On the WEEKLY Chart (looking long) > NVT indicator on the edge of the critical line of 150. Historically once this is broken below, there has been a strong down trend > 10 EMA is being touched, if this is broken, it will be a temporarily a bearish sign, as it will the 1st time this year to be broken. > MACD heading towards bearish trend, histogram dropping in levels > Current price at the 0.382 level, a critical support level. > The Weekly candle support line is 8900 as a major support line, complemented by the position of the 2/1 fib fan
On the DAILY Chart (looking long) > NVT indicator has dropped below the critical line of 150. Historically once this is broken, there has been a strong down trend. > RSI is heading south towards oversold region...still has more room to go. > The 55 EMA will act as resistance and the next level of support is the 100 EMA, complemented or acknowledged as well by the 2/1 fib fan. > MACD histogram is looking bearish strong > Momentum to the down side slowed down by the current strong support level held at 9200 to 9500 range, it could be either a consolidation or an accumulation area.
On the 4 HRLY Chart > The bounce or follow through looks week, no large volume (32 min left). > 9K is the last level of support for this juncture. > The bounce seemed to be premature at 9214 price. > RSI shows no bullish divergence, and other indicators don't give any short term direction for bullish. < 10 EMA looks long away as a resistance and support at 9400 looks week on the 1 HRLY chart.
LOWER time frames > 1 hrly chart, 10 EMA acting as resistance > RSI lingering in the bottom layer of the chart, bearish still > ADX, DI looks bearish > Volume looks disappointing
BTC dominance: Its hit an all time high for this year, signified by the red resistance line. 69.6% Looking for a drop in BTC dominance to the 10 EMA, so a slight advantage for the short term for the ALTs. Next dominance target, 76%, so more bad news for ALT holders.
Conclusion: Looking for a bounce off 8900 to 9000 and another rally up before heading down to 7500 to 8200 Range.
WEEKLY Chart:
DAILY Chart:
4 HRLY Chart:
1 HRLY and 2 HRLY Chart:
CME BTC Future Chart:
BTC Dominance:
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Sometimes visual aid helps significantly, Heikin Ashi chart.
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The 4 HRLY Chart view. Low 9K will not last long as a support.
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Hitting a main resistance. We need to see an open and close above this for the next stage which is above the 21 MA on the 4 HRLY
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Just for the record, we did have a H&S perfectly on the mark where it dropped.
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progress update: 55 EMA on the HRLY still resistance
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Final words for this post. So far none of the key levels have been passed decisively or past. Hence still a down trend and target is the 8500 to 8700 where I'm planning to go long...if all things look good. Note, there might be a few bounces along the way like 8900. This daily with the 55 EMA and 50 SMA has not had a open and close above it, until this happens, I don't see a change to the current direction nor my bias to the downside.
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I believe I found the formation its becoming, if you want to know, respond to me and I will share.
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