DOW 2024 Bear Market Top In Place 37% Sell Off In 18 Months
Using the monthly chart, the start of the 2024 bear market is here. Using strictly technicals I will give my reasonings.
All of my analysis is based on the 1962 Set Up
Identical to today in 2024
Starting with 1962
1. A 28% drop into a rising weekly 200sma
2. A then subsequent 88% rally
3. After said rally, a then, 25% bear market/ pullback into the top of the 1962 crash. About 50% of the move
4. A then 33% grind higher inside of a bear flag pattern over the course of 2 years
5. At the top of the bear flag channel, near the start of a new year, with a bearish engulfing candle to kick off the bear market.
Now with 2019
1. A 38% crash into a weekly rising 200sma
2. A then monster rally of 104%
3. At the top a 22% pullback into the top of the crash from 2019, which was half way of the 104% rally
4. A then 33% grind higher inside of a bear flag pattern
5. Now if true, then this would be the start of the 37% sell off into 24,000 which is the monthly demand zone from 2019
Zoomed out even further, you can see a 20 year period of range activity of 100% rallies followed by 40% sell offs. Boom and Bust cycle of Bear and Bull Markets. It wasn't until 1982 that the breakout happened.
After the breakout it went on to a absolute monster of a move of 250% in 5 years
Here with 2019 Chart using the same 20 year range, this would take us all the way into 2041 before a breakout of this chop. A 20,000 point sideways range
All of my analysis is based on the 1962 Set Up
Identical to today in 2024
Starting with 1962
1. A 28% drop into a rising weekly 200sma
2. A then subsequent 88% rally
3. After said rally, a then, 25% bear market/ pullback into the top of the 1962 crash. About 50% of the move
4. A then 33% grind higher inside of a bear flag pattern over the course of 2 years
5. At the top of the bear flag channel, near the start of a new year, with a bearish engulfing candle to kick off the bear market.
Now with 2019
1. A 38% crash into a weekly rising 200sma
2. A then monster rally of 104%
3. At the top a 22% pullback into the top of the crash from 2019, which was half way of the 104% rally
4. A then 33% grind higher inside of a bear flag pattern
5. Now if true, then this would be the start of the 37% sell off into 24,000 which is the monthly demand zone from 2019
Zoomed out even further, you can see a 20 year period of range activity of 100% rallies followed by 40% sell offs. Boom and Bust cycle of Bear and Bull Markets. It wasn't until 1982 that the breakout happened.
After the breakout it went on to a absolute monster of a move of 250% in 5 years
Here with 2019 Chart using the same 20 year range, this would take us all the way into 2041 before a breakout of this chop. A 20,000 point sideways range
Komentar:
On the daily chart, Entry short is still over 110 days away. I will sit here and wait
Komentar:
Using the yearly chart, I was able to create an upchannel, this 37% sell off lines up with demand and the channel bottom in June 2025. Roughly 18 months of selling
Komentar:
I believe price will be bullish for just a little while longer until it hits the top of the up channel at 38,700. I believe January CPI will take us there for the final long push. I believe institutions must have their sell orders sitting up there at 38,700 just waiting.
Trade aktif:
I placed my starter short position today on 01/18/2024 at price level 37,643.00 with the intention of adding more contracts on the way down. My ultimate target is 37% decline at price level 24,500.00
12,000 points down to 24,000