Fear Indicators vs. Facts & Figures
Diupdate
In the last days and weeks overall fear indicators showing that bets and fears on a shortime drop of global stockmarkets had been rising dramatically.
The main reasons - and all are geopolitics:
- Trumps tradewars on China, NAFTA, Europe
- Geopolitical tensions on Syria, North Korea, Russia
- Upcomming First round of election in France
What traders missed: Stockmarkets "underlying" - Global economic Data. This data and upcomming earnings still comming in above expectations. In the next tradingdays better than expected economic data will meet fears wich might be much overdone. Once more.
The main reasons - and all are geopolitics:
- Trumps tradewars on China, NAFTA, Europe
- Geopolitical tensions on Syria, North Korea, Russia
- Upcomming First round of election in France
What traders missed: Stockmarkets "underlying" - Global economic Data. This data and upcomming earnings still comming in above expectations. In the next tradingdays better than expected economic data will meet fears wich might be much overdone. Once more.
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APR 17 2017 U.S. stocks shrug off global tensions and eye M&Ainvesting.com/news/stock-market-news/u.s.-stocks-shrug-off-global-tensions-and-eye-m-a-474690
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Comment: APR 17 2017 Wall Street gains as focus shifts to earningsinvesting.com/news/stock-market-news/futures-dip-on-soft-u.s.-data,-geopolitical-risks-474631
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APR 17 2017 - China has more options to press North Korea than people think, says former CIA China analystChina has more options to press North Korea than people think, says former CIA China analyst
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APR 17 2017 - Brazil's economy grew at its fastest pace since 2010 and its stocks are flying highCatatan
Open this chart to follow up if fears might fading in the next tradingdays:
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APR 13 2017 Poll: Macron taking the Lead, LePen drops to the lowest level since 18 month.23,5% Macron
22,5% LePen
20,0% Fillon
18,5% Melenchon
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APR 14 2017: Marine LePen losing more voters23% Macron
22% LePen
20% Fillon
20% Melechon
The French elction now is unpredictable.
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APR 14 2017: French presidential race tightens further as vote loomsSource: reuters.com/article/us-france-election-idUSKBN17G0Q2
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APR 17 2017: Election is getting more and more unpredictableOpinion Way polls:
22% Macron
22% LePen
21% Fillon
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APR 17 2017 - "Le Terrian" poll first time showing LePen only 3rd.24% Macron
22% Melenchon
21,5% LePen
17,5% Fillon
Source for all polls: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
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APR 18 2017: French Election remains unpredictable. Todays latest polls:Macron 23,5%
LePen 22,5%
Fillon 19,5%
Melenchon 19%.
Risks are now equal both for long and short side.
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APR 19 2017 - LePen only 2% ahead of Fillon. Odds rising that LePen might become 3rd on next Sunday.en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
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APR 20 2017: It´s now headline on bloomberg.comFrench Election Shocker: Pollsters Baffled by Four-Way Race
Sorce: bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-19/french-election-shocker-pollsters-baffled-by-four-way-contest
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APR 24 2017 -Keep your attention to FX volatility, click to open this chart and load new bars:
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APR 24 2017: Wall Street surges, Nasdaq hits record on French vote resultinvesting.com/news/stock-market-news/futures-rally-as-french-worries-ease
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APR 26 2017 - Le Pen not an option as French far-left polls members on election round twoinvesting.com/news/world-news/le-pen-not-an-option-as-french-far-left-polls-members-on-election-round-two-477426
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Le Pen, Macron spar as French presidential race narrows slightlyinvesting.com/news/world-news/macron-campaign-for-french-presidency-off-to-slower-start-than-le-pen%3A-poll-477875
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Polls suggest parliamentary majority within reach for France's Macronreuters.com/article/us-france-election-idUSKCN18E07E
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Comment: UK could be heading towards hung parliament after general election, pollster predictsYouGov predicts the Conservatives may win just 310 seats – 16 shy of an absolute majority
independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-majority-poll-election-2017-latest-labour-hung-parliament-seats-theresa-may-conservatives-a7764271.html
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Volatility drop could cause a blow off in European stockmarkets.The UK Election could be the trigger of this blow of. The final results of the French Parlamentary Election could end this momentum by sell the facts.
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The British election is in 3 days — and the polls are getting a lot closervox.com/world/2017/6/5/15739222/uk-election-jeremy-corbyn-labour-surge
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UK General Election polls: Tory lead slashed by 16 points as 'election race on a knife edge'standard.co.uk/news/politics/uk-general-election-polls-labour-slashes-tory-lead-by-16-points-as-election-race-on-a-knife-edge-a3557681.html
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Trump says ahead of former FBI Director Comey's testimony: 'I wish him luck'investing.com/news/politics-news/trump-says-ahead-of-former-fbi-director-comey's-testimony:-'i-wish-him-luck'-492503
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General election poll: Tories will fall 22 seats short of a majority, says latest YouGov modelProjection suggests Tories are on course to win 305 seats
independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-poll-latest-tories-majority-seats-short-labour-votes-yougov-model-conservatives-a7774961.html
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European shares tread water as UK election, Spanish banks in focusinvesting.com/news/stock-market-news/european-shares-tread-water-as-uk-election,-spanish-banks-in-focus-492671
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Also to remind - French parlamentary Elections on Sunday:en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_legislative_election,_2017
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French parliamentary election polls point to Macron landslideFirst-round results for overseas voters have La République En Marche candidates ahead in 10 out of 11 constituencies
theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/07/french-parliamentary-election-emmanuel-macron-first-round-la-republique-en-marche
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Four reasons why the French parliamentary elections mattertheconversation.com/four-reasons-why-the-french-parliamentary-elections-matter-77774
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Comment: Comey testifies and the ECB meets: Here’s what could drive the market on Thursdaycnbc.com/2017/06/07/comey-testifies-ecb-meets-what-could-drive-the-market-thursday.html
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Updates are incomplete. Sorry about that.Catatan
Tonight after hours trading anticipating a huge drop in volatility within the next 24-72 hours.Markets should go straight up.
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VIX is anticipating a further drop in volatility. This would mean likely the last leg to the upside before a larger consolidation for all global stockmarkets might occur.VIX probably on the path for the lowest numbers in stockmarkets history.
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VSTOXX and VIX showing same picture: Final volatility drop should indicate final stockmarket blow off bevor a new downtrend occurs.Trading ditutup secara manual
Trade closed. VIX made a new low today not seen since 1993. Same time VSTOXX didn't drop like expected. Trade is closed on profit taking.VSTOXX:
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VIX: Today new low not seen since 1993Catatan
Shortposition was closed in the meantime but not updated here. Additional informations here:
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VSTOXX: 20,81% spike to the upside on August 21 2017.
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