CELH to the moon

30 Jul 2020

Look at text

30 Jul 2020

Catatan

Base 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Terminal Year
Revenue Growth Rate 42.00% 41.00% 40.00% 38.00% 36.00% 34.00% 32.00% 30.00% 20.00% 20.00% 5%
Revenues $88,846,000 $126,161,320 $177,887,461 $249,042,446 $343,678,575 $467,402,862 $626,319,835 $826,742,182 $1,074,764,837 $1,289,717,805 $1,547,661,365 $1,625,044,434
Operating Margin 0.25% 11.01% 17.09% 20.53% 22.47% 23.57% 24.19% 24.54% 24.74% 24.85% 24.92% 25.00%
EBIT $218,246 $13,888,353 $30,404,007 $51,128,654 $77,236,717 $110,176,188 $151,524,729 $202,913,905 $265,919,873 $320,549,762 $385,640,422 $406,261,108
Taxes $0 $0 $0 $8,139,504 $19,309,179 $27,544,047 $37,881,182 $50,728,476 $66,479,968 $80,137,441 $96,410,106 $101,565,277
EBIT(1-t) $218,246 $13,888,353 $30,404,007 $42,989,151 $57,927,538 $82,632,141 $113,643,547 $152,185,429 $199,439,905 $240,412,322 $289,230,317 $304,695,831
+ Depreciation $143,528 $198,069 $269,373 $360,960 $476,468 $619,408 $743,289 $891,947 $936,545 $983,372 $1,032,541 $1,084,168
- Capital Expenditures $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $54,763,717
- Chg WC $6,600,000 $3,500,700 $4,852,637 $6,675,335 $8,878,195 $11,607,072 $14,908,639 $18,802,425 $23,268,001 $20,165,601 $24,198,721 $7,259,616
FCFF -$6,238,226 $10,585,722 $25,820,744 $36,674,776 $49,525,810 $71,644,476 $99,478,197 $134,274,951 $177,108,449 $221,230,093 $266,064,136 $243,756,665
NOL $62,863,000 $48,974,647 $18,570,639 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Terminal Value $3,994,046,617

30 Jul 2020

Catatan

This assumes a market risk premium of 6.5% and terminal growth rate of 32.1%. It should be noted during Monster's 44% CAGR period between 2012 and 2014, stock price appreciated from $6 to a blow of top of $28 roughly 18 months later. Celsius is showing similar sales velocity during cost consolidation and DSD transitions. Low side target of $19.71 and high side of $26.42, largely dependent on market risk premium of 6.5% and 5.5%, respectively.

5 Sep 2020

Catatan

Almost perfect valuation at the top!