BTC - wyckoff analysis (2nd update)

3 Feb 2023

Hi all,

The phase D of distribution schematic in my previous Wyckoff analysis didn't happen. It seems that the small rally of BTC caused a phase Shift.

I think that this small rally is generated by FOMO effects and belief on doveish scenarios after FED decision on rate (+0.25%) and Powell's talk on 1st Feb.

As a consequence, the previous Wyckoff analysis on a distribution is still valid. The Phase D is just delayed and it would happen soon. This means that distribution is almost completed and prices will go down (in short-term).

If the correction starts, I expect that the retest of the longterm trendline will happen in the end and after that BTC will resume its uptrend to retest the key level of 28000s ( cf . my post "BTC bottom is in?" in the Related Ideas).

Thank you for reading this and don't hesitate to comment.

Cheers!

5 Feb 2023

Catatan

We are in phase D of a Wyckoff distribution. Selling pressure increases.
Now $23300 becomes a resistance and prices will naturally driven down to AR support ($22600).

6 Feb 2023

Catatan

Prices has almost touched the AR support ($23600). BTC would bounce a bit here. If and how long this support could hold?

9 Feb 2023

Catatan

BTC is still moving as expected with this plan. Small bounce at $22600 happened yesterday and now this level is being lose.
One can see, during this distribution, that 'red' candle are with high quality than 'green' ones: long body with hjgh volume.

9 Feb 2023

Catatan

Wyckoff range was broken quite fast, but as expected, then BTC is dropping.

The successul retest of the longterm trendline (at around $21000) will be a good sign for bull. If not, there's still one last hope (in my opinion): BTC will bounce after filling the CME gap or touching the MA200D, at around $20000.

Dropping lower to $18000, things would completely change.