BTCUSDT 6h How The Fed meetings affect the BTC price

21 Sep 2022

Today, the attention of participants of all markets: cryptocurrency, stock, etc. chained to the meeting of the Fed and how much they will raise the rate. Forecast +0.75%

Before we analyze on the BTCUSDT chart how the price reacted to the FED and Mr. Powell statement, it is worth understanding one thing:
Indicators of fear and "pain" are simply off the charts. Many investors are already squeezed like lemons from being constantly under stress and fear of the sinking of their deposits and on the psychological edge to give up and what will happen next will not matter. It is during such periods of psychological upheaval that even the slightest positive on the horizon or even the absence of additional negativity can trigger rapid growth. The first wave of growth can be triggered by mass closings of shorts. Closing of short positions (shorts) by large and medium-sized funds or investors is buying on the market, and this is equal to a large green candle up.

Inflation has already peaked, and in late 2022 or early 2023, the Fed rate may be higher than inflation. In this case, the regulator gets the green light for stimulus, starts the "dollar printing presses" at full capacity and the markets soar. This was the case in March 2020, when the markets began to be supported against the background of the Covid-19 crisis, look at the trade history or remember it that way.

Now on the rates announced by the Fed, expectations, fact, and market reaction:
.........................Fact.......Forecast.......Previous
09/21/2022,........................3.25%...........2.50%
27/07/2022,.........2.50%........2.50%...........1.75%
15/06/2022,.........1.75%........1.50%...........1.00%

As we can see from the BTCUSD chart:
- 15.06, the rate was raised by 0.25% higher than expected, at first the prices shot up, but then the minimum was updated by -16%, which set the minimum for 2022.
- On 27.07, the rate was raised to the expected +0.75% and the Bitcoin price increased by almost +17% during the next 3 weeks.
- 21.09 if the rate is raised to the expected +0.75% or less, the markets will undoubtedly soar. If you raise the rate by +1% or more, accelerating the possibility of starting a printing press, a short-term market drop is possible. With this fall, large funds can tear off all the stops of small and medium-sized "long players" and, at increased trading volumes, sharply close shorts and turn into longs. This is a double buy, a large green candle to the upside and a V-reversal on volumes.

Summarizing:
The most negative forecast that can be seen now is a drop in the BTC price to $15800-17200 with subsequent sharp upward buying.
If you are a medium to long-term trader, in our opinion now is the best period to place limit orders below to the "grid buying" in order to get a tasty average price as a result.
Closing old longs is too late, opening new shorts is dangerous.
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22 Sep 2022

Catatan

The main message from Mr. Powell:
- the rate was raised to the expected +0.75%
- it is too early to run the printing press and support the economy, first we will raise the rate above inflation
- planned rate increases on 02.11.22 +0.75%, in December +0.5% (i.e. 4.5% at the end of 2022, but the forecast for reducing the rate of increase is pleasing)

In general, the BTCUSDT price closed the trading day better than SXP500
We have a moderately bullish mood