BTC/USDT Daily Analysis: Key Levels and Market Trends

Most Relevant Timeframe for Positioning

Given the complexity of the structure and the fact that MTTFI indicates that most short- and medium-term timeframes are trending downward, it may be wise to:
• Monitor the 4H or 8H (or even 12H) for a signal indicating the end of the corrective wave.
• Use the 1D timeframe to map out key support and resistance levels (e.g., 89K / 102K–105K).
• ABC wave structures are particularly visible on short- to medium-term timeframes (1H to 4H). For a more balanced swing trading approach, the 4H timeframe often provides a good middle ground—not too noisy (1H is too fast, 15 min even more so) and not too slow (1D can be delayed).

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Based on the overall analysis:

Major Support Levels
• Around $95,950 (often aligns with the Auto AVWAP-Low on 2H-4H), already tested.
• $93,000–$92,000: A short-term accumulation zone.
• $89,000: A critical pivot point (breaking below it could trigger an extended correction).

Main Resistance Levels
• $97,100–$98,500: Auto AVWAP-High on 2H/4H/8H, areas BTC must reclaim to move higher.
• $102,000–$105,000: A key level frequently referenced (upper resistance, potential “short setup” zone). On the daily timeframe, the Auto AVWAP-High is around 103K.
• If surpassed, this would be a strong signal for BTC to retest 109K or even higher.

Possible Strategies and Recommendations

Short-Term Approach (Scalping/Intraday on 1H–2H)
• Look for running flat or regular flat patterns on the B → C wave to enter long on a bounce toward 97K–100K, then potentially short the resistance if technical conditions suggest it.
• Monitor RSI/BB, HPI, and Koncorde divergences on 2H–4H to pinpoint more precise entry points.

Swing Approach (4H–8H–12H)
• Watch the 93K–95K zone: If BTC holds this level, a rebound to 102K–105K could follow.
• A clear breakdown below 89K on a 1D or 12H close would signal a more prolonged correction (potentially lasting weeks or months).

Confirmation of a New Bull Run
• BTC would need to break decisively above 105K and especially 109K. If this happens, MTTFI would turn green across all timeframes, and sentiment indicators (ISPD Div Pro, Mason’s) could rise toward 0.8–0.9. For now, that scenario remains distant.

General Conclusion
• Indicators: Still point to an uncertain market, more corrective than bullish on lower and medium timeframes. The daily chart is not entirely bearish but hasn’t confirmed a strong recovery either.
• Technical Structure: The current formation suggests an A–B–C structure, possibly a running or regular flat, before the next significant move—either up or down.
• Practical Takeaways:
• Caution is advised until BTC clearly breaks above 97K–98K (and later 102K–105K).
• If the market drops below ~89K, a multi-month correction is likely.
• For shorter-term trades, patterns on the 2H–4H timeframe (with RSI/Koncorde/HPI divergences) will be key to identifying potential rebounds or quick sell opportunities.

Overall, the current technical setup suggests that BTC remains in a complex corrective phase, with a possible last rebound (~102K–105K) before renewed selling pressure. Key support levels (95K, 92K–93K, and especially 89K) will be crucial to watch for confirmation or invalidation of this scenario.