11.04.2021

11 Apr 2021

2021 so far: Things are going roughly as expected. Exposure still same as in February, currently ~95%.

Very little if anything has changed, still expecting >100k Bitcoin by the end of this year. Nothing special happening on the chart, large timeframes are printing higher highs and higher lows, I'll play the trend as long as it's my friend. Also bullish on chain data + low volatility at these heights make me think 62k will not be the top of this cycle yet.

11 Apr 2021

Catatan

Bearish note on the chart:

MHH = marginally higher high.

At mid to late stages of a bull market, marginally higher highs shouldn't happen appear on large timeframes.

February high (58k) was followed by 26% correction.
March high (62k) broke that only by 5.98%, before seeing another sell-off (-18.5% - back to 50k).

I'd like to see a strong higher high before the April close, to keep conviction this bullish. If this doesn't happen, the demand could be drying up.

edit: Write thoughts about the possibility of rounded top tomorrow.

11 Apr 2021

Catatan

Regarding risk management and stop-losses, I'll roughly trend-follow the 50MA during rest of the bull market. There's definitely no alpha there, but I'm willing to give some of the upside away, just in case the rug pull happens prematurely.