ghost of bitcoins past

Oleh one-two

Diupdate

will it come back to haunt us? where the bulls at? they've gone missing?

Catatan

27k need to hold its last stop for bulls middle term range. bulls have lost if 27k falls.

Catatan

atrocious low time frame charts constant chopping up of traders on 1h charts.

I took a swing trade long near 27.5k got stopped on it , im sitting on sidelines, Will short if i am able to catch a breakdown from 27k.

Catatan

here's a short setup if it breaks below 27k.

Catatan

And a long setup in case it goes up from here.

Catatan

Of course it can stop you out on both trades hahaha aint trading fun

Catatan

i just have the long atm, will short once 27k breaks which it aint broken yet.

Catatan

welp stopped on my long lolz

Catatan

unsure if i want to short just yet though

Catatan

damn it i missed the break but from here if i were to take a position maybe its something like this...Its hard to tell whether its broken as i wasn't watching charts when it broke. cant watch it 24/7 sadly.

Catatan

juz cuz it broke one level doesn't mean its the end though it can always bounce off of other areas and stop u out once again cuz we are all cuks to the market in the end of the day.

Catatan

welp there goes any hope for bulls time to wage cuk for another 100 years.

Catatan

btw if you keep a tight stop it can always wick to stop you out ;)

Catatan

i'd say keep a wider stop, And close manually when price closes back above 27k

Catatan

as u can see the neckline of the H&S is a slope, the re-test can very well go back high to stop out. I'd say as long as price remains below 28k area there's no reason to change a bearish bias on the charts.

If price retests 27k area i'd look to add size to short position, but im unsure if a re-test will happen.

Catatan

Just so we dont get any black swan events and to stay safe i think a stop around 27.8k would invalidate our short position

Catatan

i've kept my stop above the red area here around 27.8k. i dont wanna wake up one day and see price sky rocketing to 35k + and im still stuck short from 26.6k. You never know what happens in market, control the risk, leave the rest to the lord.

Catatan

as with any trader this could end up faking out nothing is certain in trading - if trading was as simple as shorting head and shoulders and getting 10x returns everyone would be bill gates. i enter every trade imagining i already lost that trade

Catatan

with weekend price action coming in soon, I am not sure if i wanna hold any huge short positions on the weekend. :/ this is so so hard.

Catatan

moved my stop up to 28.4k.

Don't want to be a victim of weekend price wicks.

Catatan

will manually exit and start lowering position size if price reclaims 27k area.

Catatan

Honestly with so many people looking at this head and shoulders it could very well end up reversing so never trade without a stop loss. You never know who is gonna get rekt.

Catatan

Invalidation would be a break above the red area for me.

Catatan

27.2k is a good area to watch.

Catatan

closed short from 26.6k at a loss. im outta this move.

Trading ditutup: stop tercapai

Catatan

just a note this sort of movement is very tough to trade. I might short again if price goes down, but as long as price is above 27-27.2k area there should be no urgency to short.

Catatan

will re- short if price loses 27.1k again

Catatan

This could very well end up being a gap-up and wick mvoe

Trade aktif

re-shorted with stop at 28k area.

This time im not taking it outgonna let price stop me out instead.

Catatan

trade invalidation above 27.8k

Catatan

Overall this is very very tough to trade, Below 27k you can say with somewhat certainty support might be broken this range of 27k-27.2k pretty much anything can happen.

Catatan

from this area its more of a 50-50 chance. Not a great place to be short tbf.

Catatan

needs to break 27k with conviction for me to be a bit more confident..

Catatan

chop to death

Catatan

still have my stop this time not doing any decisions and will let price stop me out - dont wanna get chopped up still unsure whether there's break or not, but my bias remains bearish.

Catatan

broke on the smaller time frame but the daily is not looking as much as bearish now. Look how the daily charts never broke below 27k area and even closed higher.. getting more neutral here and started reducing short position size.

Catatan

needs to close below the green area on the daily charts..till then its neutral ranging motion

Catatan

The inverse chart helps you cut your bias. Needs to break 26.8k area on the daily charts for bears to have any power. As long as 26.8k holds, the h&s is not in play.

Catatan

btw candlesticks alone wont be enough to confirm an invalidation

Catatan

Price can always wick and continue down, We need evidence on daily charts 26.8 failing to hold to catch a breakout, but if we wait around for the daily charts to close - the move might as well be finished because bitcoin often dumps very fast. Shorting on short term time frame support breaks gets you chopped up, so there is no easy money here.

Catatan

But with the number of times price has chopped the 26.8k area it has become increasingly difficult to catch a breakout trade on the short term

Catatan

Price hitting 26.7k area again. How long can it hold :/

i dont know when this level might break - I will add to my already short position size if price closes below 26.8k on daily.

Catatan

Price already near todays atr. remains to be seen whether price has what it takes to even break its usual daily atr range.

Catatan

ahh so many would be rekt if price dumps on the weekend. the joys of trading bitcoin is that u can have no life and can sit in front of charts 24/7 while ur social life dies a horrible death

Catatan

this is one of the reason i like stocks, your headache ends after 8-9 hours with plenty of off time in the middle of the day when stocks dont move much. here its just constant neurotic worry.

Catatan

ftx allowed u to use its algo to help u to trade when you weren't in front of screen. but then they stole all our money and ran as well. wish similar features were on binance and bybit.

Catatan

- not the stealing part - the algo part would be cool on binance and bybit - not stealing part.

Catatan

stonks crashing btc following the leader.

Catatan

again , already near todays atr, Bears must really show up hard for price to travel further down from here.

Catatan

getting the timing right on these moves is very hard especially on swing trades. im not even sure support is broken yet looking at inverse charts , seems like more like a swing failure point (SFP) google it.

Catatan

I think a lot of people give moving averages a lot of crap but they tend to capture trend moves pretty well on longer time frames on bitcoin. If you followed a simple moving average long daily strategy you'd have captured all 3 major bull runs in last decade.

Catatan

Trading ditutup: stop tercapai

Got stopped out on that weekend move. Still have the original short from 29k open though. Stopped on the short from 26.6k

Trade aktif

Although i got stopped i still got short from 29k , so i am still short. Only one short position got stopped out

Catatan

Bias is still bearish, Im not really DCA'ing here.

Catatan

This is middle term bias btw ie the next 3-4 months maybe

Catatan

If price goes above 32k then i will turn bullish till then middle term bearish.

Catatan

will start reducing position size if price is able to maintain above 28.5k.

Catatan

only thing you can control is what you risk on a trade.

Catatan

Reeeeeeeeeeeeee??????????

Catatan

wow went to 24k and now its at 30k almost in last 3 days.

I get stopped on my trade above 31k. Must be black rock etf news whatever it is this trade will get invalidated if i get stopped above 31k.

Catatan

they know my stop is at 31111 so they won't touch it :)

Catatan

sitting at -0.9R

Catatan

and if u add all the other losses i've had so far in this trade its close to -3r on this trade alone. tough as hell to trade.

Catatan

i do hold spot btc so thats a positive.

Catatan

That breakout squeeze tho was impressive as hell

only question is the move designed to get liquidity from the hedgers or is this a move of genuine bulls showing up.

Trading ditutup: stop tercapai

got cuked

Trade aktif

i reshorted at 30.4k.

Will take off this short position on daily close above 31k.

Order dibatalkan

well its off for now, but if i feel like this move is motivated to force hedgers out or if it shows any sign of turning back down im re-shorting it.

Trade aktif

again lol

Catatan

im short from 30kish, if price retests 31k area again i will add more,

Fed meeting coming up with potential rate hikes..remains to be seen what happens.

one-two

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