Is Bitcoin ($BTC) heading toward a -50% correction Armageddon?

22 Jun

Is Bitcoin (BTC) heading toward a -50% correction Armageddon? That is what the weekly chart seems to suggest.

I hate to be the pessimistic guy, but you don't need to be a trading and charting expert to see the similarities between 2021 and 2024.

What could trigger this massive correction is the incredible pump that the ETF has created. Imagine, for the first time in its history, Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high BEFORE the halving! That proves how much excitement and overheating the market experienced.

Unfortunately, the stronger the pump is, the harder the correction will be.

We can compare the 2021 chart on a weekly basis, and there are too many similarities for them to be coincidences. Because of the huge ETF pump, the MACD has gone ballistic, and now Bitcoin is way overbought.

The main concern is that it is on the weekly chart, so resetting this indicator will take about 2-3 months, which gives a lot of time for the price to move down and up until we finally reach a reversal, likely after an estimated 50% dump.

In this scenario, the bull run would have a double peak, like the one in 2021, with another bullish phase once the correction is finished, reaching the final goal of this bull run approximately at the end of 2024.

The RSI and volume are also confirming this scenario. The EMAs are positioned at the same distance from the action price.

This scenario is scary. We could see a -80% correction in altcoins.

I hope to read your comments invalidating this idea, because if this happen, I am definitively going back to work at McDonald!

23 Jun

Catatan

This double top pattern's first target is -21% to 55k. Put your seatbelt on.

28 Jun

Trading ditutup secara manual

BTC seems to have some gardian angels who are protecting it to go lower than -20% correction.
It might be that the ETF issuers do not want to get their customers panic sell. 20% is a red line to not cross for them apparently.
Because of that, we might never see more than 20% drop with BTC in the future, regardless of what indicator is bearish or not.
It seems that BTC, even with Germans gov selling, miners selling, US gov selling, McGox selling, is finding buyers who are accumulating.
I will close this dump, all signs are showing strong resilience for BTC and that again, -20% is the max allowed by the trillion $ whales to dump, now that they are in control.
BTC has been institutionalized, we need to adapt our stragegies.
This idea correctly forcasted the dump, let's move to another one.

4 Jul

Catatan

I hate to say it but it seems that this idea was on the spot. Now I hope that it will stop before 50% or altcoins will all die.

8 Jul

Catatan

Sadly the bearish trend seems to confirm my prediction.
- MACD on 2W is still very bearish and it will take at least 2 month to reset.
- Total crypto market cap is dumping to <1T USD soon
- Lot of sellers (US gov, McGOX, Germans etc...)
If we go <50k we will start to see the ETF panic selling since they will be all in negative.
I do not see the end of the tunnel yet.

10 Jul

Catatan

Yo! BTC is pumping! all the influencers are dancing, talking about ATH, saying that we to back to 71k this month etc...
What a bunch of clowns.
- We are still in a macro downtrend
- The S&P 500 is overhearted
- The market is highly manipulated. See how Blackrock bought +500M the day before the correction and after sold every day for weeks. And now! They are buying again!!!

My conclusion:
- We went to 59k, hopefully BTC can stabilize at 58k for a while and go to the next step.
- However if we can keep this price, we are going to have a bearish return to reality that is going to wreck all alt porfolio by 30%

We are in a danger zone. Nothing is certain, it is highly manipulated. The CPI data for June will be released in 2 days.
Everything can happen, so be careful, do not become over excited, and hopefully we will pass through this storm without too many damages.

11 Jul

Catatan

Everything happened as I forecasted in my previous comment. Now we have the SPX500 falling which is not going to help BTC to recover. This pull back after the CPI data release is a great opportunity to buy long your favorite altcoin with a very good entry.
We are close to the end of the worse part of this consolidation.

15 Jul

Catatan

Did Trump saved us from the Armagedon??? Our new crypto super hero triggered a huge pump, mainly driven by retails.
The correction so far has been the biggest in whole cycle (-25%)
It could have been worse. But the ETF started to buy to save us from going lower.
Some big whales do not want to rekt their investors and make them give up these ETF for a more stable and risk free trad market like SPX500
Let see if this correction is finished, it is looking good so far, but it was a week end pump, so let see if we have been saved from Armagedon by super hero Trump?

16 Jul

Catatan

MT.GOX has sent 48,661 BTC to Kraken so that the first batch of distribution to creditors will start as soon as possible.
Kraken anticipate that it will take between 7-15 days to proceed.
This is the first batch. There will be at least 4x of them for a total of 190,000 BTC.
"Brace for impact"
This Trump pump has something that looks like an exit liquidity. Larry Fink CEO of Blackrock is everywhere on TV asking us to buy Bitcoin. They know something.
This pump is the most violent pump since end of Feb 2024 when the ETF where accepted.
USDT treasury has minted +1B of USDT! Either they are pumping BTC with this so that the herd is following and will get rekt, or they anticipate that a lot of BTC will be sold to USDT and are approvisionning the exchanges.
Anyway, something is cooking. Be cautious, this correction might be not finished. A brutal dump now will take a lot of retails by surprise, as everyone is longing right now.

24 Jul

Catatan

Apparently, the MT.Gox event will have a limited impact.
We have a small pull back that was expected after such a huge pump.
So far, with all the good news coming, it is hard to say that the armagedon scenario will play out.
Best case we rebond from 65k resistance.
Worse case drop to 61k for a rebound.
I think that we will never see BTC in the 50k again

5 Agu

Catatan

Now there is war with Israel, now there is Japan adding 0.25 points...
This is an updated BTC chart, showing that on weekly timeframe, we still have a month or more of consolidation.
Sadly this idea was accurate and is developping as planed.