Daily Real Estate ETF [DRV]: 1-Month Forecast

5 Okt 2022

Fundamental Perspective:
In the past 50 days, the Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X ETF (DRV) has experienced a surge of over 90%. As a leveraged ETF corresponding to the inverse of the Housing Market, this hardly comes as a surprise. In the past two weeks alone, the Federal Reserve raised benchmark interest rates by another 75 basis points in its ongoing struggle to curb inflation, and this has resulted in the mortgage interest rate increasing nearly 7%, adding even more pressure on potential homebuyers who are already struggling to navigate the historically high prices across the country. With 90% of mortgage holders having interest rates below 5%, not many are willing to part with a home, only to purchase a new one at an increased rate of 6.3%. Fueled mainly by this lack of supply, housing prices continue to rise in the short term, further amplifying the strain on the ever-growing housing bubble.

Technical Perspective:
From a technical standpoint, DRV is currently caught in a cross-current of two opposing channels, shown on the graph in yellow. The larger, ascending channel has been active for nearly a year, while the smaller, descending channel became active late last month when the price of DRV broke through the horizontal resistance of around $60. Examination using a custom, multi-timeframe WaveTrend indicator (coming soon) also indicates that a minor bearish divergence may playout in the second week of October, followed by a more significant bullish divergence that may push the price towards the upper portion of the ascending channel during the first few weeks of November.

Note:
The forecasted candles (shown in white) are based on lower timeframe fractals on the Heiken Ashi plot. They are intended to demonstrate one possibility of how price may interact with horizontal supports and channel boundaries in the coming month. The pivots in the projected price action have been retrofitted to be consistent with standard channel mechanics and Fibonacci spaced time intervals.