$BTC Bitcoin Leading Diagonal idea

23 Feb 2022

Bitcoin still respecting the lower trend here, and if we can confirm our low, id start looking for a continuation to our 48 and 51,500 target. Tough to find confidence in the markets with all of the outside antagonists to volatility, but im still bullish on a continuation here until we invalidate the wave structure. I have presented a few other confluences with this chart and some of the lower time frame levels as well on my lastest live stream.

One cannot deny the risk to reward in this zone and its also easy to strategize limit orders at some of the levels lower incase we do get another run for the lows. the .886 would put you around 34260, our january lows of 32900, and 30,812 might be strategic areas of intertest. Ive expressed multiple times i do not like the idea of retesting the july lows, and my opinion remains that we are going to pivot soon and continue the movement upward.

The move can always fail, but the idea is, the risk for being wrong only grows the further we move away from support levels and major divergences. This would seem to be a value area for long swings with easy to identify downside targets for stop losses in comparison to potential upside inside of this channel.

23 Feb 2022

Catatan

Looking to the weekly chart here you can see the Class B Bullish divergence continues to mature on the MACD, and the Hidden bullish divergence on the RSI is still valid and at the time of writing was still gaining strength slowly.
I think confirmation of a low here, or in any case, is the part of the puzzle we are missing for continued momentum to the upside. I like the idea of the leading diagonal continuation because its confluent with my belief in the very controlled and intentional moves we have seen from Bitcoin in the last year.

We have to also keep in mind that supply continues to be removed from exchanges at an alarming rate, and the conviction of long term holders and miners is growing as well. Miners especially, have a big influence on the market and with the growing adoption of Bitcoin in lending services both centralized and decentralized, and the investors in mining farms wanting exposure to Bitcoin, its become an incentive to hold Bitcoin and borrow against it rather than sell it off and create a taxable event.

One could also argue that it would be an incentive of Miners to keep the price lower longer as well if they arent selling because they will accumulate more at lower prices. The futures ETF in my opinion was another way for the Wallstreet and large firms, miners included, to keep price suppressed, but also hedge against volatility which could in turn, incentivize holding longer.