2024-07-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes mostly had big ups and big downs today. DJI and Russel are pretty wild. Dax puked hard, which I probably announced too many times by now but yeah. 18000 soon.
Nasdaq: Refuses to go down. Every 1h bear bar has a big tail below, means bulls are in max euphoria and buying every dip, every tick. Bottom of the bull channel had 3 3 touches and we can probably expect another test of the highs tomorrow. Can be higher, lower or an exact double top, no never now in advance and it does not matter because you trade them the same. Trading range 20570 - 20770. Peak bubble.
Commodities - Gold support at 2355 held again but lower highs. Give it 1-2 more days until the next breakout and my money is on the bears. Will see 2300 again soon.
Oil mostly sideways today, big support above 81 but still lower lows and lower highs. I expect a dead cat bounce as laid out in my weekly update. Will print below 80 this or next week.
Bitcoin - W4 going sideways with big swings. Decent two legged pullback on the daily chart and could break down again soon but since market went sideways for one week during W2, we can expect a bit more sideways. Small swing short currently after taking big profits from the previous down to 54000. 57855 entry, sl 58800.
dax
comment:
current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 18580 - 18800
bull case: Bulls tried to print above 18650 4 times on Monday and today and since market found not enough buyers, we tested lower. Bulls gave up below 18500 once market went there the third time today. Bulls are still in a higher low on the daily chart but this bear bar today was the final nail imo.
Invalidation is below 18180.
bear case: Bears in full control again. Below all ema and today they broke below the bear channel and markt held there. Very strong selling and we can expect more. Bears want to test the small bull trend line around 18300. If they break even that, it’s the next trend line around 18200. I do not expect bears to break below that and the triangle will probably play out more days before a big breakout to the downside.
Invalidation is above 18630.
short term: Overall bearish but neutral until 1h ema comes closer or a strong break below 18360. No need to rush into trades because of something you hope will happen. Let it happen and hop along.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Started a small short position 18611 during today’s sell off. Will hold this until we reach 17000. Currently +200, stop is 18500
trade of the day: Shorting against the 1h 20ema.
overall market comment
Indexes mostly had big ups and big downs today. DJI and Russel are pretty wild. Dax puked hard, which I probably announced too many times by now but yeah. 18000 soon.
Nasdaq: Refuses to go down. Every 1h bear bar has a big tail below, means bulls are in max euphoria and buying every dip, every tick. Bottom of the bull channel had 3 3 touches and we can probably expect another test of the highs tomorrow. Can be higher, lower or an exact double top, no never now in advance and it does not matter because you trade them the same. Trading range 20570 - 20770. Peak bubble.
Commodities - Gold support at 2355 held again but lower highs. Give it 1-2 more days until the next breakout and my money is on the bears. Will see 2300 again soon.
Oil mostly sideways today, big support above 81 but still lower lows and lower highs. I expect a dead cat bounce as laid out in my weekly update. Will print below 80 this or next week.
Bitcoin - W4 going sideways with big swings. Decent two legged pullback on the daily chart and could break down again soon but since market went sideways for one week during W2, we can expect a bit more sideways. Small swing short currently after taking big profits from the previous down to 54000. 57855 entry, sl 58800.
dax
comment:
current market cycle: trading range (triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 18580 - 18800
bull case: Bulls tried to print above 18650 4 times on Monday and today and since market found not enough buyers, we tested lower. Bulls gave up below 18500 once market went there the third time today. Bulls are still in a higher low on the daily chart but this bear bar today was the final nail imo.
Invalidation is below 18180.
bear case: Bears in full control again. Below all ema and today they broke below the bear channel and markt held there. Very strong selling and we can expect more. Bears want to test the small bull trend line around 18300. If they break even that, it’s the next trend line around 18200. I do not expect bears to break below that and the triangle will probably play out more days before a big breakout to the downside.
Invalidation is above 18630.
short term: Overall bearish but neutral until 1h ema comes closer or a strong break below 18360. No need to rush into trades because of something you hope will happen. Let it happen and hop along.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: Started a small short position 18611 during today’s sell off. Will hold this until we reach 17000. Currently +200, stop is 18500
trade of the day: Shorting against the 1h 20ema.
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