11/16/24 - $dogusdt - I own it in size. (LONG thesis)

16 Nov

11/16/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: DOGUSDT
I own it in size. (LONG thesis)

i'll give you the 2 min thesis and then a bit more spelled out. i purposely don't want to comment *too* much on crypto beyond my wheelhouse which has been bitcoin, the closed end funds and all of which have worked out well. i'm also no stranger to the alt world. have been thru now this will be my 4th cycle.

the soundbite thesis on DOG
- Largest most liquid token on BTC, but it's still tiny at $500 mm mkt cap
- Dog meme, but with v important and unique properties vs others e.g. Doge
- Not listed by any large Tier 1 exchanges

Let's unpack these for a more nuanced thesis:

- Largest most liquid token on BTC.

Up until a few yrs ago, it was for all practical purposes v difficult to launch any BTC-native assets. A few yrs ago, this all changed and a year and a half ago these started to gain traction w/ Ordinals, Stamps and most recently Runes. The entire Runes token base trades sub $1 bn. And for anyone paying attention, that's basically non-existent in the scheme of ETH ecosystem tokens, SOL ecosystem tokens, etc. etc. And the fact that it's native to BTC means ALL this BTC liquidity which is now approaching $2 tn, and that typically re-located into other eco's e.g. ETH as an example, when price pumped can still (of course/ and will) do this, but it has another way to *keep* more native-BTC related exposure and play the fringe.

- Dog meme, but with v important and unique properties vs others e.g. Doge

First, I own DOGEUSDT and I'm a fan. I think Elon's D.O.G.E department is only going to spark more inflows here. But at $50 bn mkt cap, upside, which it could still be large, is probably 5-10x constrained this cycle (and I'm being generous but nonetheless this is a fair "bull case" guess, from my experience). Then you have SHIBUST, the ETH "version"/ blue chip at $15 bn. You have SOL's WIFUSDT at $4 bn... and I go on and on. Will many of these be around in 5-10 years? MAYBE. A "DOG MONEY?" you must be crazy. Well, money is just a social network based on many things but ultimately driven by beliefs of the majority. This is why outside the US people dump their fiat for ours. This is why people still save in USD and not stocks or Bitcoin. Back to Dogs. They're easy for the mainstream new comer to understand (and this applies to Memes in general). You don't need some special knowledge to know when to buy, how to value, or stake or what any of that means. The value is just that. It's the number and it's the number go up. If it makes you laugh, or it's popular/ viral, it's more likely to succeed. Simple. Back to say DOGEUSDT, what's wrong with it? Well 1. it's it's own proof of work chain. This requires capital investment and has natural sellers (the miners) which means there's a special amt of demand that must outpace the natural sellers. In the current cycle, that's easy to account for. But it's a hinderance. What about SHIBUSDT or WIFUSDT. Also great memes, I own WIFUSDT not SHIBUSDT (fwiw). Well... they're built on chains which don't have the "security" as Bitcoin's POW. So while I think ETHUSDT is say here to stay and SOLUSDT is looking strong too, there are a lot of question marks about their say 10-20Y viability that is not necessarily the case today for BTCUSDT. This is all to say, you combine a meme and back it with native Bitcoin (network) security... and *THAT* is unique and why it's different.

- Not listed by any large Tier 1 exchanges

This is important for adoption and the ultimate mememetics... the number must go up to be and remain relevant. So besides some Tier 2 listings, DOGUSDT is not available to buy today on Coinbase, Binance... etc. Kraken is apparently going to list a perpetual which is awesome (happened 2 days ago), so we're on the way. But for now, it's not *easy* in the way most people buy alt-coins. They log into Coinbase and hit "buy" from bank account. In the case of Runes, you need to (as one mainstream example) transfer money into a BTC wallet, connect to something like MagicEden and then deal w/ their order book. Trust me, it's not complicated. But at the same time, it's not EASY. So once it becomes easy, we'll see much more money flow in. And given the sheer size of the token, and with it's native BTC hooks, any taking profits on BTC could flow into DOGUSDT whereas this typically/ historically would find its way back into other chains (back to point 1), and this flywheel between native BTC buying DOGUSDT + incremental exchange/ Tier 1 flows doing the same could be pretty wild.

I could write a lot on this topic. The irony of memes is here to stay. It's a function of the broken money system that benefits the printers and those closest to it and that ultimately spawned Bitcoin and it's adoption. Well. As much as I love BTC... it's becoming more of a mainstream (albeit not really, it's still super early days lol) asset, and also more institutionalized and let's be honest - it's not affordable for many/ esp the young guns out there. So they've invented their own money. You can choose to love or hate it. But it's out there, and these younger guys are social-media-first savants. You and I are savages compared to their memetic lifestyles. And they are eschewing the trad system. Stock are expensive, houses are expensive, bitcoin is becoming increasingly unaffordable... and so the ultimate F-U will be memes as ONE FORM of future money. And my friends...

This is what I loved so much about Bitcoin going back more than a decade ago. It felt like a real underground movement. Smart critical thinkers challenging the status quo. Memes are doing just that. They break your brain to understand (for those who haven't spent the time), to figure out WTF is going on and why would someone buy this. But dig a bit deeper. I'll challenge you. It's an anti establishment movement.

The Bitcoin monetary layer is being built. And it's being denominated in the tokens atop Bitcoin. The small blocks won and IMVHO are being vindicated today by L2's like Lightning for micro payments... and the new economy that's just beginning of Memes. Runes might not be the final iteration, but it's the first cycle. And first cycle euphoria and wonderment hasn't even begun. It's not on anyone's radar.

"It might make sense just to get some in case it catches on. If enough people think the same way, that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy." Satoshi Nakamoto

So. What do you think?

V