BTCUSD vs select Altcoins: the flippening?

11 Jun 2017

I think right now, BTC (and ETH/ETC) present unique risks, regarding scaling of their respective networks to accomodate for the growth of the market, smart contracts and other future features they might implement. BTC is currently in terrible shape due to potential risks ahead, and lunatic sentiment, similarly to ETH, which has problematic design flaws that can lead to a dead end regarding scaling solutions according to well informed people I consult with.

Both have practically exhausted technical upside in the charts, unlike other coins.
XRP, DASH and LTC, might be able to outperform these two, specially if we get a resurgence of fears surrounding scaling implementations in BTC. All of these have fundamental qualities that let them scale with more ease, although they present their own unique risks. That being said, technical charts, specially the ratios, but also in fiat terms, show a lot more upside is possible for all 3 coins, so I think a wise investor might be able to divest from cryptos, to reduce risk, but at the same time adopt a dollar neutral portfolio, mostly in cash as collateral for BTC shorts, and in select altcoin positions based on their risk profile. Factor in volatility to size each, or just adopt an equal dollar weight position long in altcoins, spot, while short BTC using margin. This will reduce funding costs, compared to being in cash and long the *BTC cross pairs.

Best of luck!

Ivan Labrie.

11 Jun 2017

Catatan

Fundamental recap in a few bullet points:

Recipe for a BTC correction:
#1 sentiment
#2 long term target almost hit, short and intermediate term trends targets and time duration exhausted until July 31st
#3 PBOC regulations this month
#4 SEC regulations? SEC etf rejection? SEC eth etf? IRS vs coinbase clients?
#5 last but not least: Scaling fudstorm

Pullback/stagnation in BTC seems logical, smart money might flow to less inflated assets and devoid of such risks.

12 Jun 2017

Catatan

To people inquiring about risks in ETH, this is what my contact said regarding scalability:

"As per Vitalik himself:

"Not only did the sale finish within two blocks, but also:

The total transaction fees paid were 70.15 ETH (>$15,000), with the highest single fee being ~$6,600
185 purchases were successful, and over 10,000 failed
The Ethereum blockchain’s capacity was full for 3 hours after the sale started"
Source: vitalik.ca/general/2017/06/09/sales.html

twitter.com/vladzamfir/status/838006311598030848?lang=en
"Ethereum isn't safe or scalable. It is immature experimental tech. Don't rely on it for mission critical apps unless absolutely necessary!"

This makes it impossible to employ this technology, today, for any kind of business application.

Ethereum can't scale to fit its user base requirements in its current incarnation.
It could be fixed, but it would impact the current infrastructure and already deployed smart contracts' functionality
and finances.
If I had to start a similar project, consisting of math/cryptography specialists, scientists and engineers,
the latter should be in charge of the project's reins, since they would make things work at all costs.
Math/crypto specialists should be relegated to a 2nd plane, together with scientists, who should focus on
writing papers, and do research. On the other hand, engineers should receive most available resources
leaving the core of the math/crypto/science work to the other teams.'

12 Jun 2017

Catatan

ETH is very risky now, I would reccomend banking and watching from afar.

LTC took an unexpected hit together with BTC, fundamentals would imply it should fare better than BTC, but the market might think otherwise, maybe due to risks of chinese regulations this month, and most coins concentrated in China. If LTCBTC breaks yesterday's low I would be inclined to get out of it but not out of the BTC short.

12 Jun 2017

Trading ditutup secara manual

I am out of all altcoin trades, except my peerplays stake. I think all coins can get a correction or consolidation now, it might not be beneficial to be long in any of them, even paired against BTC. Not worth the risk. I took a minor hit, but the BTC and ETH shorts I opened are faring well. Let's see how low we go and for how long.