Diupdate
AMS AG - A European Semi Conductor Play
For a company in the highly performing semi-conductor industry has had a rather lackluster year. Listing just a few months prior to the Covid-19 market dip has not helped either. However the stock has since recovered to pre-crisis levels. The question to me however is, how much more room does the stock have in the short run.
Analysts see DQW1 around 29.50.- which would indicate a further 46% upside from here. Personally the low-mid 20's seem more reasonable to me.
Fundamentally the stock is rather weak compared to it's peers but also trades at a significant discount. Hence my positioning here is a pure technical play and not a long term holding.
My rational:
+ continuous uptrend since March 20 lows within a manageable price range (approx. EUR 6 to either side) and without large surprise swings outside the channel
+ the recent pullback falls within the regression trend and has proven support
+ Formation of a ascending triangle with the resistance level at R1 that would also close the gap down if broken
+ MACD has positive momentum and does not seem overstretched in the near term
+ RSI is in neutral territory with positive momentum
- The all-time high (R2) will proof as a major resistance
- Feb 21 earnings might add additional volatility
My trade:
Long @ 15.54 I will add to the position if R1 is breached and outbreak confirms
SL 17.00
TP 24.00
SL & TP adjusted daily to regression level & projection.
***The above is my personal view and does not represent investment advice. Risk management is key, do not trade what you can't afford to loose***
Analysts see DQW1 around 29.50.- which would indicate a further 46% upside from here. Personally the low-mid 20's seem more reasonable to me.
Fundamentally the stock is rather weak compared to it's peers but also trades at a significant discount. Hence my positioning here is a pure technical play and not a long term holding.
My rational:
+ continuous uptrend since March 20 lows within a manageable price range (approx. EUR 6 to either side) and without large surprise swings outside the channel
+ the recent pullback falls within the regression trend and has proven support
+ Formation of a ascending triangle with the resistance level at R1 that would also close the gap down if broken
+ MACD has positive momentum and does not seem overstretched in the near term
+ RSI is in neutral territory with positive momentum
- The all-time high (R2) will proof as a major resistance
- Feb 21 earnings might add additional volatility
My trade:
Long @ 15.54 I will add to the position if R1 is breached and outbreak confirms
SL 17.00
TP 24.00
SL & TP adjusted daily to regression level & projection.
***The above is my personal view and does not represent investment advice. Risk management is key, do not trade what you can't afford to loose***
Catatan
Approaching R1 levels. Wedge almost completed and failed to breakout after 2/3 which technically would be a failed attempt. Thus R1 will be a more difficult hurdle to take now. Regression channel still intact and therefore SL and TP will be kept in place.Catatan
Dynamic support (wedge) has become resistance looking to break R1. A positive break would give the stock again room to continue its run.
MACD and RSI still indicate ok-ish momentum.
Holding on for now.
Trading ditutup secara manual
Forgot to update. Closed position at 20.- as a grew impatient with the performance. Timing was lucky and I am glad to be out looking at the recent sell-off. Still a solid name in semi-conductors but I believe there is better value in other stocks atm.
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