Bitcoin (BTC/XBT) Daily Long&Short Trade Setups 2021/03/17

Market Overview
  • Price Action: Bitcoin took a large dump after establishing a new AllTimeHigh @ 62K. It has found a temporary bottom at 53K, but is still at risk of a larger fall unless we start to break some resistance levels to the upside, including the 200MAs, the upper end of the ascending channel, and finally the 61.8 Fib.
  • Patterns: There is an ascending channel that price is so far following. Price should continue to go up in this channel. It will be critical for price to break above this channel, otherwise it risks being a very large bear flag that leads to a much larger 2nd leg of the dump.
  • Areas of Interest: The area(s) of interest for me are the 61.8 Fib @ 58.6K and the Support @ $53.2. Once price reaches one of these areas, I will monitor for entry confirmations. If the entry confirmations are aligned, I will take a trade and share the my trade in real time. Of course, it is possible we just pump to ATH of 58K directly from here, in which case we will be looking for trading opportunities at that level.


Trade Setups
Below are the potential trade setups that I would be interested in trading:

Long Trade Setup #1: False Breakdown
1. Price Action: Price breaks below the then rapidly climbs above 53.2K, forming a bear trap
2. Trade Entry Confirmations: A breakdown candlestick  followed by a reclaiming candlestick, above average volume on both breakdown candle and reclaiming candle, MACD bottoming

Short Trade Setup #1: Retest and Continuation (61.8Fib)
1. Price Action: Price needs to move back up to the 61.8Fib @ 58.6K and bounce back down.
2. Trade Entry Confirmations: Bearish candlestick pattern, above average volume, MACD topping out

My Recent Trades
  • 2021/ 03/15: I had a winning trade! I entered long @ $$60,000, SL @ $$58,705, price reached a high of $60,633.4, giving a risk reward ratio of 0.5:1.
  • 2021/ 03/01: I had a winning trade! I entered long @ $46,288.00, SL @ $45797.19, price reached a high of $49,470.0, giving a risk reward ratio of 6.5:1.
  • 2021/ 02/28: I had a winning trade! I entered long @ $44,875.0, SL @ $43,800.0, price reached a high of $45,530.6, giving a risk reward ratio of 0.6:1.


DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a financial advisor and this post is NOT financial/investment/trading advice. I am simply sharing what I am doing, and I will not be responsible for any actions you take based on the analysis and comments that I provide. The cryptocurrency market is extremely volatile, and you WILL lose all your money if you are inexperienced! DO NOT risk any money that you cannot afford to lose and always be cautious and manage your risk!

What are your thoughts? Please leave your ideas and analysis in the comments below! Do give the post a like and a follow.
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