Back below $7000 after the halving?
Hello fellow traders. This is an update to my previous weekly analysis on BTC.
The head and shoulders on the hourly chart didn’t play out however that was merely the shortcut down, the trend has tended downward overall since the recent peak.
Now as the red circles indicate top formations for BTC tend to be quite volatile with very long wicks. The top near $20000 showed such a candlestick that was Violated in the subsequent week but not after that. Similarly the top near $14000 was also punctuated with long volatile wicks and then a steep decline. The subsequent corrective rallies have also been distinguished by tis pattern albeit not as extreme.
If this analysis is correct there is one of two ways I assume this pattern will unfold.
Scenario 1 assumes that the halving is already priced in and that we have topped, leading to 0.618 retracement down to $6000
Scenario 2 assumes that we will still get some pre halving madness and jump off the low to mid 8000s and either revisit the high or possibly even cross it potentially up to the trend line at around $11000 (a figure we might have reached without covid -19). Followed by 0.618 retrace down to $6500.
We could go lower potentially than 6000 but I think these moves will be more gradual and contained by the ascending trend line at the bottom of the chart.
Thanks for your time and please do comment. I’m sorry about the long post but I do hope u get something of value from it (even if it’s the opposite opinion).
The head and shoulders on the hourly chart didn’t play out however that was merely the shortcut down, the trend has tended downward overall since the recent peak.
Now as the red circles indicate top formations for BTC tend to be quite volatile with very long wicks. The top near $20000 showed such a candlestick that was Violated in the subsequent week but not after that. Similarly the top near $14000 was also punctuated with long volatile wicks and then a steep decline. The subsequent corrective rallies have also been distinguished by tis pattern albeit not as extreme.
If this analysis is correct there is one of two ways I assume this pattern will unfold.
Scenario 1 assumes that the halving is already priced in and that we have topped, leading to 0.618 retracement down to $6000
Scenario 2 assumes that we will still get some pre halving madness and jump off the low to mid 8000s and either revisit the high or possibly even cross it potentially up to the trend line at around $11000 (a figure we might have reached without covid -19). Followed by 0.618 retrace down to $6500.
We could go lower potentially than 6000 but I think these moves will be more gradual and contained by the ascending trend line at the bottom of the chart.
Thanks for your time and please do comment. I’m sorry about the long post but I do hope u get something of value from it (even if it’s the opposite opinion).
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