Oil's Descent: Triangles, Elliott, Reversion, & Backwardation
Diupdate
In this analysis, we will delve into the oil market’s current state and explain why a significant reversal is imminent.
Contracting Triangle
Oil has been forming a contracting triangle since the beginning of May. The lead-up to the triangle was bearish, so statistically, the breakout should also be bearish. The upper extreme of the triangle is at $84.45, but prices could advance up to $87.67 before invalidating the bearish breakout.
Wave C of E of X
According to Elliott Wave analysis, contracting triangles form five waves (i.e., A, B, C, D, E). Typically, each of those five waves subdivides into a zigzag (i.e., A, B, C). We can clearly count five waves of the triangle and three waves of the final zigzag, indicating that the reversal should occur at any moment.
Mean Reversion
On the daily timeframe, oil has approached the overbought level on three different mean reversion indicators. It has been overbought since June 17, according to the Stochastic Oscillator, and it will be overbought according to RSI and Bollinger Bands at $85.09.
Backwardation
Backwardation, where forward contracts are traded below the expected spot value at maturity, often signifies a bullish outlook for crude oil. However, it can also indicate short-term market stress caused by buyers' panic over excess demand or insufficient supply. This scenario often results from an overreaction, and as future supply and demand expectations come into balance, the oil market tends to experience a selloff towards more rational pricing. Given the current strong state of backwardation in oil futures, this dynamic could unfold, contributing to the next market downturn.
Executing the Bearish Strategy
As this is a countertrend trade, risk should be tight, and one’s stop loss should be adhered to religiously. While unlikely, if prices were to continue their ascent, and you have a wide or flexible stop loss, you could experience a substantial loss.
I believe the best place for a stop loss would be just beyond the end of intermediate wave C at $87.68. If prices move beyond this level, it would invalidate the Elliott analysis and offer a strong indication of a bullish breakout from the triangle. As long as prices hold below this level, the outlook would remain bearish, unless a strong consolidation pattern forms near these highs.
If the analysis is correct and we do see a bearish breakout, prices could easily decline to $65, possibly lower. This would be a reasonably conservative target, but I am planning a discretionary exit as price action develops.
As for entry, this is a personal decision. I see three possible options:
Good luck, everyone!
Contracting Triangle
Oil has been forming a contracting triangle since the beginning of May. The lead-up to the triangle was bearish, so statistically, the breakout should also be bearish. The upper extreme of the triangle is at $84.45, but prices could advance up to $87.67 before invalidating the bearish breakout.
Wave C of E of X
According to Elliott Wave analysis, contracting triangles form five waves (i.e., A, B, C, D, E). Typically, each of those five waves subdivides into a zigzag (i.e., A, B, C). We can clearly count five waves of the triangle and three waves of the final zigzag, indicating that the reversal should occur at any moment.
Mean Reversion
On the daily timeframe, oil has approached the overbought level on three different mean reversion indicators. It has been overbought since June 17, according to the Stochastic Oscillator, and it will be overbought according to RSI and Bollinger Bands at $85.09.
Backwardation
Backwardation, where forward contracts are traded below the expected spot value at maturity, often signifies a bullish outlook for crude oil. However, it can also indicate short-term market stress caused by buyers' panic over excess demand or insufficient supply. This scenario often results from an overreaction, and as future supply and demand expectations come into balance, the oil market tends to experience a selloff towards more rational pricing. Given the current strong state of backwardation in oil futures, this dynamic could unfold, contributing to the next market downturn.
Executing the Bearish Strategy
As this is a countertrend trade, risk should be tight, and one’s stop loss should be adhered to religiously. While unlikely, if prices were to continue their ascent, and you have a wide or flexible stop loss, you could experience a substantial loss.
I believe the best place for a stop loss would be just beyond the end of intermediate wave C at $87.68. If prices move beyond this level, it would invalidate the Elliott analysis and offer a strong indication of a bullish breakout from the triangle. As long as prices hold below this level, the outlook would remain bearish, unless a strong consolidation pattern forms near these highs.
If the analysis is correct and we do see a bearish breakout, prices could easily decline to $65, possibly lower. This would be a reasonably conservative target, but I am planning a discretionary exit as price action develops.
As for entry, this is a personal decision. I see three possible options:
- Wait for prices to climb a little higher (less risk at entry if successful, with a chance of entering lower with more risk if unsuccessful).
- Wait for prices to decline a bit to confirm the analysis (higher probability of a winning trade, with greater initial risk at entry).
- Enter now (somewhere in between options 1 and 2).
Good luck, everyone!
Catatan
While prices reached and bounced off of the upper trend line of the triangle today, there is still potential for another push up. It is not uncommon for wave E of a triangle to penetrate the trend line. While this isn't required (and I personally wouldn't bet on it), it is helpful to keep in mind through tomorrow's trading session.Catatan
We've seen a rejection of the triangle's upper trend line both on Tuesday and again on Thursday. Since the open last night, there seems to be a lot of selling pressure. So this may be the start of the decline.Trade aktif
Today's decline was a great day for this position. It's a boost of confidence for the analysis. However, I noticed that oil's decline lagged the decline of most other major commodities including gold, corn, soybeans, etc. I DO NOT like to play catch up with laggards. Hopefully, oil will have a stronger decline tomorrow, but I'm moving my stop loss to $84.39 (just above Friday's high) due to today's relative strength.Trading ditutup secara manual
Oil appears to be consolidating under the upper trend line of the triangle and the latest COT report indicates that commercials (smart money) have a neutral position in the market. Consequently, I'm closing my position in anticipation of a breakout above the trendline. Prices may still decline as indicated in this analysis, but I no longer feel the same level of confidence and I would rather get out now with a small profit.
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