to trade higher into the purple box (BPR) as this area should act as strong resistance, and price should not exceed through it.
If price closes above the BPR at 103.380, that would be an invalidation of this idea, and price should go higher instead. But as long as we remain below it, I'm bearish down into Sellside Liquidity.



If price accelerates through my Target, then my next target is the Monthly BISI FVG Low:

20 Jun 2023

Catatan

Price has traded into the Balanced Price Range ✅

Again, I do Not want to see price close Above the BPR at 103.380, as that would indicate higher prices, but as of where price is at now, I’d like to see the BPR act as resistance to send it lower into the Sellside Liquidity.

21 Jun 2023

Catatan

The BPR is being respected nicely as resistance, within the FVG

24 Jun 2023

Catatan

Price traded up into the Daily V.I. which was marked up.

On H4 TF - See how the Bodies of the candles are respecting the V.I. in the picture below...

The Bodies Highs were formed 103.000 at Institutional Number + V.I. High. If H4 ever closes above that 103.000, I think that will be problematic for shorts, as price may be sent higher instead.

So as of where the market is at now, I prefer to see the price stay closed below 103.000. If that gets breached, then I will stay on the sidelines with my bias.

25 Jun 2023

Catatan

Update:
The Weekly Candle has Closed, and we have now created a Weekly FVG (SIBI).
Price may trade up into it to Rebalance it...

2 Jul 2023

Catatan

Update:



Weekly Timeframe:

(Refer to my previous post from June 25th).
Price traded up into the Weekly FVG that I mentioned.

Once it traded up in there, it created and rejected beautifully in line with the bearish orderflow that I am looking for in the bearish bias.

Chart Reference:




Daily Timeframe:

(Refer to the main analysis)

I said that I wanted to see the BPR act as Strong Resistance. I also said that price can trade up into it, but price CAN'T close above the BPR at 103.380.

In the picture below, you can see that price did not close above the BPR, as the BPR-High is a very sensitive point in price.


Chart Reference:

23 Jul 2023

Catatan

TARGET REACHED... Again.


In the previous update above, I mentioned that price was currently failing to close above the BPR. That validated shorts.

As the added screenshot below shows, price rejected the BPR once more. Price was unable to close above. These are the "real" Support and Resistance levels in the market that few know about.

Price then quickly dropped lower into the SSL and down into my "Target", given in the main analysis above.

Hope someone else capitalized on the move!

24 Jul 2023

Catatan

DXY Daily Timeframe:

After price swept the SSL, it's expected to move higher to manipulate Support and Resistance traders.

We might trade up into Premium of the current Dealing Range in the upcoming days. There is a Volume Imbalance that I'm looking at, which lines up with premium, so I would like to see price draw up into that.

Reference:

26 Jul 2023

Catatan

In the previous update above, I mentioned that the Volume Imbalance + Premium of the Dealing Range would be an attractive level for price to draw up to...

Price traded right up in there, and rejected nicely (see the picture below for reference)

Been calling DXY up and down multiple times in this post. Playing ping pong with it. Hope somebody capitalized! :)

Reference to the Volume Imbalance:

26 Jul 2023

Catatan

Lastly, scroll up to my update from 25th June. I mentioned that price may trade up into the Weekly FVG to rebalance it to the downside, and that's exactly what happened. The FVG sent price lower into the SSL.

Reference: