Oh my...

3 Nov 2018

Heeeey, I am back with more FUD.
First a disclaimer: I am being 100% honest. I am not trying to scare anyone or making "sensational posts". If you cannot handle the truth you should not read, because this is brutal. I am going to try and keep it as short as possible, I can always update this idea later on with more. I am also not going to repeat what I already said about cycles and the PE ratio (Only been this high 3 times in 140 years 1929 1999 2018 oh I just did) etc.

This is not a drill.
Warren Buffet is above 100 billion $ in cash, the biggest he has ever been, and every smart money very successful investors are out.
Smart money represents less than 10% of the market so they alone are not going to cause a crash even if they sell what they have left.

Did you know 85% of the stock market is unsophisticated retail investor money being managed by DUMB fund managers following momentum and using modern portfolio theory troll strategy, and they get judged on a quarter to quarter basis.
The total amount of dumb money is probably over 95%. This is how billionaires are made.
"The stock market is a device that transfers money from the impatient to the patient".

Did you know there was, in the stock market, TODAY, a herd the likes of which you HAVE NEVER SEEN or beyond your imagination?
Imagine a horde of rhinoceroses. Ok now imagine they are all overfed and on steroids. Good. Now multiply this by 100.

The FUND MANAGER HERD. They watch what their collegues/the competition is doing and they are permanently under pressure (mainly from their noob investors), if they start seeing the other fund managers get out they are going to bail out too, and the snowball will get bigger.
85% of the money in the stock market is money from fund managers, mostly dumb ones (or forced to be), and I do not even want to check what part of this is debt...
Most fund managers do not baghold. They all do the same which is follow momentum. This is why we kept going up in the last 10 years if you ask me.
And when we start going down... oh well simple, the herd will just run the other way... In a straight line...

Money has NEVER. I repeat, NEVER, been this cheap. The stock market has been pushed so much by imaginary money.
Oh by the way for you cryptoers out there, most money in the markets right now is pure air money (debt) it is absolutely NOT going to "flow" into crypto. It is not trillions of dollars, it is tons of debt that money managers are going to have to pay back... Cool thing is they won't have any money to buy great companies Apple etc on discount if/when they get there ;)

Let this sink in for a while: Almost all the money in the stock market is in the hands of funds managers that get judged on a quarter to quarter basis and compared to other fund managers and have access to unlimited free money.
And not a single one of them is looking at the true value of stocks. It's only "follow momentum" "modern portfolio theory".
In 1929 there was no giant fund manager herd... This has the potential to be so brutal.

It could keep going up, especially with Trump pushing for it. I do not know how I feel about shorting. Shorting if we get a triple top would be worth the try as long as fees are low enough, very high reward and the odds are quite decent.
But much rather prefer to go long as the prices of really good companies drop over 50%. Amazon dropped 25% in the past 2 months, well that is far from enough.
FB down 35% there has been alot of drama around it, but there are still way too expensive, Apple barely dropped, really solid company even Buffet loves it - as long as suckers keep buying overpriced "luxury" phones WHICH VERY PROBABLY WON'T BE HAPPENING WHEN A MAJOR RECESSION HITS (I got the latest S9+ we are all suckers don't worry).


Being totally serious, this could easilly be worse than 2000. Not 1929, we cannot possibly go down 90%... Or can we? I guess even the Roman empire fell too. They all did.
In a couple of years getting rich is going to be very very easy for anyone that has available money in their pockets (this means 0 debt) and that potentially "missed out" several times (The people that do not miss out rarely get rich. Ok they NEVER do).

* I am specialized in identifying bottoms (yes every single book says to go with the flow and not try to find tops and bottoms but if I am one of the 1% that can do it should I force myself not too? lmao), and I have a secret tactic that allows me to both not miss out & never have my money in before the absolute bottom is reached. I will post every thing in due time. I think some people can figure out what my tactic is :)

4 Nov 2018

Catatan

The interests alone for the US government now are 300 billion. In 10 years if nothing is done to stop this the interest would be 1 trillion (or more?).

A reference:
"In fiscal year 2015, military spending is projected to account for 54 percent of all federal discretionary spending, a total of $598.5 billion."

At that point there would be 0 way they could pay, absolutely impossible.
If the bubble isn't popped soon, the USA will reach a point of no return.

Then they would end up with 2 solutions:
- Venezuela!
- Defaulting on its debt

Hehe defaulting means they just declare they cannot pay and will not pay.
All debt is gone. Who will stop them they have thousands of nukes and 10 aircraft carriers?
Except, every one sees the US as a safe haven for investing, and if that happens every one will pull their money out. Go put it in gold, or asia euro economies.
Stock market would fall worse than 1929.

It's pretty simple math. Quite crazy that the US president asks the FED to keep the bubble growing. He really could not care less about america? Or wants a civil war? Or just pretty dumb and failed maths at school but no worries daddy was around to help him become a self made business guy with a university diploma.

If the USA becomes a third world country, they won't use their military might to rob the rest of the world would they (I mean not just Oil :p)? Russia didn't right, apart from a little invasion here and there.

5 Nov 2018

Catatan

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. repurchased $928 million of its stock in the third quarter.

5 Nov 2018

Catatan

Some history.

2 part update

State Bankruptcies in the 1840s (in the United States) occurred in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, and the territory of Florida. Because the price of cotton was so low, their coffers ran low on gold. Or as wikipedia puts it: "The end of an inflationary period from 1834–1839 and the Panic of 1837 led to a tightening of credit lending from the Bank of England. By 1841, nineteen of the twenty-six U.S. states and two of the three territories had issued bonds and incurred state debt. Of these, the aforementioned states and territory were forced to default on payments and enter bankruptcy."

Most of the debt of the US, or as I would like to call it New Europe, was owed to investors in old Europe.
And it mostly all went throught investment banks if I am correct.

And the big shot n°1 investment banker at that time told them:
"You may tell your government that you have seen the man who is at the head of the financiers or Europe, and that he has told you that they cannot borrow a dollar, not a dollar"
Can you guess who that was? I will post the name at the end of this update.

The states then got kicked in the nuts and volunteered to "restructuring" and paid back the investors. The investment banking industry (Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase etc) got a chance to improve their reputation (and make people trust them more), which is their number 1 asset.
Oh by the way, this is probably why big investment banks CEO's get angry at their clients that want to get into crypto and have this interdiction to invest. They have more to lose than to gain. I can't possibly imagine how ridiculous a 300 years old establishment would look if they fell for a bubble that every one mocks 20 years later, and if crypto's were to go up (which they estimate has a low probability) they will still have a solid reputation, especially with big investors.

So the USA has been growing since 1842, back in the early XXth century they were already exporting their culture and goods to the whole world and a big player, then after WW2 and europe collapsed they "ruled" half the world basically (and soviet union the other half), and after the decline of USSR/CCCP the USA OWNED the world. They're still the biggest. And all that time they have remained reliant on investments (why?). This has accelerated their growth but it also has some downside to it. Actually after europe got destroyed by WW1 and WW2 and stopped sending trucks of gold to the USA, isn't that when the FED got created with the purpose of printing imaginary monopoly money to replace outside investor's? XD

END OF PART ONE

5 Nov 2018

Catatan

If they default, they collapse. If they keep borrowing, they will eventually end up a third world country, well at least they won't have problems with legions of illegals since they won't have any money to give for free...

Popping the bubble is the only way. Every one is afraid of it, but the alternatives are so much worse (if you're on the USA side that is). We europeans are still allies with them right? We kinda are the same people with the same culture and history, still allies? I sometimes have doubts when I see what is going on...

Present day president wants the bubble to pop after his term, because the herd will identify him as a bad presedent and person if it explodes now (due to ignorance & stupidity). I guess if he pushes the thing to stay up, this gives us more time to prepare (if you don't feel yet experienced or very educated about value investing as I feel myself), and making the bubble grow even more would mean a move even more explosive to the downside and more profit from the USA going up in fireworks. Maybe we get the triple top I posted about... Maybe a little fake breakout to the upside and then some fund managers take the chance to sell (since they would be in the green after their bad Q3 and all the stress and investor anger that brings and holding longer would mean alot of risk for little reward), followed by other fund manager selling, followed by even more fund manager that had a harsh year selling, followed by every one that is starting to consider the possibility of a bear market since mid 2018 even the die hard bulls.
I cannot predict the future and I am not an expert on saying when something will happen (is anyone?) but I know the general directions things go as I am not delusional and can read charts that repeat themselves for 500 years, and my specialty (and single trading strategy) consists of identifying temporary (including the last one which ends up being a permanent one) tops and bottoms with high certainty when they are clear (and missing out when they are not).
I look forward to testing myself as the dow moves.

Maybe what the USA needs is a more reasonable growth based on increases in productivity rather than insane amounts of money being thrown into the fire pit.
But I am no economist, this has been going on for 200 years, maybe it could keep going forever, maybe not as crazy as what is going on today with all the imaginary money thought (there was not as much imaginary money back then, but actual cold hard gold backed cash being invested).

So could you figure out who was the man that brought the USA to their knees in 1842? James Mayer de Rothschild ;)

END OF PART TWO

5 Nov 2018

Catatan

I have to add a correction:
"During World War I, America was transformed from a "debtor" to a "creditor" nation. On the eve of World War I, some $7 billion in foreign investment was present in the United States, while U.S. investments abroad totaled $3.5 billion. This meant that the United States had larger obligations to foreigners than foreigners had to it, the definition of a debtor nation. At the end of World War I inward foreign investment was actually lower than in 1914, while U.S. investments abroad had surged. America had become a creditor nation—a status it would continue to hold until the late 1980s. Yet all the time the United States was a creditor nation, inward foreign investment was present, following an uneven course."
- A part of an encyclopedia article I am reading.
So during the "golden era" of the USA they were not leeching money from the world if I got this correctly.

Actually I have no idea if it would be wise to invest in the USA in the XXIrst century.
So this is what value investors mean that they spend all their time reading. Good thing is all this information is available, but there is so much needed to take the right decision, and what company to choose.

The way I would do it is "active value investing", using what I am good at - trading going long at bottoms - using some kind of trailing stop and exiting BUT leaving my profit in, so using my trading skills to give me an edge so if my weaker link messes up (I invest in the wrong thing) I am in it for free anyway. And I can do this for several companies which I know have high odds of surviving even if they do not grow that much, each time they dip... And don't have to read all the time that way <3

8 Nov 2018

Catatan

Saw this title "This 43-year-old running for president in 2020 wants to give everyone $1,000 a month in free cash"
Did not even bother reading.

Lmao if a mastermind like this gets elected and he could (research shows people are getting dumber and dumber over the last decade there is no bottom but maybe we have reached the point where humans cannot call themselves an advanced race anymore but are just another ape species and if you think I am kidding chimps a couple decades ago had an IQ of around 50, tests are made so 100 is always average but if someone from today took a test from back then what score would he get? Or test chimps IQ with today's standards, are we still way above them? 50 points that's not such a stretch... there is a 15 points difference between educated and uneducated and scores can fall 5-10 points per generation so...)

I do not know how a genius democrat (what happened to this party? They're commies now? wtf?) would do it, maybe storm the FED gun them all down, lock up the jews in camps, print loads of money, then grab white men in the name of equality (20% of the US population now, 15% in a few years then 10...etc), gun them down or lock them up in camps, stock market keeps going up up up every one is rich hurray, hey maybe Bitcoin goes 1 million dollars then, and then boom third world country.

Next elections will literally be an intelligence test. I hope the democrats choose someone that is not pol pot, would be nice.

Ye I think people are stupid enough, would not be surprised.

Also, look at Oil which keeps going down, if it keeps getting cheaper, IF, then companies get cheaper energy and can be more profitable, keeps the bubble alive a little longer.

11 Nov 2018

Catatan

Saw this by StockCats, had a good laugh (I assumed it's true):
"my Uber driver spotted an inverse head & shoulders pattern in the S&P"

14 Nov 2018

Catatan

It is going to go up eventually and make a triple top right?
I am so tired of missing out. Just go give me the perfect entry mate.

14 Nov 2018

Catatan

Text from trader who works on a floor with over 200 traders: "This market is killing both longs and shorts." (I am not the recipient)

Hehehe professional traders that cannot sit in cash when conditions are bad.
Are they limited to equities? If so that is pretty sad. I'd hang myself if I was not able to jump to something else when conditions are so cancerous.

Trading from home as your own boss >>>> all. (But seriously, lots of pro's that try going solo fail so it must be not that easy and people say that it takes an incredible individual to make this work on his own - look at me I am incredible sitting on my ass shitposting!)