Macro offshore renminbi compared to USD

13 Apr 2022

Monthly chart so much more macro. Theoretically, the way this could play out is that it falls out of the rising wedge to retest the 72/89 EMA cloud. After that, its make or break on falling back in line with the broader downward channel or to send it and bounce off that EMA cloud. The interesting note is the implications of what a bounce off the EMA cloud means... foreign countries holding the CNH. Macro-wise, could be signaling a shift in preferred currencies which I would assume would be due to emerging markets dumping the USD in favor of the CNH.

Big speculation. Who knows!

21 Apr 2022

Catatan

Moving much faster than expected. China was doing some PR yesterday to try and boost confidence in the currency and it appears the market is not buying it. Still losing out on demand for currency relative to USD.

Next steps in this is the retest of the downtrend and the 72/89 EMA cloud. CNY will need to bounce and rally from that point or it will capitulate back down below the downtrend.