--- Mid-term Analysis for the next coming 4 weeks to 3 months - Based on Daily Chart -------
BTC/USDT: Neutral between 19400 and 24900 (Caution)
Context - The Global Crypto market leads by BTC and ETH reversed a new bullish trend this summer - however the market is now challenging the capacity to go higher, 24900 never been reintegrated - The global macro remains bearish (Crypto + Stocks market) leads by hawkish ton from central bank and a further inflation risk context - BTC could outperform ETH in order to let ETH be aligned in term of price with ETH
Graphical Resistance = 24900 & 28800 Graphical Support = 19400
- Mathematical Indicators: EMA ( Exp Moving averages) are resistances at 24900 = Bearish RSI indicator (below) is below 5% with no divergence = Bearish
- Elliot & Harmonic Wave (Fibonacci): A last drop to draw the wave 5 C (4) has been completed - however 24900 never been surpassed Fibonacci resistance of the wave (3) = 28800 Fibonacci support of the wave (2) is 19400 Fibonacci upside target = 32600 Fibonacci downside target = 16100 / 14600 / 12400
Conclusion
Combining the fondamental situation (Global macro fighting against inflation with hawkish ton from FED) + Technical Elements , it now hard to find element to call for a further recovery, it is better to protect the gains from the summer and wait for clearer situation
Neutral : We turn Neutral between 19400 and 24900, a break below 19400 would validate a further downside towards 16100 first max 14100 for the moment - Only a strong short-squeeze reintegrating 24900 would jeopardize the bear market.
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