Interpretation of cryptocurrency market on Dec 2 2022

The market continued to maintain a small oscillation yesterday. In mid-December CPI and the Fed's rate resolution before the announcement, the market has a low probability of greater volatility. The main reason for this judgment is that the current market is heavy with wait-and-see sentiment and a relatively negative atmosphere. New events are needed to stimulate the market. And the interest rate resolution has this weight.

If the Fed's rate hike has explored the bottom, the impact of the subsequent data will decline. This judgment has also been correct several times. The data released in previous months only produced a trim level of volatility at the time of publication. But this time is different because the future direction of the Fed is likely to take a stand in this speech.

At present, the global inflation problem is severe. The unprecedentedly significant rate hikes by central banks have curbed the worsening inflation's momentum but are still far from the target value. This also shows that the actual effect of pure liquidity regulation could be better. In addition to the monetary policy regulation, inflation has another angle to address - the supply chain.

Europe and the United States are currently imposing sanctions on Russia in commodities and energy. There are also sanctions against China on semiconductors and chips. The epidemic also affects the supply chain to some extent. So if the Fed can mention the relevant views in the follow-up speech, let the market see that the U.S. has other dimensional solutions besides monetary policy. Then the market will go by the positive reading.

In addition, the slowdown in rate hikes has been widely interpreted as positive by the market. If the meeting can deepen the views mentioned above and appropriate dovish remarks, the same will be positive.

On the contrary, in addition to the unpredictable "Black swan," there will be nothing more. How hawkish the Fed is, again, under the current interest rates can only be interpreted by the market as a tough mouth.

In addition, NFP data will be released tonight, but the impact is relatively limited. If you want the market to continue to rise, then a decline in data would be better. The recessionary expectations of the economy are still favorable to the market rally for now.