BTCUSDT if we break, now is the moment

24 Jul 2021

⭕BTCUSDT Update

Last BTC trade was invalidated, in my opinion it was worth the risk. Now let's take a look at the current formation and compare it to the last retrace from the 30k support that happened on the 26th June.

For this analysis i will focus more on the Ichimoku cloud formation, volumes and some fibs.

What happened on the 26th June?

- We rejected from the 30k level and continued with green candles that had long shadows. This usually spells market indecision biased towards a bullish move.
- The volume of the move was almost double of the current one.
- The ichimoku cloud formation (red cloud) acted as a very strong resistance. The larger the cloud , the more difficult it is to break it. We didn't even attempt at the base of the cloud.

What is happening now?

- We sprung out from the 30k level , helped by some fundamental catalysts (Elon interview, big guys accumulatind, media fomo) and we got back into the previous triangle formation
- Candles are well formed now, the shadows are smaller even if the market is considered as being in extreme fear.

Next step would be to test the base of the cloud and eventually break it.
If you look at the chart you will see that now we have the opportunity to break through the red cloud and cross it, this is due to the fact that we have a bottleneck on the clouds and the conversion line just crossed over.

Another aspect which is more difficult to validate as an argument would be that if we look at the chart with a Wyckoff A/D perspective we can imagine that the last drop that has been a lower low could be acting as a SPRING.

All in all this formation looks good, the fact that the move persists through the week-end , even though its not a real metric, can also be a positive sign.

Bottom line:

My bearish stance is shifting in favor of the bulls. What i am expecting now in order to post clear long trades would be piercing and crossing the red Ichimoku cloud on the 12h chart.

Other aspects to be aware of:
- Daily is undecisive
- 4h is sideways but the triangle has been broken, so we can imagine some quick trades based on that.

Thats all for today, keep safe!