Short DAX, bearish divergence on Daily TF

20 Okt 2019

Divergences are a powerful way to identify trend movements/ reversal points alongside other indicators

The chart of DAXshows a scenario in the recent past where we got a great bullish divergence where price made a lower low, not confirmed by RSI and in hindsight, would have been a great entry point

Also, from where we are, there is a bearish divergence, again RSI not confirming the recent surge in price movement.

Calls for a short position, with TP at 0.786 Fib retracement levels and SL right above recent highs

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Cheers

22 Okt 2019

Catatan

Thought I share any interesting piece of data:

Did you know from 1983 to 2018 (36 years history) for DAX

1. The Sept close candle has been in the Green 25 times and Red about 11 times (so Sept month being higher than previous month probability is about 70%

2.Oct and Nov close candle (that's posted in Nov and Dec respectively) has closed 24 times in Green and 12 times in Red (67% probability of ending higher than previous month)

3. All 3 months ending higher that the previous one probability is 30.56%

4. All 3 months ending in Red is a mere 5%

Year Sept close Oct close Nov close
1983 G G G
1984 G G G
1985 G R G
1986 R G R
1987 R R R
1988 G R G
1989 R G G
1990 G G R
1991 R R G
1992 G G R
1993 G R G
1994 G R G
1995 R G R
1996 G G G
1997 R G G
1998 G G G
1999 G G G
2000 G R G
2001 G G G
2002 G G R
2003 G G G
2004 G G G
2005 R G G
2006 G G G
2007 G R G
2008 R R G
2009 R G G
2010 G G R
2011 G G R
2012 G G G
2013 G G G
2014 R G R
2015 G G R
2016 G R G
2017 G R R
2018 R R R
2019 G ? ?


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