bearish reversal pattern

17 Mar

### **1. Bearish Technical Indicators**
- **Rising Wedge Breakdown**: chart shows a rising wedge, a bearish reversal pattern. Price has already broken below the lower trendline, signaling potential downside momentum.
- **Bearish Divergence**:
- The **RSI** is making lower highs while the price made higher highs → Indicates weakening buying strength.
- The **MACD** also shows a bearish divergence, meaning momentum is slowing down.
- **Moving Average Rejection**: The price is testing short-term moving averages (red and blue lines). If it fails to reclaim them, more downside is likely.

### **2. Fundamental & News Factors Supporting a Sell**
- **Stronger U.S. Dollar**:
- If the **USD is rising**, cotton (which is priced in dollars) becomes more expensive for international buyers, leading to lower demand and falling prices.
- **Weak Demand from China**:
- China is a major cotton importer. If their economic data (like retail sales or industrial output) is weak, it signals lower demand for cotton, pushing prices lower.
- **Higher Cotton Inventories**:
- If recent USDA or global reports show higher-than-expected cotton supply, that adds to selling pressure.
- **Seasonal Pressure**:
- Cotton prices often decline after seasonal peaks, especially if new harvests increase supply.

### **Conclusion**
- **Technical Breakdown** (wedge break, bearish divergence) +
- **Fundamental Pressure** (stronger USD, weaker demand, high supply) → **Bearish Outlook**

If these factors continue, selling cotton could be a solid trade. Do you want to discuss potential targets or stop-loss levels?

**(Not Financial Advice: Do your own research before trading.)**

19 Mar

Catatan

Trade is Active

19 Mar

Catatan

first target done change stop loss to break even :)

26 Jun

Trading ditutup: target tercapai

im reverse now on long