Bitcoin BTC Seems Like Everyone Is Blind or I Am

25 Mar 2022

We are definitely going to find out which is the case. If you've been following my updates, you know I mainly focus on Macro. So it is hard for me to get caught up in short-term movements, especially in such a downtrend, but something I MUST acknowledge is you can NOT stay biased when signs point to the opposite. The market doesn't care about your convictions. Adapt; it is most important.

That being said, usually, when a pattern is rather obvious, it rarely plays out as expected. The bigger entities play off of this emotion and use it to their advantage. That is their game and their edge.

Im seeing a lot of wedges and triangles in this area, but no upwards channel (Bear Flag- Coming off a downtrend). I genuinely think this is arguably the most valid trendlines.

Here is Log Scale for a different perspective,


Now I will say, there have been some rather large entities buying massive amounts of Bitcoin to back their stable coins (most notably LUNA). LUNA is apparently buying 125 Million worth of BTC's every day until they reach 1,250,000,000.
This likely has been the reason it has basically been trading 44k for weeks now.

I am very cautious going forward, not only from a TA perspective but FA as well. Here is a detailed Fundamental Analysis on the SPX, which ultimately will be the real decider where BTC goes Short/Medium Term;

Thanks again for all the support. Any comments are encouraged down below, open to all perspectives;

28 Mar 2022

Catatan

Here is a small update on the chart after BTC has started heading towards the top of the channel as expected. If you have followed previous posts, you know BTCs favorite time to pump is at the end of the month and what do you know.

So far nothing has changed from my TA perspective and now it is time to closely watch how price reacts in this red zone indicated below. Any break out above the red zone indicated would very likely suggest continuation to the upside.

If there is a break back below the red zone, then further downside is expected.


Price finally pushed the RSI upwards towards the long-term resistance on the Daily and this is where I believe is the most important. BTC is always approaching the 200MA on the Daily as well which is significant resistance. Again, if BTC continues to ignore these levels, the trend is likely changing. Until then, I remain very cautious.

30 Apr 2022

Catatan

It's rather unfortunate soo many people follow some of these bigger accounts on TV and blindly follow their analyses that are purely based on hopes and dreams. It's a fact that most novice traders have lost most of their capital as we have experienced this 7-month downtrend. Think about the number of bullish charts that have risen to the top page of TradingView every step of the way. They are all praised when at the top of the page but forgotten about when they are invalidated. All it took was one simple analysis to dispel all the noise and yet I'm still seeing the exact same things currently. I hardly ever see anyone develop anything fundamental into their analysis and it is a real shame. So much is to be learned in times like these and so many are just not taking the right steps to learn what matters. Im trying my best to do this for everyone and share my knowledge since I'm so bothered by the lack of others doing it. It takes more than just TA to survive in this environment. It takes the big picture, not the sections that cater to your bias. Remember this.

9 Mei 2022

Catatan

Is anyone still watching this chart?

9 Mei 2022

Catatan

Anyone at all????

11 Mei 2022

Catatan

Sometimes I over-analyze and get caught up in the momentum. Judging by this analysis which has proven to be pretty great so far, this is likely the short-term bottom!