An Educational Journey into Technical Analysis with Dogecoin/USD

22 Jan

In this tutorial, we'll dive deep into the art of technical analysis using the Dogecoin USD chart as our canvas. You'll discover how to blend Fibonacci tools, Elliott Wave Theory, and the Wyckoff Method to forecast potential market movements. Whether you're new to trading or looking to refine your analytical skills, this guide will provide you with practical insights into identifying entry and exit points, understanding market phases, and preparing for future trends. Let's embark on this educational journey together to enhance your trading strategy toolkit.

When in doubt, Zoom Out!

Below I was looking at Arguments for a Significant Short Position Before the Continuation of the Bullish Trend and the Pursuit of New All-Time Highs

1. Elliott Waves: From the bear market bottom at 4.5 cents, we started wave 1 and concluded with wave 5 at the current top. Following five waves, we expect an ABC correction. Waves A and B have been completed, and we are now in wave C.
   
   
2. Fibonacci 1: Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension - From the all-time high (ATH) to the recent bear market bottom, then to the current 48-cent top. The 0.382 Fibonacci level suggests a target of 0.2130 for the upcoming drop, which I believe is necessary for liquidity ahead of the next upward movement.
   
   
3. Fibonacci 2: Regular Fibonacci Retracement - From the bottom of wave 4 to the top of wave 5, the 0.618 level is at 0.235 cents. I've marked a green box between these two targets.
   
   See in the image below how Backtesting this strategy on the two previous cycles shows that before breaking ATHs, Dogecoin always hit this 0.382 Fib level!
   
   I use these 2 Fibonacci targets to place the green box between them and where I expect price to go in the newxt couple of weeks.
4. Additional Observation: The green line below the 0.618 Fib retracement and above the 0.382 trend-based Fibonacci extension also marks a retest of the wave 3 high at 0.23 cents.
   

Now that we've examined the macro perspective, let's Zoom In to the current action:

1. Wyckoff Schematic: Check my previously published idea on Bitcoin, linked here, where Bitcoin is in a Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1. Dogecoin seems to follow with Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #2. I've added vertical lines for phase separation, a red resistance box, and a green support box.
   
   
2. Link to Richard D. Wyckoff, his Method and Story https://www.wyckoffanalytics.com/wyckoff-method/ .
   
3. ABC Pattern: Wave A from top to bottom is exactly 0.222 cents or -45.81%, suggesting wave C should be of similar magnitude. Wave B measures 0.1724 cents and 65.65% to the upside. Using an arrow tool, the 0.222 cent drop points exactly to the 0.382 Fibonacci target from the trend-based extension we did in the macro analysis, now highlighted in yellow. Link to chart.
   

Zooming in on the 4-hour Chart: I've drawn another Fibonacci retracement just for wave B, colored in turquoise blue. Notably, the 1.272 Fibonacci extension aligns with our macro 0.382 Fibonacci target, now colored yellow for clarity.



Speculations for Future Moves:

1. Fibonacci Circle and bottom timing prediction: Drawn from A to B, this circle in orange might help us predict when we hit the green box target at the bottom. Considering that the A drop measures exactly 12 days and 4Hours I have added another vertical line now marking a timeframe of 5 days from Thursday 30 January to Monday 3 February 2025 This is speculative but worth watching. It includes also a weekend so a CME gap before weekend plus filling the week after could also be in play.
   
   
2. Wyckoff Phases: According to earlier discussions, we're moving through phases A to E. I've added a vertical line where the Fib circle crosses our 1.272 and 0.382 Fib levels, suggesting we'll enter phase E on January 23, 2025, potentially concluding by February 2, 2025.
   
3. Predictive Arrows: Blue arrows indicate possible future price movements based on current patterns.
   
   

After hitting our target, I'll analyze again and publish a new idea with plans for breaking the ATH and targets for the anticipated bull market.

Enough for now, as it's getting late. Give me a follow, share if you liked this analysis, and stay tuned for updates.

23 Jan

Catatan

Much more clean to see on a monthly chart where you can clearly see the monthly support!
Monthly is ending in 8 days so it all makes sense time wise.

24 Jan

Catatan

Just a quick note that I am working on some more very valuable updates on this idea! I have made a 50-minute video already, going through some things, looking to see if I can find any bullish arguments. Unfortunately, the audio was horrible because of a mistake on my part. I will have to do it again. Besides, I will also introduce you to one of my most favorite tools that gives users that extra edge and data to improve your overall trading experience and success! You will not want to miss the next video update! Make sure you have followed me or at least this idea to get the update!

25 Jan

Catatan

I am really sorry but the 2nd attempt ov the video has also failed. File corrupted for some reason. Now i wasted already 2 hours of valuable time. It is a shame because I had some really interesting additional insights to share. Will look at another try from another device tomorrow.

Still I want to share with you the most important right now.

We might be near to the anticipated drop as you can see on the chart below. From exactly the point we are right now if we drop it would make the perfect B wave percentage wise!!! Caution advised with trying to catch the falling knife before it has reached it's target. I would not look at low timeframes right now!!!

25 Jan

Catatan

In my latest video, which unfortunately didn't succeed as hoped, I introduced one of my favorite tools alongside TradingView, offering additional insights and data. Among the platform's many intriguing features is the Liquidation Map. This tool displays liquidation clusters both above and below the current price. In the image shared, you can observe these clusters, particularly those below the price, aligning with my target levels. Notice how densely packed the long positions are; we've seen these longs get flushed out in massive cascading liquidity hunts from time to time. This action often leads to new clusters forming above the price as the market flushes down, only to then rebound and aim for these higher clusters.

I strongly recommend exploring this tool for yourself and diving into their comprehensive guide to understand its mechanics. I plan to delve deeper into this in upcoming videos.

I hope you find the content valuable. If you're interested in leveraging the Kingfisher platform for an edge in your trading, please visit my profile page tradingview.com/u/Candle_Styx/ and click on the website link before signing up. By doing this, you'll support my efforts, allowing me to gauge how many from the TradingView community value the free content I produce, which will help me decide whether to continue with more charts and videos. Also, consider following me on X.

Take care!

25 Jan

Catatan

I really recommend you follow me on X (at)DogeDali where I post much more updates from the Kingfisher tools.

26 Jan

Catatan

I made another update! Drop incoming!!! Click the Image/Link and read the description of the new idea!

7 hari yang lalu

Catatan

Short Update with Further Confirmation That the Idea Is Playing Out as Predicted!

The resemblance is too obvious:

1. Percentage Drop of the A Wave: The first two daily red candles resulted in a drop of 14.5%.

2. Percentage Drop of the C Wave: We are currently experiencing a similar scenario where the first two daily candles also resulted in a drop of 14.5%.

3. Subsequent Days in the A Wave: Over the following two days in the A wave, there was a total drop of 28.5%, with one of those days seeing a 12% decline.

If this pattern repeats, we might see another 12% drop later today after the next daily close, followed by a small relief bounce. This bounce would likely continue until the next candle close tomorrow, completing the remainder of the drop to total again at 28.5%. This would align our trajectory directly towards the target zone, positioned between the 0.618 (5th wave) and the 1.272 (B wave) retest levels.

1 day chart:



5 day chart:

Also, Notice the Paralel Channel:

I've added it to show you how it perfectly aligns with the existing structure so far, and the bottom of the channel reaches down to 21.5 cents. This confirms that there's a possibility it might wick down to that level as well.

4 hari yang lalu

Catatan

Let's look at it yet in another way shall we?

Left Side Analysis:

First Two Circles (Price Action): The price breaks above the 50 SMA but fails to sustain this level, falling back below it. This indicates attempts to establish a new higher support level but lacks the momentum or buying pressure to maintain it.

Third Circle (Price Action): The price retests the 50 SMA from below but fails again, leading to a significant drop. This suggests a failed attempt at support, leading to a bearish continuation.

MACD (Green Bumps): The first two circles on the MACD show green bumps above the zero line, indicating bullish momentum, but this momentum fades as the price falls back below the SMA. The third circle on the MACD shows the MACD line crossing below the zero line, leading to red volume bars, signaling a shift to bearish momentum.


Right Side Analysis:

Right Circle (Price Action): Similar to the left side, the price here also tests and breaks above a resistance level (around $0.33) but then fails to sustain this breakout, as indicated by the subsequent price action. This mirrors the failure to sustain above the 50 SMA seen on the left.

MACD (Green Bump): The right side also shows a green bump on the MACD, indicating a brief period of bullish momentum during the breakout attempt. However, this is followed by a decline, similar to the pattern on the left where the MACD eventually falls below the zero line.


Similarities:

Failed Breakouts: Both sides show instances where the price breaks above a significant level (50 SMA on the left, resistance on the right) but fails to hold that level, leading to a reversal or continuation of the previous trend.

MACD Signals: The MACD on both sides exhibits a similar pattern where initial bullish signals (green bumps) are followed by a bearish turn, with the MACD crossing below the zero line, indicating a shift in momentum from bullish to bearish.

Price Action Confirmation: The price action confirms these MACD signals, with the price failing to maintain higher levels after the initial breakout, leading to a drop.

In summary, both sets of yellow circles highlight similar market behaviors where initial bullish attempts fail, leading to bearish outcomes, supported by the MACD's transition from bullish to bearish signals. This pattern repetition could suggest a recurring theme in the market's behavior regarding this asset.

10 jam yang lalu

Catatan

Target hit! Thanks for playing! We might go lower but that will be another Trade Idea upcoming. Stay tuned and follow me here and twitter!