The Oil War
Diupdate
Oil is strictly tied to dollar price (petrodollar).
World investors/consumers are under tremendous pressure, with absolute oil price exploding, coupled with an explosive dollar. They have to pay the cost for both...
US investors enjoy a very competitive oil price (compared to treasuries). This year an investment in USOIL was very negatively performing compared to treasuries.
Do note that there is a discrepancy between consumer oil (USOIL) and investment oil (USOIL/modified-yields).
Rate hikes are not for inflation, they are for economic war advantage. During a war period, and in a deglobalized world, you need substantial purchasing power to import, and selectively export goods.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
World investors/consumers are under tremendous pressure, with absolute oil price exploding, coupled with an explosive dollar. They have to pay the cost for both...
US investors enjoy a very competitive oil price (compared to treasuries). This year an investment in USOIL was very negatively performing compared to treasuries.
Do note that there is a discrepancy between consumer oil (USOIL) and investment oil (USOIL/modified-yields).
Rate hikes are not for inflation, they are for economic war advantage. During a war period, and in a deglobalized world, you need substantial purchasing power to import, and selectively export goods.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
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Question: How big a difference will there be, if yields reach upwards of 7%?Catatan
I obsess about these yield transformations...Look at the following comparison between DXY and US10Y
First DXY/US10Y
Next DXY/(US10Y+1+1/US10Y)
Absolutely beautiful...
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Honestly... this DXY chart doesn't really support the Dollar Milkshake. I could be wrong on this one though.It looks like we are in a 2002-2006 situation in this chart.
If anything, we could be even missing the parallel channel (drawn with lin-log regression)
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Don't mind me, I am just messing around...I drew some trendlines on RSI and plotted them on the price chart.
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Commodities are bull-flagging compared to the true SPX value.And compared to total money earned from bonds.
Beautiful huh???
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These charts above describe the following:The producers of precious materials, energy etc are bull-flagging compared to basically everything else. The gains from the production of Gold, Oil, Silicone, Lithium, Farmland, Electricity etc will get astronomical compared to everything else, everywhere in the world.
Now THAT is a reason for war.
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Absolutely perfect...The standard USOIL chart (CL2!) doesn't show this kind of symmetry.
And it makes sense, oil price is strictly bound (petrodollar) to dollar value (yields).
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I should have divided with M2SL from the beginning, oh well...Dividing by yields*M2SL is the true cost (value) of total money printed. Total Oil worth is compared to total money worth.
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Oil officially broke out?Catatan
Could it be that, maybe, just maybe that the inflation chart can be analyzed like everything else?
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