預料中的下跌? Expected Decline?

4 Jul

This is the updated path chart.
The previous version was laughed for a while after it was released, but now it shouldn't be funny anymore.
Strictly speaking, it is still a normal correction at the moment.

這張是重新整理後的路徑圖
之前的版本釋出後 被笑了一陣
不過現在應該笑不出來了吧

嚴格講 目前還是正常回調



Let's start with the Fibonacci
From the bottom up, it hasn't even touched 0.786 (strong) yet.
By "normal" non-strong standards, the target should be between 0.786 and 0.618.
If it is weak, it could be troublesome, as it might fall below 0.5 or even 0.236 (which mostly happens with non-BTC assets).

Looking at the segment from 43k, it's not good news currently, as it has directly broken below 0.618 to 0.5.
However, given the rapid rise, I think this is a healthier direction since rapid surges are not beneficial.
Technically, a triangle has been broken downward. According to the triangle breakout rule, it might return to 43k. This number is significant:
1 This is the starting point of this wave and also 0.618 from the bottom.
2 In terms of time projection, if it continues to break down here, it might be the bottom of the ascending channel.
3 In terms of prediction, this is also the bottom of one of the paths (red).

簡單的先從FIB來看

大時空範圍來說 從底部算起目前連0.786 (強勢） 都還沒摸到
”正常” 非強勢的標準來看 目標應該是 0.786～0.618 之間
而弱勢就不妙了 低於0.5 甚至0.236 （大部分發生在非BTC上）

而從43k這段來看 目前是不是好消息 因為直接跌破0.618到0.5
但是以這一段的漲幅來說 我認為這是比較健康的方向
畢竟拉昇的速度太快不是好事

形態上有個三角被向下突破 這邊如果按照三角突破法則來看 有可能會回到43k 這個數字需要注意
第一 這是這波的起點 同時是底部上來的0.618
第二 時間推論 如果繼續下破這裡可能剛好是上升通道的底部
第三 預測回推來看 這邊也是其中一個路徑的底部 （紅色)


Looking at the shorter time frame:
BTCUSDT
Currently, there are roughly four path scenarios to consider.
Statistically, the probability of the purple path is high because it matches four measurement methods.
However, because it fits the analysis too well, could it be a trap?

目前規劃大致上有4個路徑規格 可以參考

而機率上 紫色路徑的機率很高
原因是這個路徑符合了4個測量方式
但是也因為太過符合分析
是否有可能是一個陷阱？


Regardless, we should still execute according to discipline.
Is there a chance that this is just an overshoot and a reversal is imminent?
This possibility cannot be ruled out, but it will take time to digest the sentiment.
Personally, I entered the market today because this is considered a potential reversal area.
However, if the situation continues to deteriorate or if it fails to effectively break through the descending trendline (orange),
I will temporarily exit to hedge when it breaks below the descending channel.

不管如何依然按照紀律執行即可

而現在有沒有機會只是超跌 馬上要進行反轉
這個可能性不能說沒有
但是需要時間去消化情緒

個人是有在今天進場買入
主要是因為這邊算是一個潛在反轉區
但是如果情況持續惡化或者是無法有效突破下降趨勢線（橘色）
我會在跌破下降通道後暫時離場避險

Wishing all luck.
祝各位 操作順利