Is Dow Jones about to go down?
My first idea on DJI was a bit simple but here is another idea with more details explaining why it might go down.
Entry (Ideal): 25870
Target 1: 22380
Target 2: 21300 (not shown on the chart)
Target 3: 21000
Time: Target 3 will be around early November this year
Stop loss: Above the resistance arcs.
Arguments:
- 3 different Gann Squares says the same: All time high was in January this year. You find the start points on the lower pivot points.
- Global Fibonacci level (2.618) gives the same All time high. Look at my earlier idea for more explanations.
- The acending trend had a total length of 1.618 (0-3 is the length a and 3-5 is the length b (Golden ratio)).
- Elliott Wave Theory fits in: 5. Wave should be completed and we might be in the corrective trend currently.
Forecast:
- Bit hard to say but a possible scenario is that a Bearish Gartley Pattern would appear. This gives us a local 0.786 fibonacci level next. This is also the Entry level. According to EW theory and the corrective trend this will be the wave B. I think it is always hard to do the counting though.
- Further it will keep on going downwards and according to Gann Square (The way I use it) it will turn over at the next arc. I use Fibonacci locally to find the targets. In this case it is 0.5 level that fits best (Target 3). Alternatively 1.618 level from 5 - A leg (Target 2). A safer approach would be 0.382 level because of the earlier behaviour (Target 1).
Entry (Ideal): 25870
Target 1: 22380
Target 2: 21300 (not shown on the chart)
Target 3: 21000
Time: Target 3 will be around early November this year
Stop loss: Above the resistance arcs.
Arguments:
- 3 different Gann Squares says the same: All time high was in January this year. You find the start points on the lower pivot points.
- Global Fibonacci level (2.618) gives the same All time high. Look at my earlier idea for more explanations.
- The acending trend had a total length of 1.618 (0-3 is the length a and 3-5 is the length b (Golden ratio)).
- Elliott Wave Theory fits in: 5. Wave should be completed and we might be in the corrective trend currently.
Forecast:
- Bit hard to say but a possible scenario is that a Bearish Gartley Pattern would appear. This gives us a local 0.786 fibonacci level next. This is also the Entry level. According to EW theory and the corrective trend this will be the wave B. I think it is always hard to do the counting though.
- Further it will keep on going downwards and according to Gann Square (The way I use it) it will turn over at the next arc. I use Fibonacci locally to find the targets. In this case it is 0.5 level that fits best (Target 3). Alternatively 1.618 level from 5 - A leg (Target 2). A safer approach would be 0.382 level because of the earlier behaviour (Target 1).
Catatan
A closer look:Catatan
A comparison of the BTC bubble last christmas:We see that the same Gartley Pattern almost manage to complete, but "unfortunately" the bearish rectangle pattern was the final trigger in that case. It was a only 3,5% away from the entry (!). In other words it is important to beware of other possible entries.
Catatan
And with the BTC bubble in mind I made the same setup on Dow Jones:Catatan
Seems like a break out on the small wedge:Catatan
After a small pullback it is clearly diving again after second attempt:Catatan
Catatan
Pullback and testing the bottom line on the wedge + the upper line on the rectangle:Catatan
Some weeks later: Catatan
Some weeks later: Afraid of War trade, US arresting Meng, National debt is increasing, Withdrawal due to Christmas shopping?Catatan
Trade war**Catatan
Possible Scenario?Catatan
First Target hit: 13%The stop loss I picked was slightly too low, but it is cool to show how accurate Gann is.
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