Trade report of 16-1
CADCHF: After days of sideways movement, the up-trend appears to have found its way back up. executed a buy at 0.63738.
News:
Markets are running too far ahead of the music with expectations for interest rate cuts because the battle against inflation has not yet been won. Gita Gopinath, deputy director at the International Monetary Fund, said this on Tuesday during a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos. According to the IMF economist, it is likely that interest rates will drop sometime this year, but she is thinking more about the second half of this year. Markets are currently pricing in six rate cuts of 25 basis points for both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. With such a pace of reductions, the policy interest rate in both currency areas would be 1.50 percentage points lower at the end of 2024. According to Goldman Sachs, the Fed will take the first step in March and the ECB in April, chief economist Jan Hatzius of the investment bank wrote in a report published on Monday. The Fed itself assumes three interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year.
Speech from Governor Christopher J. Waller: Thank you, David Wessel, and thank you to Brookings for the opportunity to speak with you today. In the second half of 2023, I delivered a series of speeches addressing the apparent conflict between the strength of economic activity in the third quarter and continued progress toward the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) 2 percent inflation target.1 I said then: 'Something has to be done' – activity must moderate or progress in reducing inflation will stop. At the end of November, the latest economic data encouraged me that there were signs of moderating economic activity in the fourth quarter, but that inflation was still too high.
As of today, the data has been received even better. Real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to have grown between 1 and 2 percent in the fourth quarter, unemployment is still below 4 percent and core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation has been near 2 percent. . For a macroeconomist, this is about as good as it gets.
But will it last? Time will tell whether inflation can be sustained on its recent path and will allow us to conclude that we have achieved the FOMC's price stability objective. Time will tell whether this can happen while the labor market is still performing above expectations. Based on the data we have received in recent months, the committee may consider lowering the policy rate in 2024. However, concerns about the sustainability of these data trends require that changes in the policy trajectory be carefully calibrated and not rushed. Ultimately, I have more confidence that the economy can continue on its current trajectory.
News:
Markets are running too far ahead of the music with expectations for interest rate cuts because the battle against inflation has not yet been won. Gita Gopinath, deputy director at the International Monetary Fund, said this on Tuesday during a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos. According to the IMF economist, it is likely that interest rates will drop sometime this year, but she is thinking more about the second half of this year. Markets are currently pricing in six rate cuts of 25 basis points for both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. With such a pace of reductions, the policy interest rate in both currency areas would be 1.50 percentage points lower at the end of 2024. According to Goldman Sachs, the Fed will take the first step in March and the ECB in April, chief economist Jan Hatzius of the investment bank wrote in a report published on Monday. The Fed itself assumes three interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year.
Speech from Governor Christopher J. Waller: Thank you, David Wessel, and thank you to Brookings for the opportunity to speak with you today. In the second half of 2023, I delivered a series of speeches addressing the apparent conflict between the strength of economic activity in the third quarter and continued progress toward the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) 2 percent inflation target.1 I said then: 'Something has to be done' – activity must moderate or progress in reducing inflation will stop. At the end of November, the latest economic data encouraged me that there were signs of moderating economic activity in the fourth quarter, but that inflation was still too high.
As of today, the data has been received even better. Real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to have grown between 1 and 2 percent in the fourth quarter, unemployment is still below 4 percent and core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation has been near 2 percent. . For a macroeconomist, this is about as good as it gets.
But will it last? Time will tell whether inflation can be sustained on its recent path and will allow us to conclude that we have achieved the FOMC's price stability objective. Time will tell whether this can happen while the labor market is still performing above expectations. Based on the data we have received in recent months, the committee may consider lowering the policy rate in 2024. However, concerns about the sustainability of these data trends require that changes in the policy trajectory be carefully calibrated and not rushed. Ultimately, I have more confidence that the economy can continue on its current trajectory.
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Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.