Is Europe like you believe it should be?

2 Jan 2017

Retail Investors all over this planet are deeply bearish about Europe.

Retail Investor betting for month on falling stockmarket prices. And they still do.

Even in Europe, USA or any place in the world. But is the crowed always right? Read the following updates about European Economy and think who might be right.

Fact´s and Figures: 80% of all retail investors are short the DAX - and i guess that not only retail investors might short Europe now for month.

And keep in mind - the Euro-Bond-Future is still on the rise, even there are some good economic figures out today. Look not only for the monthly numbers. Keep an eye on the overall trend. Make your own conclusions if this might end with a U-Turn ---> now. If ever there is no U-Turn, same time the Bund´s are rising and and as you know Investors missed this upmove totaly isn´t it a perfect storm to push the DAX higher and higher?

Take you Time. Just think. Traders for my opinion need to put theire own political "bias" to the side and follow fact´s and figures. If you want to argue than do this with some friends. If you want to survive 2017 follow the fact´s ---> only. Or you might belong in the end to "the crowed".

I will add now the fact´s wich might suprise you.

2 Jan 2017

Catatan

Germany:

Quote:

German factory growth reaches close to three-year high in December: PMI

BERLIN, (Reuters) - German manufacturing growth reached its highest in almost three years in December, driven by rising demand from Asia and the United States, a survey showed on Monday, suggesting the sector will contribute to an expansion in the fourth quarter.

Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of the economy, rose to 55.6 from 54.3 in November to reach its highest level in 35 months.

That was slightly above a flash reading and well above the 50 line that separates growth from contraction.

"Strong growth in December meant that goods producers enjoyed their best quarter in nearly three years during Q4," Markit economist Philip Leake said. "The manufacturing sector is therefore likely to help overall GDP growth accelerate from the modest 0.2 percent pace seen in the third quarter."

Source: investing.com/news/economic-indicators/german-factory-growth-reaches-close-to-three-year-high-in-december:-pmi-450672

2 Jan 2017

Catatan

Quote:

French December factory activity strongest since 2011: PMI

Economic Indicators4 hours ago (Jan 02, 2017 04:00AM ET)

PARIS, (Reuters) - French manufacturers ended 2016 on a strong note with activity at a 5-1/2 year high in December while hiring and new orders jumped, a monthly survey showed on Monday.

Data compiler IHS Markit said its final purchasing managers' index rose to 53.5 in December from 51.7 in November, unchanged from a preliminary reading.

The increase brought the index to its highest level since May 2011 and marked the third month in a row above the 50-point line dividing expansions in activity from contractions.

"Favorable demand conditions had encouraged firms to raise output, which resulted in the sharpest round of job creation in 5-1/2 years," IHS Markit economist Alexander Gill said.

"These are positive signs for France as the country contends with high levels of unemployment," he added.

Companies increased staffing levels as the flow of new orders grew at the strongest pace since May 2011, suggesting the spurt of activity in December may be more than a month-long blip.
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Source:investing.com/news/economic-indicators/french-december-factory-activity-strongest-since-2011:-pmi-450673

2 Jan 2017

Catatan

Quote:

Italy's December manufacturing PMI rises to six-month high
Economic Indicators5 hours ago (Jan 02, 2017 04:00AM ET)


ROME, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Italian manufacturing activity grew in December at its fastest rate since June, a survey showed on Monday, signaling an acceleration in economic growth at the end of the year.

The Markit/ADACI Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 53.2 in December from 52.2 in November, above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction.

The PMI also showed that manufacturing orders and output both increased to their highest levels since June. The sub-index for new orders rose to 54.7 from 53.2 in November, driven by orders from abroad.

The positive PMI is welcome news for Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni, who took over leadership of the euro zone's most chronically sluggish economy in December.

The government forecasts 0.8 percent growth last year, less than half of what is forecast for the German economy. But growth rebounded in the third quarter, rising 0.3 percent from the previous three months, compared with a 0.1 percent increase in the second quarter.

Source: investing.com/news/economic-indicators/italy's-december-manufacturing-pmi-rises-to-six-month-high-450674

2 Jan 2017

Catatan

Quote:


Euro zone factories entering 2017 in good shape, PMI shows
Economic Indicators5 hours ago (Jan 02, 2017 04:10AM ET)

LONDON, (Reuters) - Manufacturers in the euro zone started 2017 on a solid footing, after ramping up activity at the fastest pace in more than five years in December and building up a burgeoning order book, a survey showed on Monday.

IHS Markit's final 2016 manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for the euro zone registered 54.9 in December, in line with an earlier flash estimate and its highest since April 2011.

That was above both the 50 mark which separates growth from contraction and November's 53.7. An index measuring output, which feeds into the composite PMI, jumped to a 32-month high of 56.1 from 54.1.

"Euro zone manufacturers are entering 2017 on a strong footing, having ended 2016 with a surge in production," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.

"To put the PMI data into perspective, the five-and-a-half-year high reached in December is broadly consistent with factory output growing at an impressive annual rate of approximately 4 percent."

Suggesting this month will also be strong, a new orders sub-index climbed to 55.9 from 54.4, its highest since April 2011, even though companies raised prices at the fastest rate in over five years.

"Policymakers will be doubly pleased to see the manufacturing sector's improved outlook being accompanied by rising price pressures," Williamson said.

In a surprise move last month, the European Central Bank cut asset purchases but promised protracted stimulus to aid a still-fragile recovery and bolster weak inflation.

3 Jan 2017

Catatan

But it´s not only Europe:

Quote:

U.S. manufacturing, construction sectors shine as year ended
Economic Indicators3 hours ago (Jan 03, 2017 01:12PM ET)

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. factory activity accelerated to a two-year high in December amid a surge in new orders and rapidly rising raw material prices, indicating that some of the drag on manufacturing from prolonged dollar strength and a slump in oil prices was fading.

Other data on Tuesday showed U.S. construction spending hit a 10-1/2-year high in November, providing a boost to a fourth-quarter economic growth estimate. The reports suggested President-elect Donald Trump would inherit a strong economy, with a labor market that is near full employment, from the Obama administration.

"The economy is ending the year on a high note with even the manufacturing sector showing signs of faster growth. It appears that President (Barack) Obama will be leaving his successor with a pretty good economy," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity rose 1.5 percentage points to 54.7 last month, the highest level since December 2014. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of the U.S. economy.

A gauge of new orders jumped 7.2 percentage points to its highest level since November 2014. Twelve industries, including petroleum, electrical equipment, appliances and components and machinery, reported growth in new orders last month.

Export orders also rose, but order backlogs were unchanged. A measure of factory employment hit its highest since June 2015 and the production sub-index rose 4.3 percentage points.

Manufacturers reported paying more for raw materials, which suggests producer inflation could push higher in coming months. The ISM's prices index surged 11 percentage points to its highest level since 2011. It was the 10th straight month of increases in raw materials prices.

Last month, 38 percent of supply executives in the ISM survey reported paying higher prices.

"The sharp rise in the prices index plays into the global 'reflation' theme with investors pointing to rising input prices in China and elsewhere as signaling a potential return to higher inflation rates," said Andrew Hollenhorst, an economist at Citigroup (NYSE:C) in New York.

STRONG DOLLAR A THREAT

A collapse in oil prices in 2015 and a surge in the dollar has hobbled manufacturing. Much of the impact has been through weak business spending on equipment, which has contracted for four straight quarters.

But with oil prices rising and touching 18-month highs on Tuesday, manufacturing is perking up. Gas and oil well drilling has risen over the last several months.

Renewed dollar strength following Trump's November election victory could, however, limit gains in factory activity. Trump has pledged tax cuts and massive infrastructure spending, an expansionary fiscal policy agenda that could fan inflation and spur a faster pace of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve.

Source: investing.com/news/economic-indicators/factory-activity-hits-two-year-high-as-orders-surge-450848

7 Jan 2017

Catatan

Quote:

European earnings set to record their best years since the financial crisis: BoA report
Silvia Amaro | @Silvia_Amaro

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European earnings are expected to rise this year as growth improves, the euro weakens and commodity prices strengthen.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch on Friday raised its forecast for 2017 European earnings by 11 percent.

"As we enter 2017, growth appears to be accelerating, with the ISM (manufacturing data) surging in January and European PMIs hitting a five year and a half high," BoA said in a research note Friday.

Data released Wednesday showed U.S. December ISM services and non-manufacturing beating forecasts. Also this week, the euro zone PMI figures came in strongly. On Friday, retail sale figures and economic sentiment were also supportive of an upbeat European economy.

"Add in a weaker euro and our strategists' bullishness on commodity prices, and European earnings prospects look good," the bank added.

For next year, BoA is forecasting an 8 percent increase in earnings. If both, the 2017 and 2018 figures materialize, "2017-18 would be the best years for European earnings since the global finance crisis," the bank said.


cnbc.com/2017/01/06/european-earnings-set-to-record-their-best-years-since-the-financial-crisis-boa-report.html

8 Jan 2017

Catatan

Comment: Watch on Monday the FTSE/mib for rocket straight up gains.

The reason why:

cnbc.com/2017/01/08/5-star-founder-proposes-divorce-from-ukip-in-eu-parliament.html

9 Jan 2017

Catatan

Germany´s Exports on Record

Quote:

WIESBADEN – Germany exported goods to the value of 108.5 billion euros and imported goods to the value of 85.8 billion euros in November 2016. These are the highest monthly figures ever calculated both for exports and for imports. Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that German exports increased by 5.6% and imports by 4.5% in November 2016 year on year. After calendar and seasonal adjustment, exports increased by 3.9% and imports by 3.5% compared with October 2016.
Source:
destatis.de/EN/PressServices/Press/pr/2017/01/PE17_006_51.html

24 Jan 2017

Catatan

"French private sector output rises at fastest rate in 5-1/2 years"
Economic Indicators7 minutes ago (Jan 24, 2017 03:03AM ET)

Investing.com - French private sector activity rose at the fastest rate in five-and-a-half years in January, adding to optimism over the economic outlook of the euro zone’s second largest economy, according to data released on Tuesday.
The preliminary reading of the Markit services purchasing managers’ index came in at a nineteen-month high of 53.9 this month from 52.9 in December.

Economists had forecast an uptick to 53.2.

The manufacturing PMI ticked down to 53.4 from 53.5 a month earlier, in line with forecasts.
The composite output index, which measures the combined output of both the manufacturing and service sectors rose to 53.8 from 53.4, beating expectations for 53.3. Source: investing.com/news/economic-indicators/french-private-sector-output-rises-at-fastest-rate-in-5-1-2-years-455205

31 Jan 2017

Catatan

Jan 31 2017

Europe is still suffering about "Brexit". Same Time month by month there are more and more signs that a "hard" Brexit never will occur and finally a Brexit might be unlikely

British firms relocating to Ireland, more to follow: Irish minister
Economy11 minutes ago (Jan 31, 2017 04:00PM ET)

LONDON (Reuters) - Some British-based financial services firms have already decided to relocate at least part of their operations to Ireland, and others are expected to follow suit in the first half of this year, Ireland's financial services minister said on Tuesday.
Speaking at an event hosted by the London Irish Business Society, Eoghan Murphy said the clear signal that Britain will trigger divorce negotiations from the EU at the end of March had been the catalyst for these moves. Earlier this month Irish finance minister Michael Noonan said Ireland's central bank has had over 100 inquiries from British-based financial firms considering moving operations. "With the time horizon we now have around Article 50, some decisions have already been made for relocation," Murphy said, declining to name the companies, or give a number. "We are expecting for some parts of the industry for decisions to be made in Q1 and Q2." Barclays (L:BARC) is preparing to make Dublin its EU headquarters when Britain leaves the European Union, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Thursday. [nL5N1FG5CZ] Murphy added that after the two years of formal Brexit talks conclude, he expected there would need to be at least a five-year transitional agreement between the EU and Britain before a complete divorce could take effect. Source:

31 Jan 2017

Catatan

Jan 31 2017

Quote: Euro zone growth outpaces the US for the first time since the 2008 crash
Silvia Amaro | @Silvia_Amaro

Euro zone officials received a slew of good news on Tuesday morning with stronger-than-expected growth and inflation figures and a falling unemployment rate. The 19-member economy saw GDP (gross domestic product) growth of 0.5 percent in the last quarter of 2016 compared to the previous three-month period, and the preliminary figures also showed a 1.8 percent rise compared to the previous year. As a result, in the whole of 2016, the euro area grew 1.7 percent.
This means that for the first time since 2008, during the height of the global financial crisis, the euro area's GDP rose at a faster pace than the U.S., according to official data. Last week U.S. authorities said the economy grew only 1.6 percent in 2016, its weakest pace since 2011. Source: cnbc.com/2017/01/31/euro-zone-gdp-hits-05-in-last-quarter-of-2016-beating-estimates-january-inflation-at-18-unemployment-falls.html

1 Mar 2017

Catatan

MAR 1 2017: Euro zone factory activity touches six-year high on weaker euro: PMI
Economic Indicators14 minutes ago (Mar 01, 2017 04:20AM ET)

Quote: By Rahul Karunakar
(Reuters) - The upturn in euro zone factory activity accelerated in February to the fastest rate in nearly six years, according to a business survey on Wednesday that also showed a weaker euro boosted demand for exports. IHS Markit's final manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for the euro zone rose to 55.4 in February, the highest since April 2011, from January's 55.2. It was revised down slightly from a flash estimate of 55.5 but remained far above the 50 mark denoting growth in activity.
An index measuring output, which feeds into the composite PMI, due on Friday, jumped to 57.3, which was also the highest
in nearly six years. The flash composite PMI suggested economic growth of 0.6 percent in the first quarter.
"Euro area manufacturers are reporting the strongest production and order book growth for almost six years, in what's
looking like an increasingly robust upturn," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.
"This year has seen firms more optimistic about the future than at any time since the region's debt crisis. Companies reporting stronger demand in both home and export markets, with the weakened euro providing an accompanying tailwind to help drive sales." Source: investing.com/news/economic-indicators/euro-zone-factory-activity-touches-six-year-high-on-weaker-euro:-pmi-462894

2 Mar 2017

Catatan

MAR 02 2017: US-Investors starts now to re-view Europe

There’s another land of opportunity in the reflation trade — Europe
Published: Mar 2, 2017 11:53 a.m. ET
Banks and life insurers are sectors investors should consider, say strategists

The prospect of higher inflation, driven by plans for Trump administration spending, has lifted spirits on U.S. markets. But there’s another land of opportunity for the reflation trade, analysts say: Europe.
Financial markets worldwide have been lifted by U.S. President Donald Trump’s promise to ramp up fiscal spending and reform taxes. The hope is that these projects will spur economic growth in the U.S. and help drive up inflation. ...
...Now that global inflation is heating up, an opportunity has opened up for European companies to raise their prices for goods and services, according to Barclays analysts. For some time, businesses had to tailor their pricing to the subdued inflation environment at home, while at the same time having to follow the lead of local competitors abroad.

That added up to “a strong relationship between pricing and developed-market inflation,” especially international inflation, the analysts said.
“With this in mind, if inflation picks up, we think pricing should improve, thereby driving an increase in European profit margins,” the Barclays analysts said. “Even a 2% increase in margins, combined with positive sales growth, mathematically leads to strong earnings growth over the coming few years.” Source: marketwatch.com/story/theres-another-land-of-opportunity-in-the-reflation-trade-europe-2017-03-02?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

15 Mar 2017

Catatan

MAR 15 2017: German GDP growth likely accelerated in Q1 2017
morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/TDJNDN_201703153115/german-gdp-growth-likely-accelerated-in-first-quarter-economics-ministry.html

24 Mar 2017

Catatan

MAR 24 2017: Euro zone businesses growing at fastest rate in nearly six years: PMI
investing.com/news/economic-indicators/euro-zone-businesses-growing-at-fastest-rate-in-nearly-six-years:-pmi-468568

24 Mar 2017

Catatan

MAR 24 2017: Euro zone composite PMI unexpectedly increases to 6-year high in March
investing.com/news/economic-indicators/euro-zone-composite-pmi-unexpectedly-increases-to-6-year-high-in-march-468566

28 Mar 2017

Catatan

March 28 2017: Netherlands achieve 2.9 billion budget surplus; economic growth stronger expected
nltimes.nl/2017/03/24/netherlands-achieve-29-billion-budget-surplus-economic-growth-stronger-expected

30 Mar 2017

Catatan

Comment: MAR 29 2017: After Hours DAX 12.240 - just 150 point missing for a new All Time High.

2 Apr 2017

Catatan

APR 01 2017: For Stockmarket Traders the Brexit is linked with "the rise of populism" in Europe. In most traders logic the Brexit should had caused a victory of Dutch far right party PVV (Gert Wilders) and should cause a victory of Marine LePen. The overall logic behind this story was to short European stockmarkets. This the rise of populism die not happened because voters in Europe turning away from populism, wich finally caused without any doubt the Brexit.

Two votes had been won by populists: The Brexit and the U.S. Election. Now lets have a look, how the latest approval rates are for Donald Trump:

MAR 30 2017: Majority of Americans think Trump's doing a poor job and the country is headed in the wrong direction: Poll
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/30/poll-trumps-approval-rating-is-falling.html
Trump's approval rating slips to another new low, much lower than resent presidents at this point in their terms
Source: cnbc.com/2017/03/29/trumps-approval-rating-slips-to-another-new-low-much-lower-than-recent-presidents-at-this-point-in-their-terms.html

3 Apr 2017

Catatan

APR 03 2017: Donald Trump says he is ‘totally in favour’ of ‘wonderful’ EU
US President performs apparent U-turn after criticising bloc in previous interviews
independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-european-union-eu-us-president-totally-in-favour-wonderful-steve-bannon-mike-pence-a7596731.html

3 Apr 2017

Catatan

APR 03 2017: German manufacturing growth reached an reached an almost six-year high in March, Markit's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing showed on Monday. Manufacturing activity in France and Italy also rose, adding to signs of a pickup in momentum in the global economy.
Source: investing.com/news/stock-market-news/stocks-start-second-quarter-on-firm-note,-u.s.-policy-in-focus-as-trump-xi-talks-loom-470565

5 Apr 2017

Catatan

APR 05 2017 Euro zone businesses started 2017 on a six-year high: PMI
investing.com/news/economic-indicators/euro-zone-businesses-started-2017-on-a-six-year-high:-pmi-471528

2 Mei 2017

Catatan

German manufacturing growth near six-year high in April: PMI m.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/german-manufacturing-growth-near-six-year-high-in-april:-pmi-479204